Both candidates embody what it takes to win in competitive territory: local authenticity rooted in real world experience, a willingness to buck political pressure when it matters, and a record of putting community ahead of party.

Paige Cognetti: A local leader who took on the machine and won

Paige Cognetti’s rise in northeastern Pennsylvania began not by climbing a party ladder, but by taking a broken system head-on.

After years working in government oversight and accountability, Cognetti stepped into Scranton politics in 2019 after Scranton’s mayor was indicted for extortion. When the local Democratic establishment closed ranks around its preferred candidate, she made the bold decision to run as an Independent.

In the 2019 special election for mayor, Cognetti rejected the machine politics that had become the norm in the city and appealed directly to voters by running on a platform of transparency, fiscal responsibility, and reform. She won, becoming Scranton’s first female mayor and sending a clear message that voters wanted clean government and practical leadership.

Two years later, Cognetti ran for a full term as a Democrat and won decisively, continuing her focus on stabilizing city finances, investing in infrastructure, and restoring confidence in local government.

Now she’s running for Congress to defeat Republican Rob Bresnahan, who campaigned on a promise to ban members of Congress from trading stocks, then became one of the most prolific traders in Congress. Bresnahan has made headlines for trades that coincide with his votes – he dumped up to $130,000 in Medicaid provider stock the week before he voted for the largest Medicaid cuts in history. He’s also bought AI stocks while pushing for data centers.

Cognetti’s independence, her willingness to stand up to party insiders, and her results-first type of leadership is exactly why she’s the right candidate for Pennsylvania’s 8th, a swing district that will help determine control of the U.S. House. Cognetti isn’t defined by party labels; she’s defined by delivering for working families, rooting out government corruption, and meeting voters where they are.

Support Mayor Paige Cognetti

Dr. Jasmeet Bains: A Doctor who brings real-world solutions to public service

Dr. Jasmeet Bains comes to politics the same way she came to public life: through service.

A family physician and addiction specialist in California’s Central Valley, Dr. Bains has spent her career on the frontlines of healthcare, treating patients, navigating broken systems, and seeing firsthand how policy decisions affect everyday lives in rural and working-class communities.

When she ran for the California State Assembly in 2022, she did so not as a career politician, but as a doctor determined to fix problems she had lived with every day: lack of access to care, rising costs, and communities too often overlooked by Sacramento and Washington alike.

Since taking office, Dr. Bains has built a reputation as a pragmatic legislator focused on results and standing up for the economic realities of the Valley. She has shown she is willing to break from party pressure when she believes policies would increase costs or threaten local jobs.

As CalMatters observed, Bains “has never been particularly shy about voting ‘no,’ even if it irks her Democratic colleagues,” reflecting her willingness to put her constituents ahead of political convenience.

That independence is rooted in the people she represents. Dr. Bains has made clear that her priority is ensuring Central Valley families can afford to live, work, and build their futures in their own communities. Her approach has earned credibility across a diverse district that expects leaders who understand working-class realities and deliver practical solutions.

In her run for Congress, Dr. Bains brings what Washington desperately needs: real-world experience, independence, and a commitment to fighting for affordability, local jobs, and the communities she serves.

Support Dr. Jasmeet Bains

Support Dr. Jasmeet Bains and Mayor Paige Cognetti

These two races in Trump-won districts will be among Republicans’ top targets in 2026. Incumbents David Valadao in CA-22 and Rob Bresnahan in PA-08 have both been named NRCC “Patriots,” signaling that national Republicans are prepared to pour millions in outside spending into defending these seats. Winning here will take early resources, strong grassroots support, and sustained investment, which is why supporting Dr. Bains and Mayor Cognetti now is critical.

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But a lot of that money goes back to Meta, the fundraising firm, and their texting subcontractor. And the money that makes it to the campaign? Often siphoned off each cycle to candidates who don’t have a chance at winning or are basically guaranteed to win, gerrymandering Democratic dollars in districts where money isn’t needed.

That’s why we formed our Win The Middle slate: incumbents and candidates in Trump-won districts who are doing what it takes to differentiate from the unpopular national brand and win.

So unsubscribe from the emails, Stop2End the texts and read why we think these 12 candidates are worth your money. ALL of them are in districts won by Trump. So don’t reply to the Meta ad, or the YouTube pre-roll, or the fundraising text - go straight to the slate to beat MAGA.

Support The Win The Middle Slate Here

Where To Invest

Pragmatic Incumbents Who Won Trump Districts in 2024: Adam Gray, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Kristen McDonald Rivet, Tom Suozzi, Vicente Gonzalez

These incumbents are among the most endangered, and valuable, members of the Democratic caucus. They’re beating back extremists and holding together the Democratic majority. In Washington’s 3rd, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is seeking a third term. She’s never backed down from a fight, even if it means taking on her own party on immigration or ensuring voters have the right to choose their own representative. Kristen McDonald Rivet was the top over-performer of 2024, running 9 points ahead of a generic Democrat in a district Trump won by 2 points. She’s an independent voice for Michigan’s 8th district (and a guest on our Depolarizers podcast). In New York’s 3rd, Tom Suozzi showed how Democrats can turn immigration into a winning issue. Adam Gray was the only Democrat in 2024 who flipped a district Trump won. He founded the Problem Solvers Caucus in the California legislature and now serves as whip for the Blue Dog Coalition. Texas has been ground zero for the GOP’s efforts to win the midterms by changing the districts. Vicente Gonzalez can win his Texas district because he understands where his voters stand on issues like guns and immigration.

Candidates Who Over-performed in 2024 Who Are Back To Win: Christina Bohannan, Janelle Stelson, Rebecca Cooke

These candidates massively over-performed in 2024, and had the Presidential election been closer, they likely could have won. This year they are back again to beat the extreme MAGA incumbents. Rebecca Cooke is taking on incumbent Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd, who has spent more time fighting his constituents than fighting for them. Last cycle she ran 7 percent ahead of the Democratic ticket and she’s built a broad coalition from Bernie Sanders to the Blue Dog Caucus because of her populist independent brand. Janelle Stelson spent her career as a trusted local news anchor, and that credibility led to her over-performance last cycle. She’s back to finally finish the career of Trump stooge and extremist Scott Perry who hasn’t been representing the voters of PA-10. Christina Bohannan has put up two amazing over-performances against incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and came within 800 votes of winning in 2024. With tariffs hitting Iowa farmers where it hurts, Bohannan has a golden opportunity to flip Iowa’s 1st.

Candidates With Unique Biographies That Can Flip Districts: Jamie Ager, Bobby Pulido, Sarah Trone Garriott, Shannon Bird

These candidates have the type of independent background that can win tough elections. Jamie Ager is running in North Carolina’s 11th with a farming background that can appeal to independent rural voters. Ager calls himself a Mountain Democrat and isn’t afraid to call the party out for failing rural voters. In Texas’s 15th, Bobby Pulido brings a unique background as a Tejano music star. He’s emphasizing a credible vision for border security. In Colorado’s 8th district, Shannon Bird brings bipartisan credibility on crime and opportunity while incumbent Gabe Vasquez has been cutting Medicaid in one of the highest Medicaid districts in the country. And in Iowa’s 3rd, Sarah Trone Garriott, who has over-performed in every state level election she has contested. As a Lutheran minister, she has credibility with Iowa’s Christian community. Her opponent, incumbent Zach Nunn, has been more focused on his next office than representing his current one.

Welcome’s Record

Welcome recently released Deciding to Win, a report that analyzes what Democrats have gotten wrong in recent years and offers a blueprint for how the party can win again. All of the candidates on Welcome’s Win the Middle slate are leaders who are actively deciding to win in the types of districts Democrats need to be able to compete in to win back the House.

In the 2022 and 2024 election cycles, Welcome invested more than $10 million supporting a dozen of the Democratic Party’s most over-performing U.S. House challengers and incumbents. Welcome’s 2024 slate over-performed Kamala Harris in Trump-won districts by an average of nearly six points, demonstrating that candidates who “decide to win” the middle can beat expectations, even on red turf.

Independent analysis by Split Ticket confirms that WelcomePAC’s slate had the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of any Democratic group in 2024.

The Win the Middle slate exhibits Welcome’s commitment to supporting Democrats who represent the center of the country, not the center of the Party.

We can win – especially in Trump districts – by backing leaders with histories of over-performance, good governance, differentiation from the Democratic Party brand, and bucking the status quo. We hope you’ll join us.

Time to Win the Middle

Let’s make a resolution for 2026 – and every year after that – to Win the Middle.

Support The Win The Middle Slate Here

WelcomePAC, the only PAC that exclusively supports Democrats in Trump-won congressional districts, announced four new endorsements for the 2026 cycle: Jamie Ager (NC-11), Shannon Bird (CO-08), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03). They join the eight candidates on Welcome’s Win the Middle slate, bringing the total number of endorsed candidates for the 2026 cycle to 12.

Last week’s endorsements were featured in the Washington Post:

“Centrist Democrats don’t only recalibrate the party to where the voters are, they also provide voters with the nuance that’s needed for people to see the Democratic Party as something other than the toxic brand that it’s become,” said Lauren Harper Pope, the co-founder of WelcomePAC, a centrist political organization that supports Democrats in Trump-won congressional districts. “When are we going to prioritize the ideologies, the values, the vision, the sentiments of the people who are running in places that we wouldn’t necessarily even have a Democrat in office if they were not this type ofDemocrat?”

To that end, WelcomePAC is endorsing six candidates today, putting their organization and money behind Jamie Ager in Western North Carolina, Christina Bohannan in Eastern Iowa, and Sarah Trone Garriott in the district around Des Moines, Bobby Pulido in a Texas district that stretches from near San Antonio to the Rio Grande Valley and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) in SouthTexas. The group is labeling these contests “winnable races where the math says centrists can win.”

Welcome has a proven track record of supporting candidates who over-perform the fundamentals of their districts. Let’s dive into each race.

The Fourth-Generation Farmer Disrupting a North Carolina Gerrymander

Jamie Ager is a populist moderate with a distinct rural identity. He’s centering his campaign on his agricultural roots. As a fourth-generation farmer who focuses on local economic resilience rather than national culture war issues, Ager explicitly campaigns on a willingness to “speak out against [his] own party” to position himself as an independent voice.

His candidacy is built around his small business Hickory Nut Gap Farms, a regional meat producer that allows him to speak authentically about how Trump’s tariffs are punishing America’s farmers. Ager’s platform is explicitly constructed to distance him from the “Asheville liberal” stereotype that Republicans often use as an attack. He is instead running as a “Mountain Democrat” who talks about his faith, his love for America, and his support for the Second Amendment.

His opponent, Rep. Chuck Edwards, defeated Madison Cawthorn by promising reasonableness, but he hasn’t delivered. Edwards supported Republicans’ drastic cuts to Medicaid, abortion restrictions, and he was sanctioned by the bipartisan House Communications Standards Commission for violations concerning official mail communications. He under-performed in his district by 3 points in 2022 and by 1.5 points in 2024.

North Carolina has been defined by incessant Republican gerrymanders, with districts changing multiple times since the last census. The best way for Democrats to derail Republican gerrymandering is by running district-aligned candidates who keep Republicans on the defensive. Jamie Ager is on pace to do that well.

The Iowa Centrists Running Against Tariff Disruptions

It’s indisputable that Trump’s disastrous tariff policies have hurt farmers. The Administration is trying to mop up the damage done with subsidy after subsidy, but farmers don’t want subsidies or excuses – they want smart policy. In few states is that desire more intense than in Iowa, a state where the Democratic Party’s weakness with non-college white voters has been evident. Two Democrats are looking to change that.

In the 2024 cycle, Christina Bohannan had the strongest over-performance by a Democratic challenger in the country. Not only did she over-perform Harris by 8.2%, she ran 11.3 points ahead of a generic Democrat in the district.

Bohannan is running in Iowa’s 1st congressional district. She grew up in a mobile home and worked her way into the middle class, eventually becoming a law professor and state representative. In each of her campaigns, she’s made an intentional effort to talk and meet with voters in rural parts of the district who typically don’t hear from Democrats.

She’s distinguished herself from the party by leading her Democratic colleagues in the state house in support of a bill requiring faculty and students at state universities to be trained each year about free speech rights. Bohannan also publicly opposed Biden’s plan for student loan forgiveness and was early to call for Biden to step down, despite receiving criticism from Democrats in the state for the move.

In 2026, Bohannan faces Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a serial under-performer who lagged by 4.6 points in 2020 (when she won by just six votes), 1.6 points in 2022, and a whopping 11 points in 2024.

Over in Iowa’s 3rd congressional district, Sarah Trone Garriott is running to face Zach Nunn in the general election. A member of the state senate, Sarah is a Lutheran minister and works at an interfaith food pantry. She is one of the few Democrats who leads prayer on the senate floor during the legislative session.

Notably, Sarah is the only Democrat in Iowa to flip two Republican-held state senate seats from red to blue. She first won an open seat in 2020, then beat sitting Senate President Jake Chapman in 2022 by more than 3 points in a district Kim Reynolds carried by seven points, a whopping 10-point over-performance. In 2024, she was the only Democrat to hold a Trump-won Iowa senate district, demonstrating her cross-over appeal with the swing voters that will decide this election.

Her differentiation credentials include filing bills banning state lawmakers from trading stocks and instituting term limits. Sarah also broke with her party to support a middle class tax credit.

Sarah will face Zach Nunn, who just this year tried twice to run for Governor, but both times was told by Trump allies to stay in the House. Nunn’s lack of enthusiasm for the district is reciprocated by voters: he under-performed by 2 points in 2022 and by 4.6 points in 2024.

Support The Win The Middle Slate Here

Flipping A New Swing District In Colorado

Colorado’s 8th congressional district is the near definition of a swing seat and will almost certainly determine which party wins control of the House.

The district has existed for two cycles after Colorado was awarded an additional seat following 2020 reapportionment. It elected a Democrat in 2022 and a Republican in 2024, but both won with less than 50% of the vote. The district also has a Cook PVI of “Even.”

Shannon Bird is running to make sure that this seat flips and stays blue for cycles to come.

A state representative with an independent streak, Shannon has never been afraid to challenge the status quo to deliver results for her constituents. From protecting jobs to keeping communities safe to fully funding public schools for the first time in 15 years, Shannon has proven she’ll always fight for the people she serves.

The Democratic primary field in CO-08 at one point boasted six candidates but has now winnowed down to four. Colorado’s 8th is a winnable seat, but only if the right type of Democrat emerges from the primary.

Shannon is the only candidate in the primary who’s won contested campaigns, and she’s working to build the broadest coalition possible. With her bio, record, and commitment to service, Shannon is uniquely positioned to not only flip this must-win district “blue” in 2026, but to remain in elected office for cycles to come.

Colorado’s 8th is currently represented by freshman Republican Gabe Evans, who has voted to support Medicaid cuts that will disproportionately affect this district, where more than a quarter of residents are on Medicaid. Medicaid cuts are overwhelmingly opposed by Colorado voters.

And despite Evans campaigning on improving public safety, Shannon has actually passed bills to reduce crime, like barring car thieves from owning guns and passing a law that led to a 52% decrease in auto thefts in the largest county in the district.

Welcome’s Record

Welcome recently released Deciding to Win, a report that analyzes what Democrats have gotten wrong in recent years and offers a blueprint for how the party can win again. All of the candidates on Welcome’s Win the Middle slate are leaders who are actively deciding to win in the types of districts Democrats need to be able to compete in to win back the House.

In the 2022 and 2024 election cycles, Welcome invested a combined $14 million supporting a dozen of the Democratic Party’s most over-performing U.S. House challengers and incumbents. All of Welcome’s 2024 slate over-performed Kamala Harris in Trump-won districts by an average of nearly six points, demonstrating that candidates who “decide to win” the middle can beat expectations, even on red turf.

Independent analysis by Split Ticket confirms that WelcomePAC’s slate had the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of any Democratic group in 2024.

• Welcome Endorsees: +5.1 WAR (Average over-performance)

• Blue Dog PAC: +4.5 WAR

• New Dem Coalition: +2.3 WAR

• Progressive Caucus: -1.3 WAR

• Justice Democrats: -4.6 WAR

The Win the Middle slate exhibits Welcome’s commitment to supporting Democrats who represent the center of the country, not the center of the Party.

We can win – especially in Trump districts – by backing leaders with histories of over-performance, good governance, differentiation from the Democratic Party brand, and bucking the status quo. We hope you’ll join us.

Support The Win The Middle Slate Here

WelcomePAC is making two new endorsements that will increase the chance Democrats derail the GOP’s gerrymander: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34) and Bobby Pulido (TX-15), two culturally competent, centrist Texas Democrats who fit their districts and speak to their voters’ concerns.

Support The Win The Middle Slate Here

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is a proven over-performer who has consistently held the line in South Texas by prioritizing veterans and energy independence over national party orthodoxy. He has repeatedly demonstrated crossover appeal and an ability to outpace top-of-the-ticket Democrats in South Texas.

As we wrote earlier this year:

This morning, our team talked to Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who represents a district Trump won by 5 points. That’s where our focus is - learning how we can support leaders like Vicente to win back a majority.

Here is what we learned:

Last year, MAGA donors spent $8 million against Vicente, outspending Democrats by $3 million.

But voters sent him back because they know Vicente - they know his working class background, and his focus on affordability and sensible policies on energy & immigration.

So now, Texas Republicans are trying to change his voters. You’ve probably heard about what they’re doing, but you may not know that there are ONLY TWO TRUMP DISTRICTS THAT DEMOCRATS WON in all of Texas.

Vicente over-performs with Hispanic voters not in spite of his moderation, but because of it: Hispanic voters hold moderate views.

Gonzalez was one of 46 Democrats to vote yes on the Laken Riley Act, which mandates the detention of undocumented immigrants who commit crimes like burglary and theft. This vote was a strategic necessity for Democrats to prove the party is prioritizing voters’ concerns with immigrant-related crime, a top issue in his border district.

He also frequently breaks with his party to support deregulation bills like the “Small Business Regulatory Reduction Act” and the “DUMP Red Tape Act,” aligning himself with local business interests over federal agencies. Notably, Gonzalez voted against the Assault Weapons Ban in 2022, breaking with the majority of his caucus to align with the hunting and sportsman culture of South Texas, and he and fellow Texan Rep. Henry Cuellar were the only Democrats in the country to vote for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act. Gonzalez supports an all-of-the-above energy strategy that leverages all of America’s energy resources and options to keep costs low.

We’re proudly supporting Rep. Gonzalez because the way to fight MAGA extremism is to win the middle. This year, he is running in a redrawn TX-34 (Trump +10) where he could face a rematch with Mayra Flores, who denied the 2020 election results, regularly tweeted using the QAnon hashtag, and supports Texas’ law banning abortion even in cases of rape and incest, as well as a federal abortion ban.

Support Rep. Vicente Gonzalez Here

Bobby Pulido

Bobby Pulido is a legendary Tejano musician (check him out!) and small business owner, making him the ultimate political outsider. He represents a new-generation challenger whose appeal aligns with Welcome’s belief that Democrats can regain ground in South Texas by focusing on costs, community safety, and resisting the status quo that has frustrated voters. In a district Republicans redrew to be safe (+18 Trump), Pulido’s deep cultural ties and name ID offer a unique opportunity to reclaim the working-class vote.

Pulido has criticized Biden’s open borders policies, called out the use of the term “Latinx,” and highlighted his faith and support for American energy, calling himself a “Tejano Democrat.”

As Pulido says:

”I’m proud to be from the [Rio Grande Valley],” he said. “And I’m proud to say that in the RGV, people vote for the person, not the party.”

Pulido believes Democrats can improve their standing across the region by focusing on economic issues and leaning into religion.

As industries across South Texas contend with tariffs, labor shortages and immigration raids, Pulido said he plans to discuss economic solutions — including changes to immigration policy — with voters as he considers whether to run. Latinos in the region are culturally conservative, he added, but the right Democrat could win them over.

“The further left we run on certain things, certain Latino voters are not in agreement with it — that’s just a fact,” Pulido said. “But I still believe that as a Democratic Party, we’re a big tent, and we’ll accept all kinds of people. I also think that you can have the right messengers.”

Last cycle, incumbent Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz faced left-wing progressive Michelle Vallejo, who backed Medicare for All and free public college while having no policies to address the border crisis or rising crime. She had to walk back a 2022 interview when she decried “border militarization” and tried running to the center, but she couldn’t outrun her past left-wing affiliation and lost 43% to 57% last year.

Monica De La Cruz could be vulnerable to the right challenger. She’s been quietly trying to cover up her past stances, such as supporting an extreme abortion ban and privatizing Social Security. Sixty percent of the new district wasn’t in her old district.

In 2024, Welcome-endorsed candidates over-performed the top of the ticket by an average of nearly 6%. In a district like TX-15, Pulido has a real shot at victory, providing Democrats with a huge win in the House.

Support Bobby Pulido Here

The Opportunity

President Trump’s economic agenda is already causing support among Hispanic Independents to plummet. The recent elections in Virginia and New Jersey show this trend, with Hispanic areas shifting dramatically toward Democrats.

As we showed in Deciding To Win, Democrats are struggling with non-college Hispanics, in large part due to their extreme positions on cultural issues.

Rep. Gonzalez and Bobby Pulido can win back Hispanic voters in South Texas and turn the Republican gerrymander on its head. We hope you’ll join us in supporting their races.

If you’ve been a WelcomeStack reader for a while, you know we’ve written extensively about Jared – particularly his ability to win cycle after cycle in what has been a Trump district since Trump’s name was first on the ballot in 2016.

From Jared’s progressive conservatism to his differentiated voting record and his role as a leader in the Blue Dog Coalition, he has been successful in each of his bids to convince Mainers to split their ticket, most notably last cycle in 2024’s presidential election year.

As a former Blue Dog Co-Chair and the current PAC chair, Jared proves that winning in a Trump +10 district as a Democrat is not only possible, but replicable. His record provides a roadmap other Democrats running in rural and red districts can follow.

Without the Jared Goldens of the world, we wouldn’t have a chance at a Democratic House majority. We need Jared Golden, and more members like him, in Congress.

Support Rep. Jared Golden

Why Jared Can Win

Jared can win in 2026 because he’s been winning in a Trump district longer than anyone else in Congress.

As the only Democrat in the entire country to win four consecutive congressional races in a district that Trump also won, the cornerstone of Jared’s continued success is based on his cross-partisan appeal as a self-described “progressive conservative.”

Jared’s ability to connect with working-class and independent voters, his bipartisan approach to governing, and his authentic personal style make him one of the most effective and resilient Democrats in the House.

He wins by focusing on issues that matter to Maine and impact voters in his district – things like lobstering, logging, and agriculture – and not on the issues Democrats obsess about in DC. His populist-style focus on issues like healthcare and keeping USPS locations open while pushing for Democrats to align more closely with the median voter on immigration and crime have been key to this Blue Dogs’ electoral over-performance.

The District

Maine’s second congressional district covers the northern two-thirds of Maine, ranging from just outside of Portland in southern Maine all the way up to the Canadian border. It includes the state’s second- and third-largest cities, Lewiston and Bangor, the capitol city, Augusta, and sprawling rural counties and communities along the coast, in the state’s interior, and along the extensive Canadian border.

Not only is this district the second-largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River, it’s also the second-most rural district in the entire country. It’s home to a large group of working-class, rural, and deeply independent-minded voters who appreciate the straight talk, no BS type of personality that Golden brings.

This independent-mindedness is apparent in the district's voting history. In 2020, on the same ballot, this district voted for Trump by almost 7 points, Susan Collins by 22 points, and Jared Golden by 6 points. In 2024, Trump carried the second by nearly 10 points. Independent Senator Angus King won the district with 49% of the vote in a three-way race, while Golden won re-election with over 50%, winning by less than a point. Voters in Maine’s second congressional district vote for the person they trust the most and are not bound by party loyalty.

Support Rep. Jared Golden

Just as in the past three cycles, this race will be one of the most competitive races of 2026. National Republicans have already made it clear they think they can flip this seat, with the NRCC naming it as a top pick-up opportunity and recruiting a well-known challenger in former Maine Governor Paul LePage.

LePage was a popular two-term governor among voters in Maine’s second congressional district, though he also has a wide range of vulnerabilities such as threatening to shoot a cartoonist and saying that “drug dealers named D-Money, Smoothie, Shifty” would “impregnate a young white girl” before leaving the state. Early in his first term, he tried to kick 65,000 Mainers off of Medicaid. Throughout his governorship, LePage vetoed Medicaid expansion seven times despite the state legislature’s continuous efforts to pass it. Not only that, but LePage also ignored the will of the voters and blocked the expansion in the state after Mainers voted to approve it. Despite all of this, LePage won Maine’s 2nd congressional district in all three of his gubernatorial races, making this battleground race all the more competitive.

Sending Jared Golden back to Congress must be a top priority for 2026 – not only to help Democrats win back the House, but to have Jared’s leadership and vision for winning over voters in red districts that Democrats need to contest.

Support Rep. Jared Golden

A dedicated public servant and advocate for working families, KMR (as she has become known) has consistently demonstrated the values, experience, and vision needed to represent Michiganders in Congress.

Support Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet

Why Kristen Can Win

Rep. McDonald Rivet wins because she focuses on the “real things” that matter most to voters. When she first ran for Congress in the 2024 cycle, she consistently focused on the kitchen table issues that were of greatest concern to the working families in her district. Things like cutting taxes, lowering costs, and keeping communities safe throughout the district were all consistent talking points from Rep. McDonald Rivet both on the campaign trail and in her ads.

KMR understands the challenges her community faces because she has shared many of them herself. Rep. McDonald Rivet and her husband raised six kids, so she talks about how much that costs (for instance, how much milk her teenage son drinks). She honestly calls out that “most politicians are full of s***.” And she talks often about her work as a public servant in Michigan to make childcare more affordable and to lower drug and housing costs. KMR not only knows the issues that matter most to voters but has consistently provided the leadership needed to address them. Before she was elected to Congress, KMR served as Executive Director of Michigan Head Start and in the Michigan State Senate, where she was a driving force in the passage of the Working Families Tax Credit, which created the largest tax cut for working families in Michigan history.

In Congress, she’s already proven she’s ready to work with anyone – regardless of Party affiliation – to deliver results for her constituents. In her first 100 days as a Member of Congress, Rep. McDonald Rivet introduced a whopping 51 bills, nearly 70% of them with bipartisan support, and most geared toward lowering costs, creating jobs, and keeping communities safe. She even passed one out of the House! She was also elected to a leadership position in the New Democrat Coalition, further reinforcing her center-left credentials.

KMR’s pragmatic approach to politics helped propel her to a big win in the 2024 election cycle. While Harris lost Michigan’s 8th congressional district by nearly 2 points, Rep. McDonald Rivet won by 6.7, becoming 1 of just 13 Democrats to represent a Trump-won district. Notably, her Split Ticket WAR score, which aims to measure candidate quality by comparing outcomes to baseline predictions, showed a D+8.6 WAR, making her the highest over-performing, winning Democrat in the country in 2024. Analysts estimate that without her candidacy, a generic Democrat likely would have lost the district.

The District

Michigan’s 8th congressional district is in what’s considered “mid-Michigan.” It is anchored by Flint in the southern part of the district, and the Tri-Cities area in the North (made up of Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City).

Voters in the 8th are independent-minded and not beholden to either party. In 2024, this district voted for Trump by a margin of 2 points, Elissa Slotkin by 1 point, and Kristen McDonald Rivet by nearly 7 points. In 2020, Biden won the district by 2 points, meaning the district swung right by 4 points between the two presidential elections.

This back and forth and split-ticket voting is reflected in Cook Political Report’s analysis of the district. Not only does it have a PVI of R+1, but Cook has also notably rated Michigan’s 8th as the median congressional district for the entire country: There are exactly 217 districts that are rated more Democratic and 217 districts that are rated as more Republican than this district, making M-08 the tipping point district for control of the House.

We know Rep. McDonald Rivet can Win the Middle because she has quite literally won the middle by winning in this district. And her seat could well be the race that decides control of the House in 2026.

Support Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet

Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet is someone Michiganders can count on to work hard for working families, strengthen communities, and deliver results. We are proud to support her in her bid for re-election.

This district is a top target by the NRCC. Already, GOP super PACs have spent nearly $1 million in ads attacking KMR, buying more television in this district than against any House Democrat in the country. Given the close nature of this district, we expect this to continue, with the Republican nominee and outside groups slated to spend tens of millions of dollars to flip this seat.

We need Rep. McDonald Rivet back in Congress in 2026 to flip the House and continue delivering results and finding solutions for the things that matter to voters in Michigan and across the country.

Support Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet

As someone who has served in elected office for most of his career, Rep. Suozzi knows that common-sense solutions and a district-first type of politics are needed not only to represent the people of Long Island, but as elected leadership in Congress.

Support Rep. Tom Suozzi

Why Tom Can Win

Tom can win because he’s done it his entire career. Suozzi was elected Mayor of his hometown at just 31 years old. After four terms as Mayor, he won a hard-fought primary against the party-backed favorite for Nassau County Executive and then went on to win the general election, which had been held by Republicans for decades. He’s credited to this day for the county’s complete financial turnaround, negotiating tough deals and making hard choices to bring it back from the brink of fiscal ruin.

Rep. Suozzi has also been elected to Congress five times, building a track record and earning a reputation for getting things done. He’s earned trust among voters for knowing exactly which fights to pick, and who to collaborate with to get things done for his constituents – even when that means working with Republicans. As co-chair of the Problem Solvers Caucus, Rep. Suozzi works regularly with his Republican colleagues to find common ground in Congress. He prioritizes listening over lecturing and building real relationships with leaders on both sides of the aisle, which allows him to focus on delivering real results that have a positive impact on the everyday lives of his constituents.

Rep. Suozzi is also not afraid to buck his own party when necessary. During the special election in February 2024 following the expulsion of George Santos, Rep. Suozzi went on offense and took the issue of immigration head-on instead of pivoting, ignoring it, or downplaying the matter.

Consultants told him immigration was a “Republican issue,” but Suozzi, buoyed by the conversations he had with everyday Americans, had the wisdom to ignore that advice. He knew that his constituents – his neighbors – were concerned about the border. As he once said, “It’s not a Republican issue or a Democratic issue. If the people are talking about it, it’s an American issue.” While Democrats tip-toed around the issue throughout the 2024 election cycle, Rep. Suozzi called for investments in border security and criticized Republicans for scuttling bipartisan border security legislation. That message resonated, and the voters of NY-03 delivered him a 9-point victory, emphatically sending him back to Congress after a year of Santos’ chaos.

Tom’s approach works, and he has proven it by his electoral over-performance. In November 2024, when other districts on Long Island and throughout New York swung hard right, Rep. Suozzi and his Split Ticket WAR of D+1.9 ran nearly 8 points ahead of Harris, while Trump carried the seat by 4.4 points.

The District

New York’s 3rd congressional district is on Long Island and covers portions of Nassau, Suffolk, and Queens counties. It runs along the North Shore from Great Neck to Huntington, and down into northeast Queens, including Whitestone and Bayside. It’s a mix of waterfront neighborhoods, affluent suburban areas, middle-class towns, and diverse immigrant communities. In an area of the country that has been drifting away from Democrats, Rep. Suozzi has been able to buck that trend.

The electorate in NY-03 is independent-minded, focusing on local issues and supporting candidates who work to offer tangible results for them. Before the lines changed in 2024, this district voted for Biden by 8 points in 2020, then voted for George Santos by 7 points in 2022, and then for Suozzi by 8 points in early 2024 – a 15 point swing in under 16 months. This independent streak continued in 2024 when the district voted for Trump by 4.4 points while electing Rep. Suozzi by 3.6 points on the same ballot.

Support Rep. Tom Suozzi in the 2026 election cycle

Rep. Suozzi is experienced in running in tough races, and 2026 will be no different. It is one of just 13 districts in the country that Trump won but is currently represented by a Democrat in Congress. Because of that, Republicans have made flipping this seat a top priority for this cycle, and the NRCC has already listed it as one of their top targets. We expect them and additional outside Republican groups to spend millions of dollars trying to unseat Rep. Suozzi, and we cannot let that happen.

We need Rep. Suozzi and members like him to win in 2026 to keep fighting for common-sense solutions and help take back the House.

Support Rep. Tom Suozzi

We’ve written extensively on Marie – her notable appearances on national television, some of the many profile pieces written on her, and our endorsement of her last cycle.

In addition to being co-chair of the Blue Dog Coalition, Marie is an aggressively local and authentic Democrat who has won over voters across the political spectrum. She’s proven time and again that she’ll fight for what’s best for her district, even if it means bucking party leadership.

Support Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Why Marie Can Win

Marie can win because she has done it before. Twice.

In 2022, Marie had the upset of the cycle. She flipped Washington’s third congressional district – rated Likely Republican or even Safe Republican by every major rating agency – after far-right Joe Kent defeated incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the Republican primary. Election forecaster Nate Silver gave her just a 2% chance of victory going into election night. Marie stunned the political world with her victory.

In 2024, she did it again, beating Kent in what was deemed a Toss Up district by a wider margin than she had in 2022, even as Donald Trump carried the district by 3 points.

Her success is not an accident. It is a direct result of her cross-partisan appeal that is fueled by her local credibility and consistent district-first politics. Voters like Marie because they know her. A working mom who owns and operates a car repair shop with her husband, Marie focuses on everyday issues that affect voters in her district. Last year, she notably introduced a bill that would make it easier for childcare providers to feed children in their care, and she’s long been a champion of the “Right to Repair,” to make it easier and more cost effective for people to repair their own equipment. She even helped Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-NC) fix her car radio to raise awareness for their bipartisan efforts to protect AM radio.

These are just a few of the reasons why Marie consistently over-performs. According to Split Ticket’s WAR Score, which measures candidate quality by comparing the final results to how the race “should have” gone, Marie had a score of D+5.8 in 2022 and D+6 in 2024 – remarkably, some of the highest scores in the country.

The District

Washington’s third congressional district is located in Southwest Washington, encompassing the southernmost corner of the state along its border with Oregon. It contains six full counties and a portion of Thurston County.

The district is a mix of suburban and rural communities. The majority of the population resides in Clark County located just north of Portland, Oregon and where the county seat Vancouver, Washington is located. The district then expands north, stretching across rural timber and agricultural towns that have historically leaned Republican. And while these communities are more conservative, they respect and value the authenticity and pragmatism that Marie brings to Congress and her constituents.

Just like in past cycles, this race will be one of the most competitive races in the country in 2026. Republicans have made it clear that they believe this seat is winnable for them as they seek to keep and expand their majority in the House. The NRCC has already listed it as a top pick-up opportunity, and outside Republican groups stand ready to pour millions of dollars into this race.

Washington State Senate Minority Leader John Braun is expected to enter the race soon. As she’s proven, Marie will be ready. She’s stood up to the far right and defeated them twice, and she’s prepared to do it again.

Support Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

As we look to the 2026 midterm elections, we’re all in to help Rebecca as she builds on the momentum of her last campaign and finishes the job of unseating Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s third congressional district.

Support Rebecca Cooke

Rebecca Cooke Can Win

In 2024, Rebecca came within striking distance of flipping one of last cycle’s most competitive U.S. House seats in the country. She ran nearly 5 points ahead of Harris in the district, and even ran ahead of popular incumbent U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin by more than a point (Baldwin went on to win re-election).

How did Rebecca manage to come within 2.7 points of victory in a race that started the cycle as Likely Republican? By focusing on what is best for Wisconsin and meeting voters where they are.

Rebecca is a sixth generation Wisconsinite who grew up working on her parents’ dairy farm. She’s from the district, started her own small business in the district, and works as a waitress in her hometown in between campaign events. Rebecca is able to build trust with voters because her lived experiences are very similar to theirs. As a result, she’s earned trust from a wide range of supporters – from Trump voters to Blue Dog Democrats to U.S. Sen Bernie Sanders. This is exactly the type of big-tent coalition she’ll need to win in this district, and we’re excited to see her continue to cultivate it.

The District

Wisconsin's third congressional district covers 19 counties in a vast area of western Wisconsin known as “the Driftless.” Outside of the population centers of Eau Claire and La Crosse, this is a largely rural and agricultural district with a reputation for being independent and swingy – despite its current extreme representative in Congress. Prior to Van Orden, this district was represented by the famously moderate Democrat Ron Kind for 26 years.

Wisconsin’s third has lived up to its purple reputation in recent elections. In 2022, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers won the district by about a point, while Derrick Van Orden won by 3.7 points, and incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won by 5.7. The next year in the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race, Janet Protasiewicz, the Justice who Democratic groups backed, won by 10 points.

The Incumbent

Derrick Van Orden is someone the Welcome team refers to as “a walking opposition book.” Some of his most prominent highlights include:

• Being present at the Capitol insurrection on January 6th

• Trying to bring a loaded gun through airport security

• Exposing another man’s genitals to female officers while in the Navy SEALS

• Yelling at…well pretty much everyone (from teenage Senate pages to children in libraries to White House officials to House committee witnesses and *checks notes*... the President of the United States.

And those are just the people he yells at in person! It does not account for the thousands of tweets he has sent out while in Congress from his personal account, many of which take aim at those who disagree with him. One tweet in particular stood out following his vote to pass the “Big Beautiful Bill”:

As Democrats prepare to run against Republicans for gutting Medicaid and kicking millions of people off of their health insurance, most Republicans are trying to disguise the extent of the cuts. Meanwhile, Derrick Van Orden is bragging about them.

Van Orden has proven time and time again that he does not care about the people of southwestern Wisconsin – or really anyone, for that matter. He is a poster child for performative politics and talking a big game while actively passing legislation that hurts his constituents, including the ones who voted for him.

Welcome Picks Over-Performers

Welcome has a proven record of identifying the races that pundits and race-raters miss. In 2022, we focused on Colorado's 3rd and California’s 41st — districts that were widely considered Safe Republican seats that ended up being very competitive. We also identify over-performers: in 2024, all of our candidates had a positive “wins above replacement” score, according to Split Ticket.

Our strategy is simple, but rarely practiced: we find under-the-radar districts that are trending toward Democrats that are represented by extremist Republicans, and we recruit centrist Democrats who can appeal to moderate Republicans and swing voters.

Rebecca Cooke checked all those boxes and then some in 2024, and we are excited to support her campaign again as she aims to be the elected leader voters in Wisconsin’s third congressional district deserve. We hope you’ll join us as we help her unseat Derrick Van Orden in 2026.

Support Rebecca Cooke

WelcomePAC endorsed Stelson in 2024 when she came within 1.2 points of defeating the former House Freedom Caucus Chair and FBI investigatee Scott Perry.

Now she’s back for a rematch and the path to victory is clear. We are thrilled she’s in the race.

Last month, WelcomeFest attendees heard how Stelson over performed (watch that video here).

Janelle has what it takes to win over Republican and swing voters in PA-10 because she’s already done it. In 2024, Stelson nearly shocked the political world when she came within 5,133 votes of defeating Scott Perry. A race that started the cycle as Likely Republican ended up as a Toss Up and one of the closest races in the country.

This race will be one of the closest watched races this cycle and will help determine control of the US House of Representatives (she was 1.2 points away from being the 219th Democrat in 2024). The early polling is strong for Stelson, with a House Majority PAC poll showing her ahead 46% to 43%.

Support Janelle Stelson here

Diligence

Entering the 2024 cycle, race-raters claimed the race was “likely Republican” after being “Safe Republican”.

But we saw an opportunity. We scoured the country to identify the most vulnerable Republican extremist. Our diligence process started with 36 potential districts, and after months of research, dozens of conversations with candidates and local leaders, a series of calls with partner organizations and district visits, we identified Scott Perry as the unlucky winner of that process.

We wrote in 2023 about why Scott Perry was vulnerable in what (at the time) was a race that was not in the national conversation, and encouraged Democrats to go on offense and challenge Scott Perry in 2024:

Perry, however, is vulnerable. His Harrisburg-based district gave Trump just 51% of the vote in 2020. He is the archetype of an opponent that Democrats and their Never Trump allies must target in the 2024 elections.

We knew that this combination of GOP extremism and Democratic moderation would create the potential for an upset. Perry provided plenty of GOP extremism, and Janelle Stelson provided the Democratic moderation by focusing on winning the middle and nearly put Scott Perry out of a job.

Most Extreme Swing Seat Republican

We have written plenty about why Scott Perry should not be in Congress. A few lowlights:

• Perry was “central to the planning of January 6.”

• Perry’s phone was seized by the FBI as part of an investigation into his role in the plot to overturn the 2020 election .

• Perry admitted to doctoring reports related to the illegal dumping of sludge on the back of a local creek.

• As a former head of the House Freedom Caucus, Perry brought the country to the brink of a shutdown multiple times. He even questioned if people would be affected by them, saying, “Who’s living that they’re not going to make it to the next paycheck?”

• When the mother of a disabled child reached out to Perry with concerns about losing Medicaid coverage, he sent her a letter telling her that her concerns were based on the media’s “desperate, fearmongering propaganda.”

• Scott Perry’s extreme views mean he is often the lone lawmaker from the Pennsylvania delegation voting against vital legislation, like protecting firefighters from cancer, something Stelson’s ads have taken advantage of.

Since his re-election in November, Scott Perry has continued to be absent in the district and ignore his constituents. His district office doors were locked, no one in his office across the district answered phone calls, and voters couldn’t remember the last time he held a town hall.

Perry’s latest vote to pass the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will have a huge impact on the nearly 173,000 people in PA-10 who are on Medicaid.

Janelle Protects Democracy By Practicing It

Janelle outperformed the top of the ticket by 4.2 points by building a cross-partisan coalition that included thousands of Trump/Stelson voters. How was she able to do this? Trust. For over 30 years, Stelson worked as a local journalist and anchor who delivered the news in a factual and nonpartisan way. Voters knew and trusted her before she even entered the race because she had been in their living rooms speaking the truth for decades.

A Philadelphia Inquirer piece from last year shows how Stelson approached her race:

“I’ve been the trusted, nonpartisan voice,” she said. “If I haven’t been sitting in your living room doing a story on you in all that time, I’ve been in your living room on your TV, chances are.”Even her ex-husband, whom she called a “hardcore Republican” donated to her campaign, she said.

“It’s hard to go up against an entrenched incumbent,” she said. “But again, having so many Republicans and independents reach out to me the way they have been over the past several months lets me know this is possible.”

Scott Perry is an election denier, but Stelson understands that the way you beat election deniers is by building broad coalitions, and focusing on economic issues.

Last cycle, Perry’s extremism and absenteeism nearly cost him his seat, sneaking in by just over a point. This cycle, with Janelle leading the way, let’s finish the job.

Support Janelle Stelson

The new addition to this group is freshman congressman Rep. Adam Gray (CA-13), who serves as Whip of the Blue Dog Coalition. You may recognize Adam Gray from an episode of The Depolarizers earlier this year.

Rep. Gray is an electoral over-performer who knows what it takes to win over Republican and swing voters in the conservative-leaning districts Welcome prioritizes.

Throughout Gray’s political career – spanning from his time in the California State Assembly to this past election cycle when he flipped a district Trump won by 5 points – Gray has blended place-based politics, pragmatism, and patriotism to earn trust among voters of all backgrounds in a district known for its ties to Blue Dog Democrats.

In fact, Gray was the only Democrat in the 2024 election cycle to flip a district Trump also won, defeating Republican incumbent John Duarte by a margin of just 182 votes, and making it the 2024 cycle’s closest race in the country.

Support Adam Gray

Why Gray Can Win

Gray has always focused on getting things done for his constituents no matter which party they identify with. He’s also always prioritized a bipartisan approach to governing. He proved this during his time in the California State Assembly when he co-founded the Legislative Problem Solvers Caucus after finding the legislature to be too partisan and gridlocked.

The caucus, which aims to “encourage political leadership that puts the public good above partisan political ideology” is still thriving to this day, and it went on to include Democrats and Republicans from both the State Assembly and the State Senate.

That’s the kind of leader Gray is - committed to governing and delivering results for his community without the political drama that some politicians thrive on.

Gray is also the type of candidate who can differentiate himself by running as the authentic locally- focused centrist that he is.

Not only did Gray run 5.4 points ahead of Harris in the district, he also posted an impressive D+5.2 score according to Split Ticket’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) measure. These scores, which help measure candidate quality by comparing how a race “should” have gone compared to how the race actually went, suggest that Gray was an especially strong candidate in this district given the expected results and national headwinds.

The District

California’s 13th congressional district is centered in the San Joaquin Valley in the southern part of California’s Central Valley. It covers most of Merced County and portions of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno, and San Joaquin counties. The largest and most productive agricultural region in the United States, the San Joaquin Valley gives this district a distinct cultural identity that is a stark contrast to the progressive politics California is known for.

With many of its residents employed in the agricultural industry, it’s not surprising that the district has a history of being represented by the rural-focused Blue Dogs and other moderate Democrats such as Jim Costa and Cal Dooley. In fact, one of the original co-founders of the Blue Dog Coalition represented this region in Congress.

Welcome Picks Over-Performers

Welcome has an excellent track record of finding the races that pundits and race-raters miss. In 2022, we targeted Colorado’s 3rd and California’s 41st — districts that election experts said were “safe” Republican seats. Welcome also identifies over-performers: in 2024, all of our endorsed candidates had a positive Wins Above Replacement score according to Split Ticket.

Our strategy is simple, but rarely practiced: find under-the-radar districts trending toward Democrats that are represented by extremist Republicans, and recruit centrist Democrats who can appeal to Republicans and independent voters.

Support Adam Gray

Welcome believes Adam Gray has what it takes to not only win re-election in CA-13 in 2026 but govern in a way that proves to voters that Democrats have the nuance, compelling vision, and leadership to move our Party and our country forward.

Let’s send him back to Congress in 2026.

The results suggest that the battle for House control will be intense and this cycle will shatter fundraising records. Let’s dig in.

More Competition, Fewer Deserts

The CCI report finds that competition has increased heading into the 2026 midterms. Following the release of the 2025 PVI scores, there has been a slight uptick in the number of competitive seats (a PVI between EVEN and +6 for either party), going from 100 to 112. That’s an encouraging sign, and it reinforces a key Welcome Party tenet: Democrats need to contest a big map. Particularly in a year like 2026, where Trump’s unpopularity could weigh on Republicans.

Republicans on Defense, Raising Strong

Incumbent Republicans in competitive seats are raising big in the first quarter, almost doubling their frontline Democratic counterparts. In districts rated as tilt or lean Republican, incumbents raised an average of $977,000 in the first quarter, while Democrats in similarly rated districts raised only $503,000.

Generic ballot polling is favoring Democrats, which means that Democratic incumbents in light blue districts could be safer this year, and the financial edge reflects that.

The strong Republican fundraising is likely driven in part by their incumbency advantage, particularly as business interests seek access to Republicans during their budget reconciliation push, which will contain tax provisions businesses are eager to capitalize on.

Among Challengers, Democrats Lead

As of March 31, there were 157 challengers who had filed and raised some amount of money in Q1. Of those, 34 raised at least $100,000 in the first three months of 2025, passing a key fundraising benchmark early on in their campaigns.

23 of those high fundraisers are Democrats and 11 are Republicans. With Republicans on the defensive, Democrats are contesting a relatively wide battlefield and raising enough to do it.

Setting Expectations

One key thing to remember this cycle is that Democrats have less “easy” wins then they did in 2018. There are 16 Democrats in Trump-won districts compared to just 3 Republicans in Harris-won seats. Back in 2018, Clinton won 23 districts that a Republican House candidate won, while Trump won 12 districts that a Democratic House candidate won.

Top Raising Challengers

When we look at the top fundraising challengers, Democrats have the momentum, with 9 of the top 10 fundraisers all hailing from the Democratic Party. The presence of so many $1 million plus quarters this far from the election suggests an engaged small donor base. However, Republicans with previous electoral backgrounds like Jim Desmond were still able to put up solid quarters.

Manny Rutinel had the strongest fundraising quarter for a Democrat in a non-special election, pulling in $1.19 million. He is running for the Hispanic-heavy, even PVI CO-08 seat created after the 2020 Census. This race will be among the most competitive in the country, with freshman Republican Gabe Evans defending after beating Yadira Caraveo by less than 2,500 votes. Evans raised $810,000 in Q1 - it’s rare to see an incumbent outraised this early.

Rutinel is a Hispanic state legislator with working-class roots and a background in environmental law. Million dollar quarters are common for powerful incumbent chairs, but Manny’s haul is unique for a challenger. Yadira Caraveo, who lost to Evans in 2024 is also running, but her fundraising was relatively weak and she has faced negative media scrutiny, leading to some skepticism that the DCCC will back her.

Welcome candidate Rebecca Cooke also put up more than a million dollars for her re-match against Derrick Van Orden in this R+3 Wisconsin district. Cooke was one of the strongest Democratic contenders according to the Split Ticket “Wins Above Replacement” (WAR) metric (D+7.3) and her fundraising shows why. Cooke was endorsed by Welcome in 2024 and again for this race and we’re excited to see her strong fundraising. She would bring a small business background to Congress and has focused on running moderate ads touting her bipartisan approach. Van Orden is clearly running scared, and is trying to deceive voters about his support for cuts to Medicaid and food stamps.

You can see Cooke at WelcomeFest June 4th.

Low Cash Incumbents

Several incumbents put up poor fundraising numbers despite representing districts that could be competitive, depending on the challenger and environment. Two of these incumbents stand out to us as a potential Lauren Boebert in the making. Recall that no forecasters expected Boebert’s race to even be close, but then, on election night she got a shock when Adam Frisch came within a few thousand votes of winning. The reason was simple: Boebert was far too extreme for the district and Frisch charted a moderate course. With Trump’s negatives quickly growing and Democratic strength in midterm elections, these districts with extreme incumbents could come into play.

Andy Ogles is a far-right Republican who represents Tennessee’s 5th congressional district. He denies the results of the 2020 election and is currently proposing a constitutional amendment to allow Trump to serve a third term. Ogles’ office was raided by the FBI related to campaign finance allegations, but the DOJ under Trump dropped the case. This scandal might explain why Ogles raised just $50,000 and has just $60,000 on hand for re-election in this R+8 district.

Cory Mills sparked negative media coverage recently with police investigating domestic violence allegations against him and a recent Congressional Ethics Committee allegation regarding illegal government contracts to companies owned by Mills. He may have even lied about his military record to get his Bronze Star. This has put a damper on his cash on hand, which sits at only $92,000 after raising $284,000 in the quarter.

Summing It Up

After the first quarter of 2025, it is clear that competition is growing and that the House battlefield will be broad. While Republicans may have a slight fundraising edge in some races, Democrats have the wind in their backs and are mounting a strong challenge. In order to make the most of their opportunity, Democrats must extend their map to contest a wide range of districts including those where extreme incumbents may make their district vulnerable. The wind is at their backs, but only if they choose to run with it. With additional candidates having launched in the last six weeks, the landscape will come into even greater focus by the time the next CCI is released.

Split Ticket launched in late 2021 as a hub of the most interesting mapping, modeling, and political forecasting in the online community known as #ElectionTwitter. It quickly became an invaluable resource, and its recent partnership with The Washington Post has yielded two pieces from co-founder Lakshya Jain that are key to understanding recent elections - and debunking harmful narratives.

Moderates win. And so do women.

More on the research in a minute, but quick related note: today is the final day of the quarter, which means you’ll be bombarded with text messages and emails from candidates needing to “meet this urgent deadline.”

When Democratic small donors are bombarded by text messages, there are few resources for them to understand which candidates are worth their money. Which leads to a misallocation of precious dollars to unwinnable races.

Welcome co-founder has made the case for fixing the broken political marketplace on CNN, WaPo, etc - and written about how there is a better way. Our growing community has contributed more than $500,000 to the most important, most overperforming candidates. And when Q1 fundraising is announced on April 15, the top data point for knowing who will win the House in 2026 is Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s Third. Here’s from this morning on what to watch for:

How are House candidates doing early in top-tier races?

Several Democrats launched campaigns against vulnerable House Republicans early this year, so we'll be watching to see whether they open strong and scare off other intraparty opponents. One candidate we'll be paying close attention to is Wisconsin Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who is seeking to avenge her close loss last year to Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in the 3rd District.

You can learn more about Rebecca here, and can support Rebecca here on our Win The Middle Slate (click “customize” on the right to allocate across the slate).

Moderate Women Win

Remember the movie Moneyball about how small-market baseball teams outsmarted the big spenders?

The sober, creative analysis done at Split Ticket is a modern, political version of The Bill James Baseball Abstract that inspired the movement that revolutionized sports.

James popularized the concept of WAR - Wins Above Replacement, a measure of a player's overall value showing how many wins they contribute above the performance of the generic next-available player. Split Ticket does something similar for candidates, and it puts Rebecca Cooke - who ran a TV ad standing in the literal “middle of the road” - at 7.3 points above replacement, one of the highest of any challenger in the country.

This is one data point that helps answer one of the most pressing questions for Democrats: do candidates need to move to the left to mobilize the base?

The answer is no, something political science has long demonstrated.

A second piece from Split Ticket answers another question Democrats have asked in the wake of another presidential loss: do male candidates do better than female candidates in winning tough districts?

No. If anything, women do better.

Why Mods

In his recent piece on moderation, Jain analyzes 8 years’ worth of data and finds that every cycle, moderates outperformed. And the more moderate a candidate was, the better they did:

At Split Ticket, we have modeled the last 8 years of candidate quality in congressional elections via our wins-above-replacement metric, and thus have perhaps the most comprehensive database of candidate quality in the Trump era.

Although our database covers every race contested by both parties, we’ll limit our analysis to incumbents here for ease of classification¹ — while quantifying challenger ideology is quite difficult, it’s much easier to classify Congressional incumbents, as clearer ideological groupings begin to emerge in caucuses.

In each of the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 cycles, we found that the more moderate a congressional caucus was, the better its members did, on average.

On the other hand, as the chart below shows, extremists in the Freedom Caucus, like Scott Perry, underperform.

This is true of both parties. The Progressive Caucus underperforms the fundamentals. It’s no surprise that the candidates in districts Trump won by 2 points or more in 2024 don’t associate with the Progressive Caucus.

Instead, the top individual overperformers are from the New Dems and Blue Dogs:

• Adam Gray - New Dem, Blue Dog

• Jared Golden - Blue Dog

• Kristen McDonald Rivet - New Dem

• Don Davis - New Dem

• Tom Suozzi - New Dem

• Marcy Kaptur - No caucus

• Henry Cuellar - New Dem, Blue Dog

• Marie Gluesenkamp Perez - Blue Dog

In both parties, incumbents from the most moderate caucus overperform the most (Main Street Republicans by 2.3 and Blue Dogs by 3.9) while those focused on moving the party away from the center (Freedom Caucus and Progressives) perform below baseline:

Women Win

It’s hard to learn the right lessons from Presidential elections. They only happen every four years, which means each election takes place in an almost entirely different media and economic context. That’s why the research Jain conducts focuses on Congressional races, which happen more frequently and include far more candidates. Just because Harris and Clinton lost does not mean Democrats shouldn’t nominate female candidates in tough races. 

In The Washington Post, Jain runs through the data showing that there is no evidence that women perform worse as candidates:

Across the nearly 200 House races in which women faced off against men, the margins were almost exactly where they should have been, given each district’s demography, political lean, distribution of campaign cash and other “fundamentals.” And of this set, in the 69 battleground races the Cook Political Report rated as “in play,” the female candidates actually did 1.2 points better on average than the fundamentals suggested they should have.

Welcome candidates like Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defy the partisan expectations of their districts. The most impressive Republican overperformers, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are both women. The key to electoral success isn’t a candidate’s gender, it’s how they position themselves relative to voters. 

We’re excited to announce that Jain will be at the WelcomeFest, and speaking of moderate women candidates, Rebecca Cooke will be as well! 

Support Moderate Women to Win

Cooke is one of those moderate women overperformers - and was featured on our Women Win The Middle slate last Fall.

According to the Split-Ticket “Wins Above Replacement” model, Cooke overperformed the fundamentals of her district by a whopping 7.3 points. How did Cooke do it?  The New Yorker wrote a deep dive on Wisconsin featuring part of the answer:

Cooke believes that there is a problem with the national Party’s image, which was reinforced by Harris’s messaging choices.

“The Democratic Party brand is far left right now, when that’s not the majority of the country,” Cooke said. “We don’t have an agenda that really tells people what we’re going to do, how we’re going to make things better, and how we’re going to improve people’s lives.”

She went on, “There was a lot about joy, but there are a lot of people that aren’t feeling joy in their lives right now.”

It didn’t help to tell voters that the economic numbers were getting better when they weren’t feeling it. Nor, from the vantage point of her mostly working-class district, did Cooke think Harris’s courting of celebrities was wise. “Most people can’t afford to go to a Beyoncé concert,” she said.

Because of Cooke, Van Orden is now in a swing district. And this cycle, he’s on the ropes. 

Van Orden is the polar opposite of a moderate. He’s the type of extremist who puts what should be safe districts on the map:

He participated in the January 6th insurrection rally and said of his participation, "I went there to stand with them, to stand up for electoral integrity." He has been seen yelling and cursing at teenaged Senate pages after partying in his office where alcohol was spotted, drawing rebukes from members of his own party. Van Orden also wrote a book called the Book of Man: A Navy SEAL's Guide to the Lost Art of Manhood that included a story about exposing a man's genitals to female officers. He has missed a number of key votes, but did find time to vote against expelling serial liar and fraudster George Santos.

Support Rebecca Cooke Here

Our community has raised more than $500,000 for candidates like Rebecca, but far more is needed.

Understanding what works in campaigns is vital for democracy. Join Rebecca, Lakshya, and many others at WelcomeFest on June 4 in DC to learn how to put the best research into practice.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: Rollins’ Overperformance

In 2024, despite a nearly five-point shift toward Trump in CA-41, and a nine-point margin for Republican Steve Garvey in the Gubernatorial race, Rollins improved his performance in every municipality compared to his 2022 run. He flipped La Quinta, a key battleground, and recorded the highest vote total ever against long-time incumbent Ken Calvert with 171,000 votes.

Among California’s “Red to Blue” races, Rollins overperformed both Harris and Schiff by more raw votes than any other candidate. Just two overperformed both Harris and Schiff, and Rollins outperformed Schiff by a larger margin than any other California challenger. His biggest margin of overperformance came in Corona —notably, Ken Calvert’s hometown —where he over-performed Harris by 4.4%.

Nationwide, Rollins ranked #6 among top Democratic overperformers compared to Harris by percentage. According to Split Ticket’s “Wins Above Replacement” model, Rollins was the #1 highest overperforming Democratic challenger in California and #5 nationwide.

A Grassroots-Powered Campaign

The financial side of the race tells an even more compelling story. Rollins' race was the fifth most expensive Democratic challenger race in the country. Unlike other high-dollar contests, Rollins’ fundraising was the primary driver of competitiveness—his campaign alone accounted for more than 50% of total Democratic spending in CA-41, significantly outpacing independent expenditures. While progressive activists say Democrats need to take extreme far-left stances to over-perform, Rollins’ campaign ran ads explicitly targeting moderate and conservative voters highlighting Rollins’s Republican family members. Rollins’ fundraising success shows small donors aren’t excited by idle promises but by compelling candidates who can win.

Will Rollins was the first Democratic challenger identified by WelcomePAC, and we invested more than $700,000 in his first campaign in 2022. His strong performance in that cycle helped put CA-41 on the national radar, transforming it from a "solid Republican" district into one of Cook Political Report’s top toss-up districts in 2024. We believe that in 2026, this race is among the most likely to flip into Democratic hands.

Why Will Rollins Overperformed

Rollins’ appeal lies in his compelling profile. A former Arnold Schwarzenegger aide and federal prosecutor who brought insurrectionists and cartels to justice, Will represents the kind of centrist Democrat who can win crossover support. Raised in a Republican family, he speaks credibly about bipartisanship, and his message has resonated across party lines.

This credibility has helped him rack up surprising endorsements. The Palm Springs Police Officers Association, which backed Calvert in 2022, flipped to support Rollins in the 2024 cycle, and even Fox News had to take notice. Rather than reject support from law enforcement, Rollins embraced it and built it into his ads. He also wasn’t afraid to confront voters’ concerns about immigration, blasting Calvert for refusing to support the toughest bipartisan border security bill in a generation, garnering attention from national press.

Rollins ran an ad that featured Republicans touting their support for Rollins. They pointed to his counterterrorism work going after the Sinaloa Cartel and MS-13 to secure the border and stop the flow of fentanyl. Republicans also praised Rollins for saving taxpayers billions of dollars working with Republicans and taking on corruption in both parties as a prosecutor.

Will Rollins shows what it takes to over-perform. Define your enemy as an extremist, and yourself in the middle. Make promises that you can keep, not ones that will increase taxes on the middle class. Focus on the issues that matter to voters, not activists.

Welcome was grateful to be on Team Rollins the past two cycles, and we plan to empower more leaders like Rollins to run in 2026 and cycles to come.

SUPPORT REBECCA COOKE

Dark MAGA was exhibited in a recent interaction between Cooke’s opponent, Republican Congressman Derrick Van Orden, and an employee of the Department of Veterans Affairs.

But first, some background.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (WI-03) has always been an extremist. He participated in the January 6th insurrection rally and said of his participation, "I went there to stand with them, to stand up for electoral integrity." He has been seen yelling and cursing at teenaged Senate pages after partying in his office where alcohol was spotted, drawing rebukes from members of his own party. Van Orden also wrote a book called the Book of Man: A Navy SEAL's Guide to the Lost Art of Manhood that included a story about exposing a man's genitals to female officers. He has missed a number of key votes, but did find time to vote against expelling serial liar and fraudster George Santos.

In Trump’s second term, he’s sunk to new lows.

Tony Ruiz, a former Veterans Affairs employee reached out to him. Ruiz is the type of person that a Republican on the Veterans Affairs committee would typically want to respond to:

“Tony Ruiz, a 47-year-old disabled Army veteran who worked as a veterans service representative in Los Angeles, said he was specifically hired to help process the PACT Act claims amid a surge in claims.

[…]

In August, Ruiz was awarded the employee of the quarter and received a cash bonus, according to files from the Office of Personnel Management he provided to the Washington Examiner. During that time, Ruiz met Joshua Jacobs, the Under Secretary for Benefits at the VA, who congratulated him on his accomplishments.

“My boss told me at one point, he goes, ‘Man, god damn it, you’re doing more claims yourself than 20 people.’ He told me they were looking at my numbers and that’s why I got the award,” he said.”

Ruiz was hired to help the VA address the surge in claims caused by the PACT Act, bipartisan legislation to protect veterans who were exposed to burn pits and other toxic substances.

A week after he was laid off, Ruiz told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel he sent Van Orden a message on LinkedIn urging him to help veterans like him and stop the mass firings.

Seemingly unaware that Ruiz was no longer a federal employee, Van Orden’s response to Ruiz was:

I am a member of Congress on the VA Committee.

I have absolutely no say in the employment status of any individual in the executive branch however, I will be referring you to DOGE as it seems that at 13:46 on a Monday you should have been working for veterans, not posting trash about your boss, President Trump.

There needs to be accountability.

Now.

Have a great day.

Several days before this, he threatened to prosecute activists for interfering with DOGE. Veterans Affairs was once a bipartisan matter (PACT had overwhelming bipartisan support), and Republicans used to pride themselves on protecting veterans. But in the age of Dark MAGA, veterans and those who serve them are just another group whose livelihoods and well-being will be determined by Elon Musk and his efforts to take a hatchet to the federal budget. Rather than exerting Congress’s right to manage the purse, Van Orden is tossing the keys to the teens at DOGE.

But the story doesn’t end there.

In 2024, Welcome candidate Rebecca Cooke put up the strongest performance against Van Orden that he’s ever faced, coming within three points of winning and over-performing Harris at the top of the ticket by 5 points.

At the end of 2024, The New Yorker wrote a deep dive on Wisconsin featuring Cooke.

Rebecca Cooke saw the same forces at work in rural western Wisconsin, where she challenged Derrick Van Orden, an incumbent member of Congress and Trump admirer who attended the January 6th rally. Raised on a dairy farm, she worked as a political fund-raiser before opening a shop in Eau Claire and creating a nonprofit that offers grants to women-owned businesses. She now works as a waitress at an upscale restaurant in Eau Claire. During the campaign, Cooke said, she avoided making unrealistic promises that she feared could feed into voter mistrust and cast herself as “somewhere in the middle,” a Blue Dog Democrat who would avoid extremes. She lost by three points, but in a mostly rural region where Trump scored his biggest gains in the state, she fared considerably better than Harris. She is strongly considering another run, anticipating a midterm election cycle that is likely to be more favorable to Democrats.

Cooke doesn’t engage in the politics of evasion, instead calling out decisions made by others in her party.

Cooke believes that there is a problem with the national Party’s image, which was reinforced by Harris’s messaging choices. “The Democratic Party brand is far left right now, when that’s not the majority of the country,” Cooke said. “We don’t have an agenda that really tells people what we’re going to do, how we’re going to make things better, and how we’re going to improve people’s lives.” She went on, “There was a lot about joy, but there are a lot of people that aren’t feeling joy in their lives right now.” It didn’t help to tell voters that the economic numbers were getting better when they weren’t feeling it. Nor, from the vantage point of her mostly working-class district, did Cooke think Harris’s courting of celebrities was wise. “Most people can’t afford to go to a Beyoncé concert,” she said.

Because of Cooke, Van Orden is now in a swing district, and a few days after his message to Ruiz, he finally seemed to realize that. He told Fox News he raised concerns about farmers and veterans being affected by DOGE to Musk. He then told a reporter the firings were not a DOGE decision, but rather a department decision.

The Department of Veterans Affairs is laying off nearly 80,000 employees, touching a third rail in American politics: you’re not supposed to screw over American veterans.

SUPPORT REBECCA COOKE

Last cycle, Van Orden’s erratic behavior nearly cost him his job. This cycle, let’s finish the job.

In 2024, we endorsed Rebecca Cooke in her Democratic primary because we knew she has what it takes to take down a Republican extremist.

Support Rebecca Cooke via Welcome’s Win the Middle slate, and help her unseat Van Orden next November.

Image of Rebecca Cooke from Rebecca Cooke for Congress.

“If the Democratic Party was a little more like Chairwoman Jayapal and a little less like Joe Manchin, I think we would have won this election”

Joe Manchin won his last Senate race in West Virginia with 50% of the vote against Patrick Morrissey, who won 46% of the vote. This year, Harris lost West Virginia with 28% of the vote while Trump took in 70%.

That means Manchin over-performed Harris in the state by a whopping 46 points (!). For context, Tester over-performed by 13 points this cycle. 

Joe Manchin is an electoral behemoth, the likes of which we would be oh so lucky to see again.

Pramila Jayapal is… not. This year, Harris won Jayapal’s district by 74.5, while Jayapal won by only 68.4, a 6 point underperformance. 

So, who do we listen to? The person who overperformed Harris by 46 points, or underperformed by 6 points?

It’s not clear that Jayapal’s brand of politics is even that exciting to Democratic voters — her sister lost a primary this year 47% to 33% against mainstream Democrat Maxine Dexter. Two squad members, Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, lost primaries to mainstream Democrats. 

Progressive Senators underperformed this year: Warren ran 6 points behind Harris, and Sanders ran a point behind (the only two incumbents to underperform Harris). 

It seems that being represented by a Squad member can actually make a district more conservative. Ayanna Pressley’s district in Massachusetts has swung to the right during her tenure. Ilhan Omar has consistently been one of the worst performing Democrats in the House and this cycle ran 12 points behind Harris (Harris won by 62 points, Omar by 50).

Our view at Welcome is simple: listen to the winners and the over-performers. Ignore those who run behind the ticket. Jayapal and other progressives consistently run behind even weak national performers like Harris. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez outperform even winning national Democrats, like Biden in 2020. They welcome independents into the coalition by taking common sense positions on issues like domestic energy, budget deficits and student loans, while progressives drive them out with extreme views like defunding the police.

We don’t need more Jayapals; we need more Manchins. 

How does he do it? It’s probably not a coincidence that Golden broke from Biden more than other Democrats, voting with Biden only 88% of the time ahead of the 2022 midterm election. And while 88% seems like a high percentage of alignment, no Democrat broke more often with Biden. 

This year, he’ll face his toughest challenge yet. Forecasters have placed his odds for reelection at roughly 50%, which is an even lower likelihood than what they gave him in 2022. The challenge this cycle is Golden’s test of winning a Trump district in a presidential election year. But given his unique brand of independent Democratic politics, coined progressive conservatism, we believe Golden can pull it off.

Why Jared Golden Can Win

Jared Golden has broken a hyper-partisan mold: over the summer, he was polling at a +20 net favorability in his district, while Biden was losing Maine by 20 points. 

He picks his battles strategically, voting against a number of gun control policies and famously voting against Build Back Better because it added too much to the national debt. 

Golden was also a staunch opponent of the Biden student debt cancellation plans – plans that did little to nothing for his constituents. Instead of canceling student debt, Golden has focused on issues that help blue collar workers, such as securing millions for logging apprenticeships and shipbuilder training. He’s been focused on supporting Maine’s lobstermen, with policies on catch sizes, and rural communities, by opposing Post Office consolidation. 

He’s an advocate for border security and law enforcement and worked in a bipartisan manner on real border security legislation. His approach has worked, and he’s consistently won the support of law enforcement.  

Golden is also an advocate for what he calls “progressive conservatism,” a political framing that rejects the left-right political spectrum: “Left-Right politics tells us we must join a partisan team. Rejecting it frees us to join voters in attacking the root challenges that fuels their anger and frustration. Anyone in any party who does that will be able to overcome the challenges of partisanship and polarization. That’s the promise of progressive conservatism.”

We wrote about scripted remarks Rep. Golden shared at WelcomeFest in July, which you can check out here.

The District

In 2020, Trump won Maine’s 2nd congressional district by 51.6% to Biden’s 45.5% (Trump +6) after winning 50.6% to 41.6% in 2016 (Trump +9). To win the seat, Golden defeated Bruce Poloquin in 2018. Poloquin famously flip flopped on repealing the Affordable Care Act. For months as House Republicans worked to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Poliquin refused to take a position, and finally announced his support on a conference call with reporters less than an hour before the vote. Golden said that act of cowardice was what motivated him to run for Congress. Golden has also benefited from ranked choice voting, which allows for third party voters to select a second choice. 

The Republican Challenger

How far out there is Donald Trump foot soldier Austin Theriault, who won the Republican primary for Maine’s 2nd District? A Republican state representative, Theriault’s colleague in the House, resigned the next day, writing, “I don’t want to be within 1,000 yards of anything Austin Theriault.” Mainers don’t generally take well to being told what to do by outsiders, and Theriault, who spent nearly half his life outside the state, received heavy backing from Trump and national Republicans. 

Theriault identifies as pro-life, praised the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision and would restrict abortion access statewide. He is no friend of the rule of law, jumping to Trump’s defense after Trump was convicted. 

Join Us

Support Jared Golden and help him keep Maine’s 2nd district blue in November via our Win the Middle slate. 

In our second electoral cycle, Welcome has endorsed nine candidates as part of our Win The Middle slate. Each member of the slate is running in a congressional district that voted for Trump in 2020, yet each brings a compelling story and background that resonates with center-right voters. 

We’ve published extensive analysis and research on each candidate and district. One fact we have not yet surfaced: the majority of our Win the Middle candidates are women, whose ability to connect with a diverse set of demographics in competitive districts is critical when challenging MAGA extremists. 

This memo outlines why these candidates and others are Women Winning the Middle – women uniquely qualified, positioned and equipped to flip districts blue this November. 

Recent Electoral Successes

Recent election cycles have underscored the significance of the impact of women, particularly moderate Democratic women, in swing districts. Take 2018 for example:

• In 2018, 64 new Democratic members were elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. 35 – more than half – of them were women. 

• More than 60% of the candidates who flipped swing seats that year were women.

On the Republican side, 37 new Republican members were elected to the House. Just 2 of them were women (who won in Lean/Likely Republican seats). Republican women also fared better in 2020, when they made up 40% of newly elected House Members (18 out of 45)

That 2018 Democratic freshman class included stars such as Reps. Abigail Spanberger, Elissa Slotkin, and Mikie Sherrill – all of whom are now eyeing higher office. In addition, now-seasoned incumbents like Reps. Chrissy Houlahan, Madeleine Dean, and Sharice Davids were first elected that cycle, marking the first cycle of many where women demonstrated resilience and electoral success in frontline districts.

In the 2024 primaries, Democratic women continued to show strong performances. Recent analysis by ABC shows that in the 2024 primaries, Democratic women candidates over-performed by 9 points. This trend indicates that they make up a larger share of primary winners compared to their representation among candidates: women made up 37% of all candidates and now make up 46% of all Democratic nominees for House, Senate and Governor.

These women are not just running in safe seats; they are going on the offensive in competitive and Republican-leaning districts. In races that Cook Political Report rates as “Toss Up,” women make up 44% of Democratic nominees. In Lean/Likely Republican races, that number jumps up to 55% of Democratic nominees. 

Five of those women candidates in the Toss Up and Lean/Likely Republican categories are part of WelcomePAC’s Win the Middle Slate.

Support Women Winning The Middle

Slate Overview

Rep. Mary Peltola, Alaska’s at-large congressional district

Mary Peltola was first elected in a special election in 2022 and went on to win a full term later that year, becoming the first native Alaskan and first woman ever to represent Alaska in the House. She also became the first Democratic representative from Alaska in 50 years. She ran an “Alaska first” campaign and described herself as “pro-fish, pro-family, pro-freedom.” Peltola was able to localize her campaign and appeal to voters who typically were not part of the Democratic coalition, namely Republicans and independent voters. 

Pelola’s Republican opponent is Nick Begich, who she has beaten twice before. Begich is a businessman who comes from a well-known political family in Alaska. He’s been endorsed by President Trump and the Freedom Caucus and has a history of extreme positions, including supporting a nationwide abortion ban. This race is widely considered a toss up and is hard to poll due to there being four candidates in the race as a result of the top-four primary system, and the fact that they use rank choice voting. 

Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Rep. Peltola.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Washington’s third congressional district

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is a first-term member who had the surprise victory of the cycle in 2022. Despite forecasters giving her just a 2% chance of winning, MGP (as she’s known) stunned the political world by beating Republican Joe Kent by less than 3,000 votes. Prior to running for Congress, MGP was co-owner of an auto shop with her husband. As a member of Congress, she’s not afraid to vote independent of her party when it’s in the best interest of the people of her district. Alongside Peltola and ME-02 Rep. Jared Golden, Gluesenkamp Perez is a centrist leader as one of the co-chairs of the Blue Dog Coalition. 

In 2024, MGP is set for a rematch with 2022 Republican opponent Joe Kent. Kent is a far-right extremist and conspiracy theorist who defeated moderate Republican incumbent Jamie Herrera Buetler following her vote to impeach former President Trump. Since Kent’s loss last cycle, he has continued to promote right wing conspiracy theories and has been tied to white supremacist groups. This race is widely considered to be a toss up, with millions of dollars expected to pour in from both parties. 

Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez.

Whitney Fox, Florida’s 13th congressional district

Whitney Fox is a lifelong Tampa area resident and mom of two. She cites the future of her children as one of the primary reasons she’s running for Congress this cycle. A first time candidate, Fox but is new to the political scene, but she’s no stranger to working to provide solutions for her hometown. Prior to running for Congress, Fox worked for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, where she worked with Democrats and Republicans at every level of government to deliver results for the people of Pinellas County. With an abortion referendum on the ballot that’s expected to energize Democratic turnout in Florida this fall, Fox has made reproductive freedom a primary focus of her campaign. 

Fox is facing off against Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus who proudly called herself a “pro-life extremist”. She has been accused of lying or embellishing parts of her background, and her constituents have seen her prioritizing building a national profile over the needs of the district. Luna is seen as the favorite in this race, but recent polling has shown a closer than expected race.

Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Whitney Fox.

Janelle Stelson, Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district

Janelle Stelson spent nearly 40 years as a news anchor in Central Pennsylvania. A household name and trusted source of information throughout the district, Stelson’s nonpartisan journalism background has proven to be a huge boost to her name recognition and support in the district. Stelson is also a former Republican who became a Democrat last year after seeing her party drift too far to the right. She has been able to use her independent, trusted background to reach out to and appeal to center-right Republicans and independent voters in a district that voted for Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro by 12 points in 2022. 

Her opponent in this race is Rep. Scott Perry, former head of the far-right House Freedom Caucus who has routinely taken extreme positions on many issues, including being supportive of government shutdowns and national abortion bans. Perry was also an active participant in the Jan. 6 insurrection intended to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Perry was initially seen as the favorite for this seat, but the race began to shift soon after Stelson’s primary election victory in April. Now, the race is close, and Stelson holds a fundraising advantage – a rare feat for a challenger facing a longtime incumbent. 

Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Janelle Stelson.

Rebecca Cooke, Wisconsin’s third congressional district

Rebecca Cooke is a small business owner and sixth generation Wisconsinite who grew up working on her parent’s daily farm. A native of western Wisconsin, she understands the importance of reaching out to rural voters who typically don’t hear from Democrats. Her experiences growing up in the district have helped her connect with voters from across the political spectrum, making her a formidable candidate in this race. 

Her opponent is freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Van Orden may be best known for his outbursts, from screaming at young Senate pages who were taking pictures in the Capitol to his rant at administration officials during a briefing. Van Orden entered this year’s general election favored to win, but Cooke has proven to be a strong fundraiser, and national Democratic groups have signaled that they will invest in this race after failing to do so in 2022. 

Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Rebecca Cooke.

Join us to Win the Middle in November

Each of these candidates brings unique experiences and compelling narratives that resonate with voters in traditionally conservative districts. With a strong focus on unity, moderation, and creating real solutions, they embody a forward-thinking approach that challenges the extremism prevalent in today's political landscape. 

Join us in investing in these Women Winning the Middle to flip the House blue this November and restore common-sense governance in some of our country’s most competitive congressional districts. 

Support Women Winning The Middle

For three years, we have investigated this question along with the most fascinating thinkers and doers from political science to technology to campaigning. How much is a US House seat worth? What does “The Chart” on midterm spending tell us?

There are some truisms: the political marketplace is bonkers inefficient, volatility among voters is underrated, and candidates weighed down by a party brand can achieve “escape velocity” by differentiating.

Those themes are all manifest in the US Senate race in Nebraska between independent Dan Osborn and GOP incumbent Deb Fischer. This is a live case study to answer the question: how much is a US Senate seat worth?

We have some comparables: in 2022, the Georgia race between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker cost at least $500 million ($250 million by candidates, $233 million by outside groups not factoring in other spending on voter turnout, education, etc.). 

But that race was a toss-up. How much is it worth to have a marginal shot? Florida’s US Senate seat was only forecast to have a 15% chance of flipping at its max height and saw roughly $150 million in spending

So how much is it worth having a 10% chance of winning a Senate seat?

Financially, backing into prior spending would figure that if a seat is worth $500 million, then a 10% chance is worth $50 million. The zero sum nature of partisan politics amplifies the value of bringing a new seat onto the map.1

And for democracy, there are even bigger positive externalities: when a seat is “Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat,” that means voters have no meaningful choice - and incumbents must move to the center to meet voters where they are.2

Deb Fischer’s Senate seat is no longer safe.

There is much to learn. But the question here is not just theoretical, it is how much will be invested over the next three weeks in independent US Senate candidate Dan Osborn. We’ve been following the Osborn campaign since before it launched, but to truly understand the opportunity we asked former Alaska state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins to break down the opportunity. Widely known among democracy reformers as JKT, he’s been at this for a while. Check out this 2018 Politico story on how JKT and compatriots in Alaska worked across party lines, harnessed volatility in the electorate, and exploited every angle to give voters a meaningful choice.3

Below is JKT’s case for turning a red state purple, without a D next to the candidate’s name.

The Highest-ROI Political Investment

This year’s electoral cycle is absolutely saturated with money — many billions of dollars, all-in, across House, Senate, and Presidential races in aggregate. And as we approach November 5, it might seem like the cake is mostly baked: no additional ingredients are likely to change the end product.

And while we don’t mean to endorse fait accompli thinking, there is one radical, dazzling outlier to any such assessment: The candidate is Dan Osborn. He’s an independent running for U.S. Senate in Nebraska against Sen. Deb Fischer. 

As far as candidate contributions go, if you have dry powder for the 2024 cycle, you should be sending it into Nebraska literally right now. Dan Osborn is objectively the best ROI, by far, for any federal race in the country.

I visited Dan in Omaha fall 2023 and have followed the campaign closely. It’s been a slow burn that has had a lot of fundamental potential since day one on the basis of the overwhelming strength of Osborn as an authentic working-class candidate and the overall disruptive nature of his independent candidacy. More recently, this fundamental promise has converted into some political gravity-defying polling data.

The five most recent publicly-available polls on the Osborn-Fischer U.S Senate race:

In all of these polls, Trump is running about 20% ahead Harris, which means Osborn is overperforming Democratic baseline by about 20%. This is what we mean by gravity-defying overperformance.

Now consider the Osborn race’s competitiveness in the context of the other competitive Senate races this cycle:

Now consider the Osborn’s relative competitiveness relative to the relative resourcing of the cycle’s other Senate races through the last filing period:

Osborn clocks in at around 2% mostly because polls earlier this cycle — when he still was relatively unknown — had him running far behind Fischer. Recent polling illustrates his strength, and the closeness of the race.4

The relative value per marginal dollar contributed is blindingly evident. If some “bandwagon effect” is helpful to getting to yes throwing as many dollars as you possible can to support Osborn, we’ve got you covered there, too:

• Rolling Stone, July 28: “Can a Mechanic Running as an Independent Steal a Senate Seat From Republicans?”

• Slate, September 3: “Could Nebraska Cost Republicans the Senate?”

• Washington Post, October 4: “In Nebraska, independent Senate candidate gives GOP a competitive race”

• The Hill, October 6, “GOP looks to avoid disaster in Nebraska Senate race”

• CBS News, October 8: “Nebraska Senate race surprise: It's ‘more competitive than it should be’”

• The Nation, October 8: “Meet Dan Osborn, the Heartland Populist From Nebraska Who’s Running for the Senate”

• Time, October 10: “Nebraska Senate May Be the Race No One Saw Coming”

Even if Osborn had raised x10 what he’s raised at this point, his race would still be a stunning case-study in underinvestment. But at, $1.6M in funding raised per Q2, don’t run, but sprint, towards Osborn’s donation page, and punch in as big a number in the contribution field as you possibly can.

And after you’ve donated, forward this to everyone you know who cares about the future of the U.S. Senate.

The poll’s findings are proof the Welcome strategy is working: PA-10 is home of our Republicans Against Perry campaign, featured on PBS NewsHour over the summer. In 2022, Perry won with 54%, but he now trails Janelle Stelson by nine points, 48% to 39%.

It looks like moderate magic, but the seeds of this miracle date back more than a year.

Most Vulnerable Extremist

More than a year ago, we named Scott Perry as uniquely vulnerable. He was an active participant in the insurrection. In texts released as part of the January 6th investigation, Perry shared YouTube videos claiming voting machines had been manipulated by satellite, and he attempted to convince Trump to fire acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen and replace him with a conspiracy theorist. A former Trump White House aide testified that Perry was “central” to planning the insurrection. 

And it’s not just a Trump thing: Perry has been too extreme for the district on policy. As leader of the extremist House Freedom Caucus, Perry pushed the government to the brink of a shutdown, and he supported extreme anti-abortion laws.

Perry was one of only six House members to oppose requiring the documentation and preservation of evidence of Russian war crimes. Those who joined him represent districts that favor Republicans by 11, 14, 16, 19, and 22 points. But unlike these other MAGA extremists, Perry’s district is winnable.

As we wrote back in 2023, “Perry, however, is vulnerable. His Harrisburg-based district gave Trump just 51% of the vote in 2020. He is the archetype of an opponent that Democrats and their Never Trump allies must target in the 2024 elections.”

And that’s exactly what we did. The first poll of this district was released by Welcome a year ago:

Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry is unpopular among constituents and susceptible to a Democratic upset next year, according to a group opposing him that has released a new poll of district voters.

“We scoured the country for the most vulnerable extremist and the unlucky winner is Scott Perry,” said WelcomePAC co-founder Liam Kerr in a statement in which he added that voters are “lukewarm on Perry and will swing hard against him once fully informed ...”

Voters are now informed. And MAGA extremists - and the House Speaker - are scrambling:

House GOP leaders are clearly worried about losing the seat. Speaker Mike Johnson will campaign for Perry on Friday in Mechanicsburg, Pa., and the House Freedom Caucus is mobilizing staff to canvass for their former leader up until Nov. 5. HFC aides are planning to knock on doors this weekend in Mechanicsburg, New Cumberland and Harrisburg.

It seems likely that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the House GOP super PAC that conservatives sharply criticized for the last few years, will have to consider putting money into Perry’s district.

Fellow Freedom Caucus Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) are pushing their colleagues to contribute to the House Freedom Fund, which will then funnel money to Perry’s race, according to HFC insiders. Roy campaigned for Perry in Harrisburg last week.

And a new super PAC linked to a former executive director of the NRSC has also earmarked more than $2.3 million in TV ads to support Perry in the coming weeks, according to his campaign.

Reverse Coattails

This story is not just about the House. It can also help win the White House:

The poll also shows that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 46% to 41%. In 2020 Lee says Trump won the 10th District by 4% so either the district has changed or voter’s preferences have changed.

One thing that has changed is that voters are more tuned into Perry’s extremism. How does this help Kamala Harris? As we explained in Adam Frisch’s Reverse Coattails, a dynamic centrist running against an extremist can help candidates up the ballot:

A fall 2021 report by Run for Something, For Our Future, and BlueLabs confirmed the reverse coattails effect, when “down-ballot candidates can help push the top of the ticket across the finish line.” The report found that Democrats contesting state legislature seats down-ballot boosted Democrats in statewide races at the top of the ticket.

This reverse coattail effect may also be true for stronger competitors in US House districts, as evidenced by the 2022 Colorado Senate race.

In 7 of Colorado’s 8 U.S. Congressional districts, Bennet ran very close to Biden (overperforming by an average of 0.3 points). But in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional district, where Frisch was challenging Lauren Boebert, Bennet ran a full 3 points ahead of Biden — 10x his average in the rest of the state.

And Perry shows no signs of changing his ways to win the middle:

Yet the conservative firebrand tells us he has no plans to temper his views in an effort to appeal to moderate voters who could save him.

Protect Democracy - By Practicing It

The Washington Post is also out with a story on Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson today. And the headline captures both how we pick our races, and how dynamic centrists can win them:

We select vulnerable extremists because they undermine democracy AND they have other baggage. And candidates like Stelson can protect democracy by practicing it: meeting voters where they are and winning the middle to flip districts.

HARRISBURG, Pa. — As she stood with more than two dozen retired national security leaders behind her, Democratic hopeful Janelle Stelson might have been expected to focus on her opponent’s views on election denial and the 2021 attack on the Capitol.

The bipartisan group of former generals and ambassadors came to Pennsylvania on Monday because they view her opponent, Rep. Scott Perry, as a potential threat to democracy.

But instead of starting her remarks with an account of Perry’s role helping the Trump White House strategize before the Jan. 6, 2021, joint session, she began by highlighting his votes on bread-and-butter issues: a vote against legislation to help house homeless veterans, a vote against helping firefighters get better protective gear and vote against a bill to combat sex trafficking. Only then did she turn to the Capitol insurrection and national security.

Read the whole piece here on this trusted news anchor who was until recently a Republican. While race-raters claimed the race was “likely Republican” after being “Safe Republican”, Welcome saw an opportunity. We knew that this combination of GOP extremism and Democratic moderation would create the potential for an upset.

Stelson is focused on winning the middle to follow through on that promise:

But Stelson said she has gotten support from across the aisle, and plans to reach out to more Republicans and independents ....

“I’ve been the trusted, nonpartisan voice,” she said. “If I haven’t been sitting in your living room doing a story on you in all that time, I’ve been in your living room on your TV, chances are.”Even her ex-husband, whom she called a “hardcore Republican” donated to her campaign, she said.

“It’s hard to go up against an entrenched incumbent,” she said. “But again, having so many Republicans and independents reach out to me the way they have been over the past several months lets me know this is possible.”

Let’s keep the momentum going this year to sow more depolarization, giving us the opportunity to reap a harvest of victories next cycle.

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