2026 Elections Are Underway
The first primaries of the 2026 cycle are in the books.
Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas voted this Tuesday, officially kicking off the election year. The most attention was on the U.S. Senate primaries in Texas, where both parties held competitive contests.
Democrats will turn to November with state Rep. James Talarico as the nominee in this marquee Senate race, but Republicans will be in a brutal all-out war between incumbent Senator John Cornyn and ultra-MAGA (and deeply corrupt) Attorney General Ken Paxton, though Trump may intervene to protect Cornyn. If Paxton, whose impeachment trial centered around bribery and extramarital affairs, becomes the nominee, Democrats have a shot at their first Senate victory in Texas since 1988.
In the House, we saw early signs of volatility. As of this morning, one incumbent was defeated by a primary challenger and 3 advanced to the runoff election.
In Texas’s 2nd, Crenshaw’s defeat shows how far right the GOP has moved. Crenshaw is no moderate, and he voted against impeaching Trump but he has also been a staunch supporter of aid to Ukraine, and was negatively impacted by redistricting.
In Texas’s 18th, a member vs. member Democratic primary continues into a runoff, with longtime Rep. Al Green and recently elected Rep. Christian Menefee both coming up short of 50%.
In Texas’s 23rd, the story is less about ideology than scandal. Late in the primary allegations surfaced that Rep. Tony Gonzales had an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide. Gonzales has occasionally demonstrated moderate Republican inclinations, working on gun control legislation after the Uvalde shooting. Challenger Brandon Herrera has invoked Nazi themes in his YouTube content.
In Texas’s 33rd, the Republican redistricting set up a brutal member on member primary between Colin Allred and Julie Johnson, which now goes to a runoff. In Texas’s 18th, another district where two Democratic incumbents were gerrymandered into a single district, Christian Menefee leads 78 year old Al Green, whose age may have been an issue in the primary.
In North Carolina’s 4th, incumbent Valerie Foushee barely held off a primary from leftist Nida Allam who criticized Foushee for her ties to pro-Israel groups. While it’s important not to over-interpret primaries, Allam’s strength and Mejia’s victory in NJ-11 suggest that Israel is becoming a powerful issue in Democratic primaries.
The general election battlefield is starting to take shape. Nominees are now set in several districts that will help determine control of the House, including Texas 15, Texas 35, and North Carolina 11. In seats like these, the primary outcome doesn’t just settle an internal debate, it determines whether November will be competitive at all.
The South Texas Story
Over the last decade, South Texas has become the clearest case study of Democrats losing ground with non-white and non-college voters. In the span of 8 years, the most Hispanic county in the country swung a staggering 76 points to the right, going from Clinton +60 in 2016 to Trump+16 in 2024. These ideologically moderate voters have drifted towards the Republican Party during this time, while a small number of Blue Dog-style Democrats have managed to hold ground by positioning themselves closer to the views of their constituents.
The first step in addressing this in 2026 was to ensure that the right candidates made it out of the primary. Last night, that happened.
In Texas 15, Bobby Pulido secured the Democratic nomination in TX-15, defeating progressive and self-funding challenger Dr. Ada Cuellar, who dropped over $1 million of her own money to fund negative attack ads against Bobby.
This is a district, like everywhere else in South Texas, has moved sharply to the right since 2016, averaging around a 17 point swing each election. It is heavily Hispanic, culturally distinct, and increasingly skeptical of national Democratic messaging. Pulido ran with that reality in mind: personally pro-life but supportive of a woman’s right to choose, economically focused, regionally rooted, and culturally fluent.
Democratic primary voters chose the candidate attempting to recalibrate the party’s image in the region rather than doubling down on a more ideological approach. That decision materially affects November competitiveness. Pulido will now face Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz in a race that is gaining more attention following Pulido’s victory. CBS News said, it will take a Democrat with a strong name ID, like Pulido, and a candidate who can appeal to conservative Latinos” and The Downballot said attacks that Pulido may be too conservative “might make him the right fit to unseat” de la Cruz.
To the west in the neighboring 34th district, incumbent and Blue Dog member Rep. Vicente Gonzalez won re-nomination by defeating a DSA endorsed challenger. His continued ability to outperform top-of-ticket Democrats in a region trending Republican remains instructive. He was one of two South Texas Blue Dogs who ran an average of 10 points ahead of Harris in 2024. Gonzalez’s model of pragmatic positioning, economic emphasis, and local credibility has allowed him to hold terrain that would otherwise be structurally difficult. He will face Eric Flores in the general election, who is a former federal prosecutor, Army Veteran and has the backing of President Trump.
North Carolina
In North Carolina’s 11th District, farmer, small business owner, and self-described “Mountain Democrat” Jamie Ager easily won the Democratic nomination with 65% of the vote and will face Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards in November.
Ager has run a campaign that is regionally rooted and culturally aligned with Western North Carolina, placing emphasis on cost of living, agriculture, and local economic concerns rather than national ideological fights.
He also enters the general election better positioned than most challengers in contested seats. Ager holds both a fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage over Edwards, a relative rarity for a first-time candidate running against a multi-term incumbent.
Looking Ahead: California 22
There are a number of primaries over the next few months, but one of the most consequential takes place on June 2 in California. Welcome-endorsed State Assemblymember Dr. Jasmeet Bains is running in CA-22 against educator and activist Randy Villegas.
CA-22 is not an easy pickup opportunity for Democrats. Donald Trump carried it by two points in 2024, and it is currently represented by Republican incumbent David Valadao, who is one of the most electorally durable Republicans in a district carried by both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton by double digits.
Dr. Bains is a two-term assemblymember with a reputation as a pragmatic, results-focused legislator who has consistently run ahead of the top of the ticket. Villegas, by contrast, is backed by Bernie Sanders and national progressive organizations such as the Working Families Party and Leaders We Deserve, groups that have focused more on defeating Democratic incumbents than flipping Republican-held seats.
The parallels to Texas 15 are hard to miss:
Both districts voted for Trump in 2024
Both districts are heavily Hispanic (roughly 70% in CA-22 and 80% in TX-15)
Both neighbor Blue Dog incumbents (Adam Gray in CA-13 and Vicente Gonzalez in TX-34) who have demonstrated the value of pragmatic positioning in difficult terrain
Both feature Democratic candidates who were recruited by the aforementioned Blue Dogs (Dr. Bains in CA-22 and Bobby Pulido in TX-15).
In Texas, primary voters chose Bobby Pulido, the candidate arguing that competitiveness requires meeting the district where it is, not where activists might prefer it to be. California 22 now presents the same test.
If Democrats nominate Dr. Bains, who is aligned with the district’s fundamentals, then the race against Valadao is real. If they nominate Villegas, then the path to victory narrows considerably before the general election even begins.