932: Six Months In and Underwater

Polling drops from inauguration to today

Today marks six months of Trump II. And he’s not popular.

Here’s a chart showing it, from CBS News:

We’ve previously covered how Trump’s favorability is the single biggest factor impacting the midterms and the future of our democracy.

An unpopular Trump expands the midterm map and provides a safe harbor against authoritarianism.

Here are our top polling takeaways:

1. Overall approval is dropping

2. Intensity is also changing, with more strong disapprovals and fewer strong approvals

3. Disapproval extends across issues, including immigration, driven mostly by prices and inflation

4. …. But Trump II is still more popular than Trump I

I. Overall Approval Dropping

It isn’t just the CBS News poll.

Trump’s net approval continues to decline, reaching its lowest point since the aftermath of Liberation Day. Via Nate Silver:

II. Changes Are Intense

Changes in Trump approval are not soft. The decline is not just from weak approval to weak disapproval.

Those “strongly” disapproving of Trump have jumped significantly, from 30% in January to 43% now.

And it isn’t just Trump’s haters, but his base: “strong” approval is down similarly, from 37% to 27%.

III. Changes Across Issues

Trump’s biggest issue approval drops are on inflation, the economy, and trade. On inflation, Trump’s approval has crashed from breakeven in February to -27 now. He has also seen ~23 point drops on trade (from +6 to -16) and the economy (+8 to -15).

But it extends even to his strongest issue, immigration (now -8).

Back to the CBS News poll: voters perceive Trump is focused too much on tariffs, and not enough on prices.

Whether it’s a poll or the NYC mayoral race, voters are crystal clear: they care about lowering prices - and think their leaders don’t care.

IV. But Still More Popular Than 2017

Trump is still more popular than last time though, despite … well, everything.

So there is nothing guaranteed on the direction of this line!

V. Democracy on Offense

With 932 days until the next presidential primary, the decline in Trump’s numbers is an indication Democrats haven’t done that badly over the first six months of this era.

Mild infighting and inaction is preferable to being so actively unpopular that Trump looks sane in comparison.

As Napoleon said, “Never interrupt your enemy when they’re making a mistake.”

For all the griping, Schumer and Jeffries have done a good job of that.

But another line attributed to Napoleon better suits the road ahead: "The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemy's."

We could not control the mania on our own side over the past six years, much less MAGA’s.

That’s why we need to put democracy on offense. Yesterday, we took another step by endorsing Rebecca Cooke in WI-03.

Check out the endorsement video, and keep boosting leaders who will keep those Trump lines pointed down.

Like what you're reading? Groups Chat is WelcomeStack's daily newsletter for Democrats building a coalition big enough to win. Become a paid subscriber or drop us a line to join the community.