941: Mamdani-Trump Voter Myth

New data on the NYC mayoral

One question related to the NYC mayoral races was answered today.

The thorniest questions remain … But it’s a Friday in July, so we’ll stick with today’s news based on fresh data from the NYC mayoral election.

Despite the post-primary chatter, Mamdani didn’t actually win many Trump voters.

New York Times polling czar Nate Cohn has the details:

While Mr. Mamdani may have appeal among some of the Democrats in New York who swung toward President Trump last November, those voters did not drive his victory: Kamala Harris had an 89-6 lead among Times/Siena poll respondents from October 2024 who subsequently voted in the mayoral race, based on their voter records

Of the Trump supporters who did participate in last month’s Democratic primary,

a majority of them were Orthodox Jews. Whether they’re actually a majority or not, the actual results make it obvious Mr. Cuomo did indeed win many Trump voters in Orthodox enclaves like Borough Park and South Williamsburg, where he sometimes won nearly 10 times as many votes as Ms. Harris did last November.

This runs counter to much of the narrative that emerged in the days following the election results.

And not just from Democratic Socialists. Mainstream media outlets hyped up the Mamdani-Trump voters connection based on demographic and geographic data: The Washington Post noted Mamdani energized “infrequent, young, Hispanic, and Asian voters—demographics that have recently leaned away from Democrats” while Bloomberg News touted a similar finding by precinct.

What actually happened?

Two things, according to Cohn: Democratic primary voters in NYC are more liberal than a decade ago, but voters overall are moving away from the party. The bottom line: moderate and conservative Democrats are just opting out.

It’s important to note that just because Democrats are moving to the left doesn’t mean the electorate is overall. This is certainly the case in New York City: That same Times/Siena poll that showed the Democratic primary electorate as far more liberal than a decade ago also showed Donald J. Trump faring better than any Republican in decades, as was ultimately borne out in the result. The poll also raised the possibility that the Democratic electorate is moving to the left in part because more moderate and conservative voters are disengaging from the party

There are a lot of implications to mull, with 941 days until the next presidential primary.

But one hypothesis is off the table.