944: Talk money to me (about Nebraska)
What's the value of adding a US Senate seat to the competitive map?
Most comparisons between politics and investing are lame.
Here’s one that is not: when a congressional race goes from 0% likely to flip to 10% likely to flip. That is worth millions of dollars, and the work that goes into making it happen should be valued as such.
Today is a good day to talk about that.
Because a state that Trump won by 21 points is about to have a competitive Senate election.
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosts one of the premier ‘ratings agencies’ that evaluate the likelihood of a party winning a race.
When independent US Senate candidate Dan Osborn announced his second run in Nebraska this morning, their race rating moved from “Safe GOP” to “Likely GOP”.
We wrote about why his race was so important in Cornhusker Jackpot last October:
What is the best use of money to beat the authoritarian threat and sickening polarization that threaten America?
For three years, we have investigated this question along with the most fascinating thinkers and doers from political science to technology to campaigning. How much is a US House seat worth? What does “The Chart” on midterm spending tell us?
There are some truisms: the political marketplace is bonkers inefficient, volatility among voters is underrated, and candidates weighed down by a party brand can achieve “escape velocity” by differentiating.
Those themes are all manifest in the US Senate race in Nebraska between independent Dan Osborn and GOP incumbent Deb Fischer. This is a live case study to answer the question: how much is a US Senate seat worth?
We have some comparables: in 2022, the Georgia race between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker cost at least $500 million ($250 million by candidates, $233 million by outside groups not factoring in other spending on voter turnout, education, etc.).
But that race was a toss-up. How much is it worth to have a marginal shot? Florida’s US Senate seat was only forecast to have a 15% chance of flipping at its max height and saw roughly $150 million in spending
So how much is it worth having a 10% chance of winning a Senate seat?
Financially, backing into prior spending would figure that if a seat is worth $500 million, then a 10% chance is worth $50 million. The zero sum nature of partisan politics amplifies the value of bringing a new seat onto the map.1
And for democracy, there are even bigger positive externalities: when a seat is “Safe Republican” or “Safe Democrat,” that means voters have no meaningful choice - and incumbents must move to the center to meet voters where they are.2
You can read the full thing here.
And spend a few minutes thinking about the activities that go into putting more seats on the board. Not just abstractly, but specifically.
How much is it worth?
Talking about that value doesn’t just matter for Nebraska, or for the US Senate. It matters to our full community of doers and donors and dreamers who have to evaluate where to make the most difference.
944 days until the next Democratic presidential primary (talk about a tough valuation!)
PS Sending a bit early today as I’m (mostly) logging off for 24hrs. See you tomorrow!