949: Four thoughts on the bill

OBBB passed and will be with us for a while

When I was a kid, we had a Big Beautiful Bill who cut the debt and put America on a path to financial stability:

Now I’ve got kids of my own, and the “Big Beautiful Bill” that Trump will sign tomorrow is the opposite.

We’ve got four things to say about it:

1. This bill is terrible and it will have very real negative effects

2. Persuadable voters need to hear how its bad from credible messengers

3. The course of action is go win power back by beating Republicans

4. Candidates launching challenges to GOP incumbents in July really need to get support so they can focus on hammering this bill

It hurts real people. Now & in future.

The most important thing to say is that this is a bad bill that will hurt real human beings. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has a good summary of the provisions and The Liberal Patriot covered the implications for healthcare politics.

Persuadable Persuadables

There has been a big debate, especially since the NYC mayoral primary, about how different Democratic stakeholders are using their platforms to communicate about the present threat of MAGA and what should be done about it moving forward.

One camp, typically more progressive, refers to any WelcomeFest-ish discussion as a distraction from focusing on how MAGA is bad. This is true if your platform has an audience of low-information, persuadable voters. Find credible messengers trusted by your audience.

For example, if you have a large audience of Catholics (or a cross-pressured uncle) it may be effective share Cardinal Robert McElroy mass deportations:

"It's right to be able to control our borders. However, what's going on now is something far beyond that. It's not only incompatible with Catholic teaching, it's inhumane and morally repugnant."

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Motivate More Winning

However, if you are reading this newsletter, there is a 99% chance you are not a low-information persuadable voter. You’re an active participant in our politics.

You know the bill is bad. But for most Americans, this bill isn’t yet real. It’s also legitimately a very unwieldy, confusing bill. Remember how many people struggled to understand what was in Biden’s big bills? Same story here.

So what can we do about it? Here’s Matt Yglesias:

(Maine Rep. Jared) Golden called his “no” vote on OBBBA one of the easiest votes he’s taken, which is a reminder of the incredible — and incredibly underrated — value of finding nominees who can win in tough states and districts. By my count, there are about 25 House seats that Trump won by the same (or smaller) margin as ME-2 that are held by Republicans. If running Golden-esque candidates had won a third of those seats, Democrats would have a majority in the House. It would be a majority that progressives would find frustrating in terms of its limited willingness to advance an affirmative progressive agenda. But it wouldn’t be stripping health care from millions of people or exploding the budget deficit.

…

Winning is really valuable, not just for the things it lets you do, but for the things it lets you stop.

If just three swing races were replaced by a Democrat who over-performed by the same margin as Golden or Adam Gray or Kristen McDonald Rivet, millions Americans would not be losing health insurance.

Winning matters, and so does prioritization. This is a moment to motivate the high-information actors in the Democratic ecosystem to focus on winning.

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Lock In

Love this message from Adam Carlson, highlighted his ratings of House districts currently help by Republicans that could flip. He’s got a bunch of our favorite targets on there.

Adam is on the more progressive end of the spectrum, making him an effective messenger for the full Democratic coalition.

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Seriously, Lock In

488 days until those candidates can flip a seat in the midterms, and 949 days until the first presidential primary.