955: Who Sticks in a Wave?

2018 to 2026

Democrats flipped 41 seats in the House during the 2018 blue wave, but then lost a staggering dozen of those red-to-blue freshmen just two years later, in 2020. That kind of collapse was unprecedented: in the prior 50 years, no party had ever lost more than six House seats while also winning the presidency.

Democratic freshman lost in blue states like California and New York, and in red states like Iowa, Florida, Oklahoma, Utah, and South Carolina.

There’s renewed buzz about another blue wave incoming, which The Washington Post explored this morning:

If history is any guide, Democrats should gain seats in the House and Senate, since that has been the pattern of the party out of power in off-year contests, with a few notable exceptions.

Beyond what the historical record suggests, there is an additional warning sign for Trump allies who want to continue single-party GOP rule in Washington: Democrats have made big gains in special elections since Trump took office in January 2025. A Washington Post analysis of these races suggests Democrats might be on track for a very good 2026.

Among all special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris’s vote share in 2024 by 13 percentage points, based on Harris-Trump baselines calculated by the Downballot, an election data newsletter. That’s the largest shift toward any party in years. In fact, all but four of the 31 special elections have seen movement toward Democrats.

You can read the whole piece here.

The Edges of the Battleground

The reaction to blue wave potential should not just be optimism, but aggression. We need to consider how Democrats can stretch the battlefield. Lakshya Jain’s presentation at WelcomeFest gave specific examples of where Democrats can extend:

Watch the full thing here and check out Lakshya’s slides here.

Democrats Should Try Harder to Win

An occasional wave win isn’t enough, though. Democrats must try harder to keep the majority. We laid out some of this approach in Democrats Should Try Harder To Win Tough Races.

There are no cheat codes. Constituents also care how seat-flippers actually legislate.

Of the dozens of Democrats who entered the House after the 2018 blue wave, Jared Golden was the only one still standing in a Trump district after 2022. It is probably not a coincidence that Golden breaks from the party more. He went into the last midterm with a voting record that would allow him to credibly distance himself from Biden; he voted with Biden 88% of the time. Compare this to those who lost:

• Tom O’Halleran (voted with Biden 100% of the time)

• Cindy Axne (100%)

• Tom Malinowski (99%)

• Sean Patrick Maloney (100%)

• Elaine Luria (99%)

• Al Lawson (100%)

Waving to Higher Office

The 2018 class had other dynamics that will not be present immediately after 2026: redistricting and realignment. Some candidates in high-SES districts survived 2020 due to the same class realignment that is leading Democrats do better the fewer people vote, as in special elections, and do worse when more people vote (as Pew showed yesterday on Trump winning a full-turnout scenario).

It also had superstars ascending to higher office, like Senator Elissa Slotkin and the Democratic nominees for both off-year governors races, Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger and New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill.

They jumped into politics in President Donald Trump’s first term. They ascended to Congress with similar résumés. They text all the time in a group chat.

Now Abigail Spanberger, Mikie Sherrill and Elissa Slotkin are all playing leading roles for the Democratic Party — a trio of centrist women with national security backgrounds who helped retake the House in 2018 and this year hope to steer their beleaguered party back toward winning.

Read the whole thing here, and consider how important it is to get more of these group chats going after 2026.

Surviving the Undertow

Democrats cannot just ride the wave of high-propensity voters every few midterms. Enough must survive the undertow to keep majorities and serve as the farm team for higher office runs.

Democrats made massive gains in 2018, but too many of those victories were fleeting. If 2026 is shaping up to be another opportunity, we can’t rely on national tides alone. We need more candidates who fit their districts, are empowered to break with the party when necessary, and invest in local brands strong enough to withstand backlash.

Special elections hint at momentum. But turning that into a durable majority requires learning from the last wave, not just getting excited for the next one. 2018 was good. 2026 needs to be great.

494 days until the midterms, and 955 days until the presidential primary.