962: Structuring Debt
Putting an irresponsible GOP on the defensive
New articles from Vox and The New York Times covers an issue both parties struggle to reconcile: fiscal discipline.
Vox: Democrats can no longer paper over their party’s core contradiction
The new Democratic coalition is marked by big ideas for spending money, and high-income voters who only want to tax even higher-earners. As Eric Levitz writes, “although Dems developed grander ambitions for social spending over the past decade, they simultaneously grew more averse to raising taxes on anyone but the super-rich.”
NYT: Record debt limit increase would break Republican precedent
Meanwhile, the GOP faces its own contradiction. The short-term political question is whether the party in power will pay an electoral price for abandoning fiscal responsibility.
The headline of the NYT piece goes on to say “A proposed $5 trillion debt limit increase could make it hard for Republicans to maintain their fiscal hawk credibility.”
Emphasis on could lose credibility.
Playing Against Type
Democrats lost credibility on immigration because voters were predisposed to believe the party would prioritize illegal immigrants over citizens, voters could actually see the impact of the migrant crisis, and Republicans hammered it nonstop.
Hanging fiscal irresponsibility on the GOP neck is a more difficult task.
Voters are predisposed to trust Republicans on fiscal issues, impacts are more diffuse over time & place, and Democrats are not prioritizing this line of attack.
Sheep Die in the End
Concerns over federal debt are often compared to The Boy Who Cried Wolf, a parable about false alarms.
You don’t need to obsess over Debt-to-GDP ratios to feel like this time debt concerns are different. But the boy warning about wolves is drowned out by a crowd insisting wolves don’t exist. Or worse, the false Republican idea that sheep will grow faster than wolves can eat them.
The moral of the story is that liars are not believed even when they tell the truth. But when it comes to the debt, little boy is drowned out by a town saying that wolves don’t even exist (or the GOP narrative: freely roaming sheep will grow so fast that the wolves can’t eat them).
The story ends with the sheep dying. That must have caused some political problems for the Mayor! When federal debt hits the fan, I wouldn’t want to be the party that voters think is fiscally irresponsible.
People Get It
The debt-doesn’t-matter crowd has an annoying cousin, the normies-won’t-understand-debt crowd. Budgets, debt, and deficits can be wonky, complex issues.
But some politicians are able to make it clear. We are collecting examples of Democrats who make a persuasive case for how the GOP is fiscally irresponsible. Got any examples? Will share some out - like MGP & Adam Gray at WelcomeFest, and Tom Suozzi grilling Bessent - next week.
962 days until the next presidential primary, but far fewer to structure the debt debate.
I’m so glad you brought this up. This should be a winnable point for mainstream Democrats.
1. Republicans have been getting a free pass for years! Fact check the track record of Republican versus Democrat presidents. Republicans are far more irresponsible.
2. Trump is, as always, taking it to an absurd degree and the Republican Party is going along with him
3. As a run-of-the-mill, American, should I care? Yes! Deficits at this level drive up inflation and interest rates today, so your car and house payments — everything — is more expensive. It creates risk in our economy that will, someday, come home to roost if we don’t deal with it. It is a massive wealth transfer from young people to old. It is the same as the older generation running up a massive credit card debt for young people to pay off. With interest!
4. Let’s be reasonable about policy. We have to tax the ultra wealthy and exert some actual fiscal discipline and cost cutting. (And not DOGE’s government destroying/data stealing escapades of Elon Musk.)