Another Theory of Electoral College Bias

Campaigns matter

Will the electoral college be biased against Democrats this year?

Polling shows it may not be.

Most analysis of this decreasing bias centers on shifting coalition dynamics.

Josh Barro

summarized the findings in Another Theory on Why Electoral College Bias Is Declining:

… polling suggests that Trump has been making gains compared to four years ago, but those gains are very electorally inefficient: his inroads with younger minority voters are helping him run up the score in Florida and lose by less in New York, and are likely to help him reclaim Sun Belt states like Georgia and Arizona, but the Times-Siena polls don’t show him making the gains he needs in disproportionately white Rust Belt states in order to get to 270 electoral votes. In fact, Harris may be running slightly better than Biden did with white voters four years ago.

Read Barro’s whole thing here, which makes a compelling point on the relationships between rising home prices and rightward shifts in the electorate.

But I want to propose another possibility (and then give you something to do about it).

Here’s the simple theory: campaigns matter.

And a major aspect of campaigns is paid media - all the ads swing state voters get, compared to the “earned media” news that the rest of the nation consumes. Kamala’s campaign could have a comparative advantage in places where there are lots of ads.

NYC vs Philly

Take the example of New York City vs. Philadelphia. Both cities are around one-third non-Hispanic white. And The New York Times has been polling both. Check out the sharp decline in NYC compared to Philly:

What could explain this?

Pennsylvania is a swing state, which means voters are getting pummeled by campaign ads on television & radio (“paid media”). While New York has many competitive congressional races, the presidential campaigns are not spending money here - well, aside from whatever you want to call last night’s rally at MSG. So NYC voters are consuming information through the media (and social media). And Democrats have a tendency to be ineffective in making the case that way.

This is a theory from

Matthew Yglesias

, which we discussed at our inaugural WelcomeFest gathering in July. When it comes time to fork big money over to send a message to voters, Democrats tend to be highly disciplined and focus on effective, oftentimes moderate messages. From 2021:

Democrats’ paid media program is the party’s messaging strong suit. In the paid media space, Democrats try pretty hard to think about the actual electorate and pick messages that are likely to appeal to persuadable voters. The whole problem is that their “earned media” strategies (what the candidates and allied groups say and what kind of coverage they seek) tend not to match this.

Basically, if what a voter hears about the parties is from news coverage then Democrats will do worse than if a voter is getting a lot of “paid media” like television ads and mail.

Campaigns Matter. So Do You.

In short, what campaigns say really matters.¹

We have spent years studying how candidates move persuadable voters, and close the gap between those effective ads and ineffective narratives. The candidates on our Win The Middle slate are doing it through BOTH “earned” and “paid” media. At this late stage in the race, the latter is what needs a boost - and you can support them here.

Sacrifice

Do not believe “The Undecided Nihilists” who deny that voters are persuadable.

And do not believe those who think all politicians are selfish or corrupt, as we wrote earlier this week. Check out this recent ad from Jared Golden featuring his wife discussing the sacrifices their young family makes. It echoes what we said earlier this week in A Noble Vocation:

The House candidates on our Win The Middle slate are proud to be American, and have sacrificed to be candidates.

Whitney Fox has two young daughters, as does military veteran Rep. Jared Golden.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is a young small business owner with a toddler. She regularly flies back and forth cross-country from her rural Washington district to the other Washington.

The sacrifices they make are real. And so is the impact of what voters hear. Together, we can make sure they are hearing the right messages - in the news, and on their screens.

Looking for more to read? Check out these new national profiles of Blue Dog co-chairs:

• Rep. Jared Golden in The New York Times (In Maine Battleground, Democrat Golden Grasps to Win Over Trump Voters)

• Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez in The Los Angeles Times (This Democrat pulled off one of the country’s biggest upsets. Can she win again in Trump country?)

1. This was especially true in 2022, when the “Red Wave” was interrupted in places Democrats invested heavily in moderate paid media (as covered in Revenge of the Never Trumpers)