Beat Meta, Then MAGA
For this year's resolution commit to making sure your dollars go the furthest
It’s the one part of the holidays everyone dreads: end of year fundraising appeals: you get bombarded with emails, texts, mail, calls, and digital ads. Save Democracy! I need your help! I’m launching a new digital program and I need you!
But a lot of that money goes back to Meta, the fundraising firm, and their texting subcontractor. And the money that makes it to the campaign? Often siphoned off each cycle to candidates who don’t have a chance at winning or are basically guaranteed to win, gerrymandering Democratic dollars in districts where money isn’t needed.
That’s why we formed our Win The Middle slate: incumbents and candidates in Trump-won districts who are doing what it takes to differentiate from the unpopular national brand and win.
So unsubscribe from the emails, Stop2End the texts and read why we think these 12 candidates are worth your money. ALL of them are in districts won by Trump. So don’t reply to the Meta ad, or the YouTube pre-roll, or the fundraising text - go straight to the slate to beat MAGA.
Where To Invest
Pragmatic Incumbents Who Won Trump Districts in 2024: Adam Gray, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Kristen McDonald Rivet, Tom Suozzi, Vicente Gonzalez
These incumbents are among the most endangered, and valuable, members of the Democratic caucus. They’re beating back extremists and holding together the Democratic majority. In Washington’s 3rd, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is seeking a third term. She’s never backed down from a fight, even if it means taking on her own party on immigration or ensuring voters have the right to choose their own representative. Kristen McDonald Rivet was the top over-performer of 2024, running 9 points ahead of a generic Democrat in a district Trump won by 2 points. She’s an independent voice for Michigan’s 8th district (and a guest on our Depolarizers podcast). In New York’s 3rd, Tom Suozzi showed how Democrats can turn immigration into a winning issue. Adam Gray was the only Democrat in 2024 who flipped a district Trump won. He founded the Problem Solvers Caucus in the California legislature and now serves as whip for the Blue Dog Coalition. Texas has been ground zero for the GOP’s efforts to win the midterms by changing the districts. Vicente Gonzalez can win his Texas district because he understands where his voters stand on issues like guns and immigration.
Candidates Who Over-performed in 2024 Who Are Back To Win: Christina Bohannan, Janelle Stelson, Rebecca Cooke
These candidates massively over-performed in 2024, and had the Presidential election been closer, they likely could have won. This year they are back again to beat the extreme MAGA incumbents. Rebecca Cooke is taking on incumbent Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd, who has spent more time fighting his constituents than fighting for them. Last cycle she ran 7 percent ahead of the Democratic ticket and she’s built a broad coalition from Bernie Sanders to the Blue Dog Caucus because of her populist independent brand. Janelle Stelson spent her career as a trusted local news anchor, and that credibility led to her over-performance last cycle. She’s back to finally finish the career of Trump stooge and extremist Scott Perry who hasn’t been representing the voters of PA-10. Christina Bohannan has put up two amazing over-performances against incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and came within 800 votes of winning in 2024. With tariffs hitting Iowa farmers where it hurts, Bohannan has a golden opportunity to flip Iowa’s 1st.
Candidates With Unique Biographies That Can Flip Districts: Jamie Ager, Bobby Pulido, Sarah Trone Garriott, Shannon Bird
These candidates have the type of independent background that can win tough elections. Jamie Ager is running in North Carolina’s 11th with a farming background that can appeal to independent rural voters. Ager calls himself a Mountain Democrat and isn’t afraid to call the party out for failing rural voters. In Texas’s 15th, Bobby Pulido brings a unique background as a Tejano music star. He’s emphasizing a credible vision for border security. In Colorado’s 8th district, Shannon Bird brings bipartisan credibility on crime and opportunity while incumbent Gabe Vasquez has been cutting Medicaid in one of the highest Medicaid districts in the country. And in Iowa’s 3rd, Sarah Trone Garriott, who has over-performed in every state level election she has contested. As a Lutheran minister, she has credibility with Iowa’s Christian community. Her opponent, incumbent Zach Nunn, has been more focused on his next office than representing his current one.
Welcome’s Record
Welcome recently released Deciding to Win, a report that analyzes what Democrats have gotten wrong in recent years and offers a blueprint for how the party can win again. All of the candidates on Welcome’s Win the Middle slate are leaders who are actively deciding to win in the types of districts Democrats need to be able to compete in to win back the House.
In the 2022 and 2024 election cycles, Welcome invested more than $10 million supporting a dozen of the Democratic Party’s most over-performing U.S. House challengers and incumbents. Welcome’s 2024 slate over-performed Kamala Harris in Trump-won districts by an average of nearly six points, demonstrating that candidates who “decide to win” the middle can beat expectations, even on red turf.
Independent analysis by Split Ticket confirms that WelcomePAC’s slate had the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of any Democratic group in 2024.
The Win the Middle slate exhibits Welcome’s commitment to supporting Democrats who represent the center of the country, not the center of the Party.
We can win – especially in Trump districts – by backing leaders with histories of over-performance, good governance, differentiation from the Democratic Party brand, and bucking the status quo. We hope you’ll join us.
Time to Win the Middle
Let’s make a resolution for 2026 – and every year after that – to Win the Middle.