Best in the Big Tent: Post-Election Edition
Best in the Big Tent: Post-Election Edition
Republican gubernatorial voters in Georgia add to the Democratic majority, mainstream Democrats overperform in the midterms, and Democrats move to elevate South Carolina to first in the nation
1. Republican gubernatorial voters just gave Democrats their 51st seat in the U.S. Senate.
For all the polarization talk, yesterday’s Senate runoff in Georgia marks the latest reminder of the power of voters in the middle. After weeks of being aggressively courted by both Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker’s campaigns, Brian Kemp voters delivered a decisive victory to the blue team.
Don’t believe that Republican gubernatorial voters were the focus? Just watch the ads that both Republicans and Democrats invested in during the runoff.
These voters, who split their tickets between Gov. Kemp and Sen. Warnock back in November, paved the way for yesterday’s runoff. In November, more than 200,000 Georgians who voted Kemp for Governor refused to support Walker for Senate, keeping the GOP nominee under 50% and even giving Warnock a slight edge. (For more on these voters, check out the New York Times’ breakdown of this year’s Kemp-Warnock crossover precincts.)
As we put it in a pre-November interview, those trying to win close elections must focus on ticket splitters:
“‘When we think about our politics more generally, these voters are the depolarizing force in our politics,’ Liam Kerr, co-founder of the Democratic-backed Welcome PAC, told Newsweek. ‘We need to be looking at what we need to do to elevate these voters.’”
Polarization is rising at the poles, but that makes voters in the middle even more important. Georgia should serve as a reminder that the path to a sustainable Democratic majority runs through ticket splitters and party switchers. As a bonus, these depolarizing voters can reduce the hostility plaguing our democracy.
2. Mainstream Democrats averted the Red Wave in swing districts.
It’s been a busy month for Democrats, especially the mainstream center-left. As we described in The Bulwark a few weeks ago, there was a red wave but it was thwarted by brand-differentiated moderates running in swing districts:
“There’s a type of wave called—seriously—a dumper. You get dumpers when waves go from deep to shallow water, and so curl and crash down without running up on shore. The 2022 red wave was bigger than expected—but it took a big dump when it hit moderate Democrats focused on persuasion who were backed up by credible Republican Never Trump messengers.”
Democratic overperformers from Sharice Davids to Jared Golden to Adam Frisch went out of their way to differentiate themselves from their party’s toxic far-left brand. That meant making overtures to independents and moderate Republicans to let them know they were welcome. Want to see what it looks like to win the middle? Just check out their ads.
3. Democrats want to make South Carolina first in the nation on their presidential primary calendar.
Goodbye, Iowa. Led by President Biden’s recommendations, the DNC voted to elevate South Carolina on Friday. After the vote, our statement from co-founder Lauren Harper reiterated how this approach syncs with our founding focus:
“The Welcome Party launched ahead of the 2020 primary to engage independents who can vote in South Carolina and New Hampshire. These are the voters we talk about needing to win, but we don't engage with them to ensure they get to the polls for primary elections. With this calendar change, Democrats will listen to both the heart of the party and holders of power. Black voters and swing voters have been elevated; now is the time to start engaging them to ensure a representative electorate.”
Tweet of the Month
Mainstreaming the Mainstream
Below are highlights from the past month in essential big tent outlets.
But first, here are the best of the rest…
The Democrats Remembered How Politics Works Again by Jonathan Chait in New York Magazine:
“The middle may be diminishing, but it still holds the balance of power. After years of talking themselves into disbelieving it, Democrats are reacquainting themselves with political reality.”
Center-left Democratic governors show how it’s done by Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post:
“For running solid races, displaying long coattails, defending freedom and showing how Democrats defeat the ‘coastal elites’ jab, we can say well done, Govs. Whitmer and Polis and Gov.-elect Shapiro.”
How Moderates Won the Midterms by Yascha Mounk in The Atlantic:
“Democrats who focused on the economy, eschewed the party’s progressive wing, and reached out to traditional Republican voters also performed well in other states. In Ohio, the Democratic Senate candidate, Tim Ryan, fell well short of beating J. D. Vance, but he far outperformed other Democratic candidates on the ballot in that state.”
Democrats’ Path to 50% in Swing States & Districts by Aliza Astrow for Third Way:
“What ultimately decided these races was not just Democrats’ ability to win a majority of Independent voters, but their ability to win these swing voters by wide margins, and to persuade some Republican voters to abandon Republican candidates.”
David Shor’s (Premature) Autopsy of the 2022 Midterm Elections by Eric Levitz in New York Magazine:
“It also illustrates the power of message discipline. Democrats in competitive districts aired more ads than Democrats in safe ones. And they also were much more careful about which messages they amplified with those ads and which issues they chose to embrace.”
How independent voters saved Democrats by Christian Paz in Vox:
“Democrats would not have had such a good election night without the support of independent voters. These mystical swing voters don’t affiliate themselves with a specific party, tend to be more ideologically moderate, and represent a plurality of voters in the United States. But they are also hard to reach, often less politically engaged, and frequently confused with ‘weak partisans’ (less energetic Democrats or Republicans) because they can have ideological leans.”
Why Democrats Are Losing Hispanic Voters by Tim Alberta in The Atlantic:
“The left has alienated America’s fastest-growing group of voters just when they were supposed to give the party a foolproof majority.”
Best of The Liberal Patriot
The Cultural Left (Still) Puts a Ceiling on Democratic Support by Ruy Teixeira:
“Democrats lost the nationwide popular vote by 3 points (48-51), along with control of the House. Working class Democratic support declined…..again (down 9 margin points). Hispanic support declined….again (down 11 points). Black support declined….again (down 14 points). Republicans got 40 percent of the Hispanic working class House vote and 45 percent among Hispanic men. They got 19 percent among black men.”
Democrats’ Hispanic Problem: The Sequel by Ruy Teixeira:
“These data suggest Democrats are far from out of the woods in terms of their Hispanic voter support. In fact, they indicate the problem is getting worse. More broadly, Democrats would be well-advised to look at these results in the context of their ongoing decline in working class support among nonwhites.”
Best of Slow Boring
A lot of the best political messages are really boring by Matt Yglesias:
“A little blowback for saying something very normal is, I think, a good thing. It means that you get to be normal without being boring, to ensure that people hear what you are trying to say at a time when most Democrats — including ones like Fetterman, who progressives are pretty enthusiastic about — are trying pretty hard to give off normal person vibes.”
Democrats pulled off one of the best midterms ever by Matt Yglesias:
“Education polarization fell slightly, though it was a smaller fall than between 2016 and 2018, so the trend is still increasing. Racial depolarization continued, as Democrats did worse than in the past with Black and Hispanic votes but better with white ones. Of course in levels of support, white voters continue to be more Republican than non-white voters. But the trend is in the other direction.”
Best of The Bulwark
Conservatism Inc. Is Breaking Up With Trump. Again. by Ansley Skipper:
“Conservatism Inc. can talk big about the GOP finally filing for a divorce from Trump to marry their mistress (DeSantis). But for better or worse, it’s Republican voters who get to make that call. And so long as Republican voters still want Trump, then conservative elites will comply.”
The (Nonpartisan) Polls Were Fine, Actually by Lakshya Jain and Dan Guild:
“The nonpartisan polling was actually pretty good in 2022. Most of the phantom Republican strength in pre-election statewide polling was a function of junk firms with poor data quality and low transparency spamming the polling averages with bad polls.”
Revenge of the Never Trumpers by Liam Kerr:
“The big question for the GOP is whether or not the party can course correct before some percentage of these Never Trump Republican voters become plain old, moderate Democrats.”
Best of The Welcome Party
Midterm Pre-Mortem CliffsNotes:
“Victories tonight will be driven by volatility — voters demonstrating the reality that there is a winnable middle and candidates showing that investing in brand-differentiation and outreach to the middle can make the difference. Losses will be impacted not only by the party’s brand, but by disinvestment and shortcomings — as a party, but also for WelcomePAC in this first cycle — in communicating that differentiation to voters.”
Cashing the Bet Slips on Volatility:
“The solution is clear for our fractured pro-democracy team — the empathetic pragmatists, the popularists, the moderates, the Never Trumpers, the democracy reformers. It’s time to organize the middle, not just advertise it or debate with the far-left. The 2024 election cycle starts today.”
Red Wave, Right Lessons:
“Anyone seriously trying to understand why Democrats did better than expected has an easy path: watch the ads of the candidates who overperformed. Anyone reading the cheery, data-free post-election analysis from AOC and Elizabeth Warren that says ‘go left’ should see a disinformation disclaimer and get re-routed to those candidates’ ads.”
Complaints Welcome:
“The Online Left is good at their job — beating impure Democrats. They clearly don’t see their job as beating Republicans: Justice Democrats and Our Revolution have never flipped a single Republican-held seat (a drought that continued this November)… Accepting this reality is essential. We are not shrinking a tent or excluding anyone, nor saying ‘I told you so’ (others forecast this more eloquently!).”