Blue Friday Deal
Early investment backing moderate Democrats against quietly vulnerable GOP extremists is the best deal in politics. Buy today!
’Tis the season for discounts. Amidst all the inflation talk, we should harken back to the best deal in politics: backing moderate Democrats in center-right House districts.
The Welcome team was raised to know the value of a good deal. As Democratic investors, we are always on the lookout for the best return. And with billions of dollars pouring into just a sliver of toss-up districts, high-return investments abound in stretch districts by backing Democratic candidates who can win over enough swing voters to flip a district.
This is only our 2nd time asking for financial support, but so many stepped up the first time that we had to ask again. It is clear you recognize the value that the market is missing.
The Value of A District
How much should a party be willing to pay to win the marginal House seat? More than ever, due to three drivers:
Total spending is way up (Congressional spending jumped from $2B to $9B from Obama to Biden)
Competitive seats are way down, concentrating all that money on fewer races
Control of Congress comes down to fewer seats than ever before, drastically increasing the value of a marginal seat
And yet in 2022, parties did not spend a single cent of more than $500 million in independent expenditure funds in competitive districts like California’s 41st and Colorado’s 3rd. With parties missing opportunities like this, it’s clear there are deals to be had.
The rise of data in politics has led many to assume the political marketplace is efficient. But the reality is far from it: Parties regularly fail to contest winnable districts and over-spend in districts that end up being blowouts. Ratings agencies and parties assume that House outcomes will closely correlate to Presidential outcomes, but in reality moderate candidates overperform and extremists underperform these fundamentals. This opens opportunities to win districts that are flying under the radar.
While prognosticators proclaim an efficient market, The Chart below shows that party spending is anything but efficient. National Democratic institutions spent zero dollars ($0) in CO-03, MI-10, MT-01, WI-03 and CA-41 – each of which was decided by less than 5 points. Winning those five districts would have given Democrats a majority.
That would have been enough for a Speaker Jeffries. And Mike Johnson could just go back to being a guy with a fake-sounding name.
These seats are our Blue Friday bargain seats!
Need a gift for the anti-authoritarian value investor in your life? Looking for the most leveraged way to support Democrats in 2024? Become a recurring supporter of WelcomePAC today.
Our Track Record
WelcomePAC launched midway through the 2022 cycle, and identified 21 undervalued districts. While just four of those districts missed by the market received enough support to be credible: the market changed - three of those four are now rated as toss-ups.
We focused on two districts last cycle: California’s 41st and Colorado’s 3rd. Neither district saw a cent in independent party spending, but we saw the opportunity: MAGA incumbents and charismatic, moderate Democratic challengers.
Now, the pundits have woken up: Both Colorado's 3rd and California’s 41st are rated by the ratings agencies as top pick-up opportunities for Democrats and Punchbowl recently declared CA-41 one of the top 5 majority makers. Democrats spent nothing on these seats.
This cycle we are targeting six seats, enough to make the majority. Give now to get in on the deal of the season!