Center-Out Contrast
Center-Out Contrast
Tough compromises, strong principles, and WelcomeFest
The race is on to define Kamala Harris.
Kamala can emphasize contrast on the issues where Democrats hold an advantage (abortion, Social Security, Medicare) and demonstrate center-out leadership on issues where voters favor Republicans (immigration, energy, spending). Polling shows ‘the upside for Harris is huge’ because she is not yet well-defined, with voters not crediting her for Biden’s triumphs nor blaming her for the Administration’s failings.
But this mushy view will be brief. As Sarah Longwell recently noted, “Public opinion is like cement. It’s soft at first and then it hardens. The next three weeks are definitive. She needs to define herself before Trump defines her.”
On the issues where Trump is playing up the contrast with Kamala - immigration and energy - the Harris campaign is already pivoting to the middle. And in doing so, she aligns with Democrats who have led from the center-out.
Immigration
The presidential election may turn on how Americans view the two parties on immigration and border security, a highly ranked issue on which voters have favored Republicans. As we noted on CNN, 61% of voters disapproved of the Biden-Harris Administration’s handling of the border and immigration before the crackdown.
That’s why the most important news of the last week is not the Kamala boom on TikTok, as fun and energizing as the memes can be. It was this CBS News headline: Kamala Harris' campaign chief signals she would keep Biden's border crackdown if elected.
The groundwork for the Harris path on immigration has been laid most effectively by her former Senate colleague Chris Murphy (D-CT), whose Bipartisan Border Bill showed Americans which party is serious on the issue.
We broke down last week how Kamala is Moderate. Today we are breaking down the path to convincing voters of this reality on immigration, energy, and other major policy issues: a path demonstrated by Murphy and fellow Senator Michael Bennet. And tomorrow, Senators Murphy and Bennet will join us for the inaugural WelcomeFest. If you’re in DC tomorrow between 1pm and 6pm, join us - tickets here.
Three members of our Win The Middle slate of House candidates will also present at WelcomeFest: John Avlon, Rep. Jared Golden, Janelle Stelson, and Will Rollins. They are four of the most dynamic Democrats who can take back the House. You can support them here.
“It’s True” on the Border
Republicans are drumming up lies about Kamala the “border czar.” But on immigration, the most memorable line this year was also the highlight of the State of the Union:
Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) gave a solemn nod and mouthed “it’s true” when Biden ran down a list of immigration priorities that would have been addressed by a bipartisan package negotiated by the Oklahoma Republican.
As soon as Biden mentioned the stalled reform bill, cameras immediately panned to Lankford, who was swiftly abandoned by his party after the months-long effort caved with the loss of support from key Senate Republicans.
Finding the truth on any policy with today’s GOP can be tough. But immigration is especially fraught with complexity, misinformation, and partisan electoral incentives that undermine legislating. Despite these hurdles, Senator Chris Murphy changed the dynamic over the past year by leading cross-partisan negotiations on the Bipartisan Border Bill with Lankford. The successful launch of the bill, subsequently undermined by Donald Trump, provided not only the highlight of the State of the Union but a path forward for communicating with voters.
Here’s Murphy on PBS explaining the bill a month before the State of the Union:
Listen, there has been nothing done on immigration in Washington in 40 years.
And that is because both parties have refused to come to the middle and try to find some common ground. This is an old-fashioned compromise, one that we don't often see in Washington these days, in which there are going to be some Democrats that vote no and a lot more Republicans that vote no.
But what we have achieved, I think, is important. The reality is, this country can't handle 10,000 people coming every day to our southern border with the resources that we have. We shouldn't be OK with an asylum claim taking a decade before it's ultimately processed.
So, the reforms we're making here are going to make more sense of a broken immigration system. I know it's not everything that the left wants. It's not everything that the right wants. But I think our job is to come here and find these tough compromises.
Murphy was catching heat from progressive activists back home in Connecticut for taking this courageous leap to do, well, actual legislating. The political downsides for Murphy were clear, but he persisted anyway. The upside for Harris is even more clear - and it’s a great sign her campaign is seizing it.
The Long Game
Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO) was a negotiator on the last major attempt at bipartisan immigration reform in 2013. He has a proven track record of both winning over swing voters and leading on pragmatic policy. Election analysts show he performed three points better than expected in the midterms, continuing a streak of over-performance that began when he won his first election by overcoming the Tea Party wave in 2010. In 2016, he ran two points ahead of Hilary Clinton.
Bennet does not just play the long game for electoral politics, but on policy. Widely credited for his leadership on the Child Tax Credit, the former Denver Public Schools superintendent has an extensive track record delivering for families. On taxes, Bennet has noted that simplifying the tax code and reducing the deficit are political winners - as Blueprint polling confirms - that can structure an effective contrast with Trump.
Energy is another issue on which Kamala will face questions heightened by the leftist tenor of the 2020 primary - and where Biden had not been forceful enough in communicating the tremendous accomplishment of the Administration delivering energy independence. The Harris for President campaign is already taking a center-out step - similar to on the border. Yesterday, a Politico headline blared “Harris campaign pledges she won’t ban fracking“
Bennet, one of a handful of Democratic Senators to stand firm on energy production, has linked the issue not only to affordability for American families but to the global struggle with Russia.
Simple Pivot
The Harris campaign can continue positioning Kamala as both dynamic and pragmatic - a benefit of not having a competitive primary, as we noted in Kamala is Moderate. The principles can be consistent, with new, straightforward policy appealing to the majority of Americans.
Matt Yglesias, who will be interviewing Senators Murphy & Bennet at WelcomeFest tomorrow, broke it down this morning in The case for a new (shorter and more moderate) policy agenda from Harris.
On MSNBC yesterday, Sarah Longwell - another WelcomeFest speaker - compared Kamala’s changes on topics to those of Vance. While Harris has combined progressive values with a pragmatic worldview, Vance has a principles problem. Changing principles is a much bigger turnoff to voters than a policy pivot.
The latest polling from Blueprint shows the issues where Harris has the edge over Trump - issues where voters Kamala’s views as closer to their own (Social Security and Medicare, Abortion, and Election Integrity). Harris is prosecuting this case effectively, and will continue to do so.
The fracking and border news from the Harris campaign take on two of the issues where Trump has the biggest advantage in voter perception:
Strong principles, a clear pivot center, and a path to win the middle. Put it in concrete.
If you’re in DC, join us at WelcomeFest tomorrow. And wherever you are, invest in the Win The Middle slate of House candidates today.
I do note that you have the Rs having the edge on Energy, which is defined in the article as oil and gas exploration, and, I agree that is a good position.
Other studies on who voters prefer Rs or Ds on issues show that if you just call it environment, the Dems have a very strong favor.
Regardless of the politics, as a committed environmentalist, I dont see that attacking at the level of extraction helps other than raise prices and causes the Saudis and the Russians to produce more. The environmental movements fixation on pipelines is particularly stupid imo as it often just leads to shipping fuel by more environmentally risky rail or water.
If the Dems were to give on extraction, what I would wish that it also include pro environmental moves to reduce consumption and boost alternatives. I think the mandates on Electric Vehicles is not popular, but I dont see why any car should be made that gets less than 30-40 mpgs and we should increase consumption taxes. As it is gasoline taxes do not pay for the roadbuilding of which 50% comes out of general revenues. That wouldnt be too popular.
Good article. I think the pivot on immigration has to be stronger. Sure the border bill was better than nothing, capping asylum claims at 10,000 a day, but that could still produce record numbers of claimants. I think the real issue is that asylum has been misused. Obviously, if all you have to do is say "I claim asylum" at the border to gain entry pending adjudication that takes many years, everybody will do that rather than cross deserts and climb mountains.
The concept behind asylum claims, was started with the backdrop of countries deporting Jews back to Europe to their death in the 1940s, but that is hardly what is going on. Yes, there are probably a small number of politically active people who would be in danger of imprisonment, but the massive amount of people are not coming here for that reason. Fear of gang recruitment or spousal abuse was never considered part of asylum and it is largely unprovable, gangs dont send out memos, and that is one reason why so many claims are turned down. Even with nonfunctional or repressive countries like Venezuela and Haiti, although the governments are repressive, Mexico or Colombia is not sending those people back and there already is a Humanitarian Parole process for those people if they can find US sponsors. I know, I am sponsoring five Ukrainians which is also one of about 12 countries with Humanitarian parole processes. Sponsorship is a much better system than just crossing the border and landing on the streets of NYC which is not helping the Dems politically
I think Dems can distinguish themselves by stopping the majority of asylum and closing the Southern Border while also doing a few popular things to increase legal immigration. Current waits for reunification for brothers and sisters of US citizens is in the order of 15 years and involves millions of people trying to bring in family members, my partners sister from Bangladesh has been waiting 14 years. This would be enormously popular with millions of people waiting for their families. Also DACA remains popular. I think a bill needs to go further on the Southern Border but also could include those pro immigration measures.