Congressional Competition Index Q2: 2026 House Battleground Takes Shape

Democrats are Trying to Expand the Map. Republicans are Gerrymandering it.

Earlier this week, our friends at the Welcome Democracy Institute released their latest Congressional Competitive Index (CCI) report based on the Q2 fundraising numbers released on July 15.

Even though we are still more than a year out from the midterms, the report tells the story of an emerging battleground map with three key factors: Democrats are going on offense more than Republicans, Medicaid cuts from the One Big “Beautiful” Bill could sway key races, and Republicans are attempting to rig maps in their favor, but run the risk of dummymandering themselves.

How it works

The CCI uses two key metrics to help measure competitiveness in a given congressional district.

• The Baseline Competitiveness score (0-4) measures how competitive a seat should be given its Cook PVI score:

  • 4: Even to 6

  • 3: 7-10

  • 2: 11-13

  • 1: 14-15

  • 0: 16+

• The Actual Competitiveness score (0-4) measures how competitive a seat actually is at this point in the cycle based on fundraising numbers from the top candidate in the opposing party:

  • 4: Challenger with over $1 million raised

  • 3: Challenger with at least $500k raised

  • 2: Challenger with at least $250k raised

  • 1: Challenger with under $250k raised

  • 0: No challenger filed or challenger with no money raised

Democrats are going on offense

One of the key findings from the CCI report is that when it comes to contesting districts, enthusiasm and momentum are on the Democrats' side as we head into the second half of 2025.

Of the seven seats that have a PVI between D+6 and R+6 and have an Actual Score of 4 (challenger who has raised more than $1 million), five are held by Republicans and two are held by Democrats. This means that five Democratic challengers have already raised more than $1 million this cycle, compared to just two Republican challengers. When you take a closer look at the data, it gets even worse for Republicans. Those two challengers, Sandy Robertson in NC-01 and Marty O’Donnell in NV-03, are self-funding candidates who have raised… a whopping $265k between the two of them, outside of their own money.

Democrats are faring better when it comes to contesting districts - five candidates have raised north of $1 million so far this cycle, with four of the five of them doing so without self funding. Returning challenger and WelcomePAC endorsee Rebecca Cooke leads the pack with $1.9 million raised against serial screamer and Medicaid cutter Derrick Van Orden.

We should note that the CCI uses fundraising numbers from the Q2 reports and does not include any funds raised after June 30th, which is why candidates who launched in July like Janelle Stelson (support here!) are not included in the report.

Medicaid Cuts Could Decide House Races

In the first seven months of the year, the 119th Congress only passed 31 bills that ended up becoming law. Taking away the fact that that is an incredibly low number compared to past years (maybe that is what happens when you hold votes open for hours at a time), there is one bill that is due to have an outsized impact on the 2026 midterms: The One Big ‘Beautiful’ Bill (OBBB).

One of the most talked about aspects of the OBBB is the cuts to Medicaid, something that Democrats have made a central part of their opposing messaging. Given the expected (but not definite) favorable environment for Democrats, the impending cuts to Medicaid could be the difference maker in a number of Republican-held seats.

Take David Valadao in CA-22. He has regularly won re-election in a district that, up until 2024, voted Democratic in Presidential elections by a significant margin. However, nearly two thirds of his district (64% according to the Kaiser Family Foundation) is on Medicaid, which may explain why he has resorted to only doing tele-town halls. Between angry constituents, a potential blue surge, and ongoing efforts to target him in redistricting, Valadao’s maverick days may be numbered. (To give credit where it’s due: Valadao is one of the last members of Congress who voted to impeach Trump and still retain his seat. However, that probably means that MAGA won’t be trying to save him).

As we move down the list of competitive seats with high numbers of Medicaid recipients, we run into our old pals Scott Perry and Derrick Van Orden. We already know that DVO is a fan of kicking off the 21% of his voters who are on Medicaid. Scott Perry voted to kick 22% of his voters off of Medicaid, despite acknowledging the bill needed “MASSIVE improvements from the Senate”. You know who wouldn’t have voted to kick off any of their voters? Rebecca Cooke (support here!) and Janelle Stelson (support here!)

Gerrymandering is Boosting GOP Chances

While Democrats are expanding the battlefield, Republicans are trying to rig it. It began last week in Texas, where the state legislature and Governor Abbott, at the urging of President Trump, are breaking norms by redrawing congressional maps in a bid to net 3–5 additional Republican seats and help preserve the GOP’s House majority. Now, states like Missouri, Indiana, and Florida are considering similar mid-cycle redraws in a blatantly partisan effort to gain more Republican seats.

While Republicans may think they are creating safe new seats, they may risk a dummymander in some of these new seats. Dummymanders are not new (although drawing them mid-cycle is). We saw something similar happen in Ohio a few years ago, when Republicans tried for a 13-2 map but ended up with a 10-5 advantage after Rep. Marcy Kaptur held on to her Trump-won seat, Emilia Sykes won a new Biden +3 seat, and Greg Landsman defeated former Rep. Steve Chabot in a Cincinnati-based seat.

Traditionally blue states are a bit more handcuffed when it comes to redrawing the maps mid-cycle. California is trying to redraw their districts but would need voter approval in a special election, and New York faces many legal hurdles that would likely delay any new potential map to 2028. States like Maryland, Illinois and Oregon may be able to add a handful of seats between them, but nowhere near the number Republicans could potentially draw.

Republicans may win the redistricting fight in the short term. But by ignoring demographic realities and overcompensating for short-term threats, they risk drawing themselves into competitive races they’re not prepared to defend.

Conclusion

The early 2026 battleground map is not just a snapshot of where the fight is, it's a preview of where it can be. Democrats are outraising Republicans in key swing seats, Medicaid cuts are reshaping the political calculus, and even the GOP’s rigged maps may be shakier than they seem.

If Democrats act early, act boldly, and support the right candidates, this cycle’s House map could look a lot different than the last. It’s not just about flipping seats, it’s about refusing to concede winnable ground.

Now’s the time to invest in the emerging field of competition. Candidates like Rebecca Cooke and Janelle Stelson are already proving what’s possible when we engage early.

Let’s keep going. Let’s welcome democracy in every district, especially the ones they say are unwinnable.