Deciding to Back Winners
Ben McAdams: Recruiting the Calm to Beat the Storm
We may learn something from election outcomes in NYC, Virginia, and New Jersey. But with just one year until the midterms, some necessary actions are already clear.
Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
But it’s usually the best clue we’ve got.
Ben McAdams is a superstar, and redistricting in Utah gives us a chance to make an impact right now.
McAdams needs to run again, and is publicly considering it. Make your voice heard by contributing to his campaign, and follow him on Twitter & Facebook.
Redistricting in Utah
Welcome has been on the lookout for potential opportunities emerging from the mid-decade redistricting processes going on all over the country. Our specialty is harnessing volatility, and new district lines not only change the partisanship makeup of the electorate but reduce the power of incumbency.
The lines are not final in Utah, but the likeliest outcomes all point to a potentially winnable seat in the Salt Lake City area. And, while Democrats have lost 27 of the last 28 federal elections in Utah, the proven winner is eligible.
Top 1% Recruit
The Split-Ticket database has about 1,600 Democratic House candidates. Of the top twelve, just one was a challenger who flipped a seat: the last Democrat to win in Utah.
In 2018, Ben McAdams won a seat on the same ballot with a Democrat who lost the Senate race by 23 points in the same congressional district.
Let’s say that again: Mitt Romney won the congressional district by 23 points, and McAdams also won it. More than 1 in every 7 voters split their tickets for Romney and McAdams.
That gave him an outlandish “Wins Above Replacement” (WAR) score of 15. In 2020, McAdams followed that up with WAR of 8 while narrowly losing in a district that Trump won by nearly double digits.
Both runs from McAdams were in the top-5% of all Democratic candidates. He is an outlier.
Depolarizing
American politics is chaotic.
Ben McAdams is a steady hand.
Does that depolarizing maturity help electorally? Does it help to be a Blue Dog and a New Dem?
We are involved in debates over the value of moderation. In addition to more centrist policies, Democrats who win in red districts and Republicans who win in blue districts all seem to share a calmness. Maybe that’s how they get elected in the first place. Maybe that’s a byproduct of communities more likely to split their tickets.
Let’s leave those debates for another day. Ben McAdams has been a leader on depolarizing policies like fiscal responsibility. He has served in the state legislature, as Mayor of Salt Lake County, and one term in Congress.
I can’t find any shirtless pictures of him online, but safe to say that he’s been vetted.
That doesn’t mean he’s ‘Establishment’ though. He has demonstrated a willingness to buck his party, staying true to his values and constituents even when it was hard.
And voters noticed: McAdams was the most popular member of congress in his home state.
So, you’ve Decided to Win. Now it’s time to back winners. Make your voice heard by contributing to his campaign account, and follow him on Twitter & Facebook.
PS check out this POLITICO coverage on the need to ensure McAdams gets into the race:
McAdams has not launched a campaign, but filed a statement of candidacy earlier this month with the FEC, allowing him to begin raising money. He is expected to announce a bid once a map is finalized, according to two people with direct knowledge of his thinking. The former lawmaker declined to comment.
“He’s clearly the strongest candidate Dems have had anywhere in nearly a decade,” said Liam Kerr, co-founder of Welcome PAC. “We want to take this bigger platform we have and clearly say that he should run — and that people who are listening to our view of the party should show that encouragement by contributing to his campaign account.”
Welcome PAC has been making waves in center-left politics since Trump’s reelection. Their WelcomeFest conference in June featured swing state and district Democrats like Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Maine Rep. Jared Golden. Earlier this week, they issued an expansive report on how Democrats can rebuild after their 2024 failures.
“People read the report and are like, ‘What should we do?’ And it’s like ‘well, shit, here’s a clear example,’” Kerr told POLITICO, about supporting McAdams.
Here’s a link to the full article.
