Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
But it’s usually the best clue we’ve got.
Ben McAdams is a superstar.
He needs to run again, and is publicly considering it. Make your voice heard by contributing to his campaign account, and follow him on Twitter & Facebook.
Redistricting in Utah
Welcome has been on the lookout for potential opportunities emerging from the mid-decade redistricting processes going on all over the country. Our speciality is harnessing volatility, and new district lines not only change the partisanship makeup of the electorate but reduce the power of incumbency.
The lines are not final in Utah, but the likeliest outcomes all point to a potentially winnable seat in the Salt Lake City area. And, while Democrats have lost 27 of the last 28 federal elections in Utah, the proven winner is eligible.
Top-1% Recruit
The Split-Ticket database has about 1,600 Democratic House candidates. Of the top twelve, just one was a challenger who flipped a seat: the last Democrat to win in Utah.
In 2018, Ben McAdams won a seat on the same ballot with a Democrat who lost the Senate race by 23 points in the same congressional district.
Let’s say that again: Mitt Romney won the congressional district by 23 points, and McAdams also won it. More than 1 in every 7 voters split their tickets for Romney and McAdams.
In 2020, McAdams followed that up with WAR of 15 with a WAR of 8, narrowly losing in a district that Trump won by more than 9%.
Both runs from McAdams were in the top-5% of all Democratic candidates. He is an outlier.
Depolarizing
American politics is chaotic.
Ben McAdams is a steady hand.
Is that depolarizing maturity helpful electorally? It is helpful that he was a Blue Dog and a New Dem?
We are involved in debates over the value of moderation and differentiation. In additional to more centrist policies, Democrats who win in red districts and Republicans who win in blue districts all seem to share a calmness. Maybe that’s how they get elected in the first place. Maybe that’s a byproduct of communities more likely to split their tickets.
Let’s leave those debates for another day. Ben McAdams has been a leader on depolarizing policies like fiscal responsibility. He has served in the state legislature, as Mayor of Salt Lake City, and one term in Congress. I can’t find any shirtless pictures of him online, but safe to say that he’s been vetted.
That doesn’t mean he’s ‘Establishment’ though - he has demonstrated a willingness to buck his party, staying true to his values and constituents even when it was hard. And they noticed: he was the most popular member of congress in his home state.
So, you’ve Decided to Win. Now it’s time to back winners. Make your voice heard by contributing to his campaign account, and follow him on Twitter & Facebook.
PS check out this POLITICO coverage on the need to ensure McAdams gets in