How Democrats Lost Black and Hispanic Voters

Dems’ problem isn’t in turning out the base — it’s keeping voters of color in the base.

It’s something Democrats once thought unthinkable: in 2024, they lost vote share among Black and Hispanic voters in an election where Trump was on the ballot.

But these losses in particular have been piling up since 2012: Democrats have lost support among every race and college cohort except for college-educated white voters.

It’s not as if Democrats haven’t prioritized equality. On the contrary, references to phrases like “racial justice” and “equity” have increased dramatically from the mouths of and policy platforms of Democratic elected officials and candidates.

Of the millions of Black and Hispanic voters participating in each election cycle, the majority of those voters are moderate and more akin to independent voters than to white liberals. It’s a reality I’ve been preaching to political folks for years, highlighting that minority men in particular are swing voters. This past election cycle, we saw that to be true.

Democrats have yet to fully grasp that Black and Hispanic voters aren’t liberal. As I wrote for Slow Boring two years ago:

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, Black voters are the racial demographic least likely to identify as “liberal.” Only 29% of Black Democrats call their ideology “liberal,” compared to 37% of their Hispanic counterparts and a whopping 55% of white Democrats and Dem-leaners (Pew Research). A plurality (43%) called themselves “moderate,” and one in four (25%) identified as “conservative.” In the aftermath of Rep. Jim Clyburn’s tide-shifting endorsement in the 2020 Democratic primary, a clear majority of Black voters in South Carolina (61%) voted for Joe Biden, elevating him over Far Left favorite Bernie Sanders and putting him on track to the White House.

For decades, many Black and Hispanic Americans voted with Democrats because of long-held traditions. But as the party kept moving further to the left, Black and Hispanic voters became increasingly alienated.

Take Black voters, which the media imagines to be a leftward force in the party: Even among Democrats and Democratic leaners, Black voters are moderate on many issues. Black Democratic voters are significantly more likely to express support for increasing the number of border patrols on the US-Mexico border (63%) than their white (47%) and Hispanic (50%) counterparts. In the 2024 American National Election Studies (ANES) data, white Democrats are more supportive of increasing immigration rates than Black and Hispanic Democrats.

Black and Hispanic voters are also skeptical of the Democratic Party’s shift to the left on social issues like transgender athletes and abortion. And as many know, many Hispanic voters are concerned about Democrats’ calls for socialism due to family histories fleeing socialist countries like Cuba and Venezuela.

On the issue of crime, Black and Hispanic voters are supportive of public safety and don’t want to be victimized by the types of violent crimes Democrats are deprioritizing. Black and Hispanic voters also make up population majorities in the border districts most affected by illegal immigration.

Taking a look at how the Democratic Party platform discusses economic opportunity is a good way to illustrate one way the party is alienating people of color — working class voters in particular.

2012:

We see an America with greater economic security and opportunity, driven by education, energy, innovation and infrastructure, and a tax code that helps to create American jobs and bring down the debt in a balanced way. We believe in deficit reduction not by placing the burden on the middle class and the poor, but by cutting out programs we can’t afford and asking the wealthiest to again contribute their fair share.

2024:

We are also working to connect communities that have been isolated from opportunity for too long. Highways and rail lines have disproportionately torn through Black, Latino, and low-income areas; displacing and segregating residents and businesses; stifling economic growth and investment; and cutting people off from groceries, jobs, and health care. Through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, we are righting those historic wrongs by investing in new roads, bridges, railways, and public transit and more,

The 2012 Democratic Party platform weaves deficit reduction into opportunity. The 2024 Democratic Party platform disconnects with voters by talking about literally building bridges.

It’s no surprise that many of the most moderate Democrats in the House are border state Members like Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, and Trump-won district Members like Rep. Don Davis.

If Democrats Decide to Win, they need to understand that Black and Hispanic voters are not progressive activists; they’re the moderate and conservative voters who want to feel a sense of belonging in the Party that claims to represent their interests.