Kamala is Moderate: Weekly Digest

Sept. 23-28

Hello, folks! A lite version of the digest this week, but substantive nonetheless!

HARRIS TO THE BORDER

The central premise of Kamala is Moderate is to illustrate how Harris navigates the chasm between her true moderate self (which appeals to the persuadable voters needed to win) and the far-left positions she briefly adopted during the 2020 presidential primary (which are unpopular).

This past week, Harris visited the US-Mexico border, contrasting her tough, pragmatic stance on immigration with Trump's scuttling of a border deal earlier this year. We’ve noted Harris’ pivot to the center on immigration is a "True Strength" for the Harris campaign. Over the weekend, NBC’s Sahil Kapur tweeted his story on Harris’ border visit and a notable comment on that pivot:

Immigration is a top concern for swing voters, who overwhelmingly prefer Republicans on the issue. Harris’ first campaign ad focused on the border with many thanks to Senator Chris Murphy, whose courageous leadership on the issue has given Democrats the political (and moral) high ground: Democrats are actually working to solve the immigration problem, while Trump's opposition to bipartisan compromise shows MAGA's inability to solve problems. Leading centrist think tank Third Way has a good rundown of what voters want from Harris on the border (spoiler: it looks a lot like what she's doing).

But Harris hasn't escaped every leftist policy ghost of (2020’s) presidential primary past, and Republicans have a simple message on her 2024 pivot, like this one from Rep. Matt Gaetz:

BIDEN-HARRIS EVENT TO END GUN VIOLENCE

Last Thursday at the White House, President Biden and Vice President Harris co-hosted an event focused on their Administration’s efforts to end gun violence in America. CNN reported:

Harris leaned into the rights and freedom message that’s been a part of her campaign trail rhetoric.

“I believe the right to be safe is a civil right,” Harris told the room. “And that the people of America have a right then to live, work, worship and learn without fear of violence, including gun violence. And yet, our nation is experiencing an epidemic of gun violence.”

The Democratic nominee, who has acknowledged being a gun owner, criticized what she called a “false choice” between preventing further carnage and respecting the Second Amendment.

Harris later added: “I am in favor of the Second Amendment, and I believe we need to reinstate the assault weapons ban, and have universal background checks, safe storage laws and red flag laws.”

Biden touted measures his administration has taken — including 2022’s Bipartisan Safer Communities Act and $15 billion in funding from the American Rescue Plan to surge funding for law enforcement communities — and pointed at Harris.

Yet to be determined is how many gun-toting swing voters in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Harris will be able to woo by calling for an assault weapons ban.

LAW ENFORCEMENT ORG ENDORSEMENT

Last week, FOX News reported that Police Leaders for Community Safety, a “diverse group of prominent police professionals who have been at the helm of numerous major national law enforcement leadership groups,” announced its endorsement of Harris in this year’s presidential election.

Further:

"This endorsement reflects Vice President Harris’ track record and unwavering commitment to public safety and the rule of law," Sue Riseling, chair of Police Leaders for Community Safety, said.

Police Leaders for Community Safety board member David Mahoney, a former Dane County, Wisconsin, sheriff and past president of the National Sheriffs’ Association, said that Harris "spent her prosecutorial career protecting people, supporting victims and holding accountable those who have harmed others and betrayed the public trust. As a lawmaker, she has fought hard for the critical law enforcement-backed policies needed to fight crime and protect the public."

Additionally, Board Vice Chair Rick Myers, a former police chief in eight communities in multiple states, said that "too many politicians call themselves tough on crime and say they support law enforcement but then don’t have the courage to do what is right to keep us safe…We need a leader who will protect both the 2nd Amendment and our nation from the scourge of gun violence, and that leader is Kamala Harris." 

BLUEPRINT ON SWING, MALE VOTERS (NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH MALE SWING VOTERS)

Last week, polling firm Blueprint released two significant polls. The first on swing voters, and the second on male voters.

On swing voters, they found:

1. Swing state voters are ideologically eclectic: They hold conservative views on immigration and crime but are pro-choice and favor government action to control corporate excesses, particularly on prices. They reward pragmatic populist positions rather than strict ideological consistency.

1. Swing state voters favor policies that punish corporate bad actors but are skeptical of government overreach and sweeping systemic change rhetoric. They don’t think in terms of the size of government or companies, but judge by effectiveness and actions.

2. Harris’s opportunity lies in balancing fiscal conservatism with populist price-focused economic policies. While swing state voters tend to be deficit hawks, policies like cracking down on price gouging are widely popular. 

Swing state voters represent a mosaic of political views, rewarding candidates who embrace pragmatic populist policies that directly address their daily concerns. A Democratic recipe for success in this electoral environment moderates on immigration and crime and embraces popular pro-choice and anti-price gouging positions while foregrounding  targeted interventions that swing state voters believe might actually improve their lives over sweeping systemic change rhetoric.  

Ideological Heterodoxy in the Swing States

Swing states swing for a reason: their voters hold heterodox political views, blending traditionally conservative positions on issues like immigration and crime with liberal views on reproductive rights and corporate regulation. 

• 55% of swing state voters say immigration should be decreased (including 49% of independents, 35% of Democrats, and 58% of non-college voters). Just 19% say it should be kept at its present level and 14% say it should be increased. 

• 57% of swing state voters say our criminal justice system is not tough enough (including 44% of Democrats and 43% of independents). 21% say it’s about right, and just 10% say it’s too tough. 

• 52% of swing state voters identify as pro-choice, including 46% of independents. 39% identify as pro-life, including 34% of independents. 

• When asked to choose between two approaches to lowering the cost of living, 64% of swing state voters favor cracking down on price gouging by harshly penalizing big businesses that unfairly jack up prices and coordinate to increase costs, while only 23% say “Soviet-style price controls will only make inflation worse” and that the government cut regulations and reduce spending rather than attacking businesses.

And on male voters, they found:

• A significantly higher share of men than women believe that cancel culture is real, but the majority of men do not hold extreme views on culture war issues and gender-related matters, nor do they prioritize those issues.

• The most important issues to male voters are concrete: the economy and prices, Social Security and Medicare, lower taxes on income and capital gains, national security, and affordability; the least important issues to them are more abstract: cryptocurrency, transgender issues, and feminism.

• Men trust Vice President Kamala Harris more on abortion, climate change, the environment, and transgender issues; but men trust former President Donald Trump more on inflation, business regulations, national security, foreign policy, and immigration—with immigration the issue on which men trust Trump the most compared to Harris.

• Men, in general, are less progressive than women and are more likely to believe that Democrats are ideologically extreme, particularly regarding immigration, the economy, and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). However, recent political issues often framed as priorities for men are of low salience to them compared to other topics. For instance, cryptocurrency policy and transgender and LGBTQ+ issues are of particularly low importance relative to more traditional political matters. Conventional, longstanding issues in the political arena—such as the economy, Social Security and Medicare, taxes, and the military—are more salient to male voters.

• Men do not agree with the most extreme statements on gender and sexuality, such as the idea that most sexual assault allegations are false or that society has gone too far in accommodating women. The conservative—but not retrograde—views of male voters are most evident in the survey data on their policy priorities, which problems they view as legitimate problems, and their opinions on various celebrities.

• Additionally, Vice President Kamala Harris’s vulnerabilities among men are on immigration, the economy, inflation, national security, and taxes. However, men trust her more than former President Donald Trump on transgender issues and abortion, suggesting that a message focusing on foundational political issues rather than one that engaging with the latest male-dominated debates would be most effective in winning them over.

• While women see the Republican Party as becoming more extreme (42% Republicans more extreme vs. 30% Democrats), men see Democrats as becoming more extreme than Republicans (38% Democrats, 34% Republicans).  Men also agree with the critique that the Democratic Party “Has moved too far to the left” (55%, 31%, +24).