Kamala is Moderate: Weekly Digest

Sept. 9-13, featuring partners' Center Right wishlists.

Hi, guys! A lot to unpack from this past week.

Last Sunday, a New York Times/Siena poll suggested that Harris’ honeymoon in the race is over: Trump has a slight lead, and, most notably, 44% of voters view Harris as too liberal or progressive. Liam covered this in-depth on Monday, and it appeared that the Harris team understood the assignment: Harris’ sentiments on fracking were:

I made that very clear in 2020. I will not ban fracking. I have not banned fracking as Vice President of the United States. And, in fact, I was the tie-breaking vote on the Inflation Reduction Act, which opened new leases for fracking. My position is that we have got to invest in diverse sources of energy so we reduce our reliance on foreign oil. We have had the largest increase in domestic oil production in history because of an approach that recognizes that we cannot over rely on foreign oil.

This week, we’ll dig into what that 44% in the Times poll may be thinking about and, more importantly, what they want to hear of the Harris-Walz campaign.

Our friends at Galvanize Action and Haley Voters for Harris focus on moderate women and Center Right voters respectively, many of whom are persuadable and considering joining the Harris coalition this November.

What are their audiences looking for as they finalize their decisions for November’s election?

Galvanize Action has found that the following messages are most helpful when trying to reach ideologically-moderate women.

Economy: This is the top concern for moderate white women and will heavily influence their vote in November. Demonstrating support for working families like theirs is an effective strategy with this audience.

Reproductive Freedom: While 75% of moderate white women consider this issue important, it’s not their main voting driver. Galvanize Action increases the saliency of this issue with their audience and motivates them by highlighting the full range of rights that are on the line, like miscarriage care and IVF.

Culture Wars: Moderate white women are often targeted with grievance-based narratives on gender equity, immigration, and crime. Galvanize Action uses values-based messages to counter these negative narratives and shore up their audience's defenses against disinformation.

Democracy: They also aim to tangibly define democracy for their audience, frame what’s at stake, build agency and power for voting this year, and increase trust in our election systems.

Haley Voters for Harris has an actual wishlist of policy priorities, including one that has already been accomplished: Harris committing to nominating a Republican to her Cabinet.

Border Security:  Our working group strongly endorsed the June 4 Biden-Harris Executive Order to secure the border and we are pleased that border crossings have significantly reduced since then.  It was a common-sense policy solution.  We also believe the bipartisan border security bill was critical legislation and are disappointed that former President Trump blocked the bill for political reasons.  We ask that VP Harris fully embrace the Executive Order and commit to prioritizing bipartisan legislation to secure the border once elected.  

Fiscal Responsibility:  Both Republican and Democratic administrations have been fiscally irresponsible. We respectfully ask that Vice President Harris - while fully protecting Social Security and Medicare for those that have paid into the system - express openness to discussing our long-term fiscal health in a way that does not negatively impact the middle-class or anyone who has already entered or retired from the workforce. We respectfully ask for her to release a plan to reduce the national debt without increasing taxes on the middle class or small businesses.

Energy Production:  The Harris campaign should commit to not just being “energy independent” but “energy dominant.” We recognize that this is already happening in reality with all forms of energy production reaching record highs.  We believe that energy dominance makes us stronger at home and abroad. The Biden-Harris campaign told us there was no “EV mandate” so we would appreciate the Harris campaign better explaining its policies on EVs - please tell everyday Americans you will not take away their gas-powered vehicles! Any new international climate agreement should dramatically raise the commitments from India and China.

Reproductive Rights/Religious Freedom: We understand that VP Harris will continue to strongly and publicly fight to preserve the reproductive rights of women and fight against any effort to ban IVF. We welcome efforts to protect the right of women to freely travel in between states. Women should never be fined or punished for their decisions. At the same time, we ask that VP Harris commit to enforce existing laws stating that doctors and nurses receiving government funding should not be forced to perform an abortion if they have religious or ethical exceptions/concerns. We ask VP Harris to commit to maintaining a cultural tolerance for religious freedom and disavow any cultural or legal attempt to reduce the influence of conservative churches.  

Gun Violence: We were appalled by the assassination attempt on former President Trump and the endless cycle of school shootings that have taken place. We applaud reasonable legislation like the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. We ask, however, that you express your firm commitment to upholding Second Amendment rights.  We encourage you to assure law-abiding gun owners that they have no reason to worry about their guns being taken away. 

Additionally, the ultimate Center Right guru

Sarah Longwell

wrote about the Times poll in

The Bulwark

on Monday:

This poll may have surprised some Democrats and sent them into panic. It shouldn’t have. I’ve conducted nearly a dozen focus groups with swing and persuadable voters since Harris became the nominee and in those conversations it’s been clear that the fact remains that the VP has work to do with these folks. More than that, if you look at the numbers and talk to these people, it’s evident that Harris has room to win them over; Trump far less so. Let me explain.

HARRIS DESERVES REAL CREDIT for the speed and alacrity with which she jumpstarted a disconsolate Democratic coalition. But ultimately this feat simply reverted the election to its mean: Fired up Dems versus fired up Republicans with a margin-making handful of low-information voters and Independents who need to be convinced to make an affirmative decision for one of the two major candidates. 

And those voters don’t feel like they know enough about Kamala Harris to feel comfortable voting for her. (Yet.) Here’s a sampling of thoughts from people who either voted for Trump and then Biden (flippers) or voted for Clinton and Biden, but are still undecided on Harris:

“I feel like I just don’t know enough about her, like, as a candidate. Yes, she’s our VP, but just like, kind of been on the side in my mind, right?” —Jessica, GA flipper

“I cannot tell you one thing that I can be like, ‘Oh yeah, she was a really good vice president.’ [...] “Not to even put any apples in Trump’s cart, but I can at least say that he did something. I mean, it wasn’t the best thing, but he did something.” [...] “If you think about Obama’s wife, I mean, at least she did some things. I mean, this is his wife. At least she was visible.” [...] “It’s scary to put your hope and faith in somebody who hasn't done anything.” —Michele, GA flipper

“I'm kind of like, disappointed, because I don’t see a lot of change in what [Biden] said he was going to do versus where we’re at now.” [...] “I have to dig deep more into Kamala Harris’ background.” —Cristal, undecided Clinton-Biden voter from CA

“I don’t think she was a very strong pick because of the fact that we really haven’t seen a whole lot about her. And in my world, whatever I have heard about her has been negative. Not that I’ve paid attention, you know, either way. I don't think there’s been … she’s had the opportunity to shine at all, and she’s up against Trump, who fights dirty, nasty, disgusting, it's going to be a really hard uphill battle for her.” —Jessica, undecided Clinton-Biden voter from PA

“We didn’t really get a say in, I guess, like us selecting her to run, and also, I mean, yeah, she worked alongside with Biden, and she’s great,” [Note: The tepid inflection here suggested more "she's fine."] . . . “I guess I just need to, like, know more about her and whether she’s a good representation for the Democratic party.” —Ajanta, MI Flipper

“If they could, like, give me some serious policies, show me some serious plans, then I could seriously get behind it. But right now, I just feel like they’re trying to almost manipulate me with positive energy to vote away. So I’m trying very much to not get sprinkled with the fairy dust. I’m trying to keep my eyes open, like I feel like most of my family’s like ‘it just feels so good.’ And I sometimes feel like Democrats can be emotional voters.” —Kimberly, GA Flipper

THE GREAT DEBATE

Harris and Trump’s debate on Tuesday was historic. Not only was it the first time the two had met in person, but it offered America a depth of insight into who their choices are in relation to each other.

Harris kept her big-tent energy that night, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that she may have done so with too much theatrics. One piece of constructive feedback for Harris would be to let Trump remain the actor/entertainer — her tendency to lean into orchestrated, scripted, and somewhat dramatic delivery remains unpalatable. Recent cultural norms that have lauded pettiness remain incredibly off-putting to a lot of Americans, particularly those who already view all politicians as out-of-touch elites. This country needs principled leadership that doesn’t fuel polarization.

Let’s get into Harris’ moderate highlights.

On immigration:

“So I'm the only person on this stage who has prosecuted transnational criminal organizations for the trafficking of guns, drugs, and human beings. And let me say that the United StatesCongress, including some of the most conservative members of the United States Senate, came up with a border security bill which I supported. And that bill would have put 1,500 more border agents on the border to help those folks who are working there right now over time trying to do their job. It would have allowed us to stem the flow of fentanyl coming into the United States. I know there are so many families watching tonight who have been personally affected by the surge of fentanyl in our country. That bill would have put more resources to allow us to prosecute transnational criminal organizations for trafficking in guns, drugs and human beings. But you know what happened to that bill? Donald Trump got on the phone, called up some folks in Congress, and said kill the bill. And you know why? Because he preferred to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem. And understand, this comes at a time where the people of our country actually need a leader who engages in solutions, who actually addresses the problems at hand. But what we have in the former president is someone who would prefer to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem.”

On bipartisan support:

“I think one of the reasons why in this election I actually have the endorsement of 200 Republicans who have formally worked with President Bush, Mitt Romney, and John McCain including the endorsement of former Vice President Dick Cheney and Congressmember Liz Cheney.”

On guns:

"Tim Walz and I are both gun owners. We're not taking anybody's guns away. So stop with the continuous lying about this stuff." 

On energy:

"We have invested a trillion dollars in a clean energy economy while we have also increased domestic gas production to historic levels." 

On healthcare:

"I absolutely support and over the last four years as vice president private health care options. But what we need to do is maintain and grow the Affordable Care Act."

Jonathan V. Last at

The Bulwark

wrote this about Harris’ debate performance:

Harris has positioned herself as a centrist, Biden Democrat. From the opening question, Harris talked about her support for family formation (a big conservative talking point) and her recognition of the importance of small-businesses (a key Republican constituency). She emphasized her plan for tax cuts. She was hawkish on Russia and China. She offered an unwavering commitment to Israel. She noted that she and her running mate are both gun owners. She talked about the importance of supporting law enforcement and making the criminal justice system work. She is in favor of the strictest border control bill ever passed by the Senate. I’m not sure what else moderate voters could ask from her. If someone doesn’t believe in or trust Harris, that’s fine and they can say so. But don’t pretend that she’s running as something she’s not. Harris has positioned her candidacy in the dead center of American politics.

The Washington Post reported on Harris debate performance responses from Republicans:

It was clear in the debate that Vice President Kamala Harris’ goal was to get under Donald Trump’s skin. But less obvious were the ways in which she was trying to appeal to independent and disenchanted Republican voters. “I pledge to you to be a president for all Americans,” Harris said less than five minutes into the debate…Harris’ debate strategy wasn’t missed by some of the most prominent never-Trumpers. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who voted twice to impeach Trump and said he will not vote for Trump in November, took notice. He praised Harris’ debate performance, telling reporters that people saw an “intelligent, capable person.” Romney would not commit to endorsing Harris, though. “I’ve got nothing to add,” he told us.

Republican organizers backing Harris estimate that most of the Republican voters who supported Haley will end up voting for Trump. But they are hoping to get as much as 25 percent of Haley’s voters in swing states, which they argue could be significant in what is expected to be a tight election decided by a handful of states. Former Republican Rep. Joe Walsh (Ill.) has been traveling to battleground states to meet with pro-Harris Republican voter groups that have sprung up in each of the key states, encouraging them to persuade their Republican friends to also vote for Harris. He attended a debate watch party with Republican Harris supporters in the swing state of Arizona and said that ahead of the debate people were unsure how she would perform. Republican voters’ biggest concern is not about policy differences but if Harris is up to the job, according to Walsh. “Based on a lot of messages, she passed that test,” Walsh said. The Harris campaign has had three meetings with Haley voters, who expressed concern about some of her economic policies, including her support for a ban on price gouging in the food industry and her push to increase capital gains taxes. Robert Schwartz, a senior adviser for Haley Voters for Harris, said there was “a lot to appreciate” with Harris’ performance. He said Haley voters he is working with liked her position on Ukraine and foreign policy and that she clarified some of her previous positions, such as her support for private health insurance and fracking. But some in his group still have concerns, Schwartz said, including that Harris didn’t fully reject defunding the police. He said they have been told by the campaign that she supports the hiring of an extra 100,000 police officers. He wishes she would have spoken to that. Still, Harris is trying to contrast her bipartisan outreach to Trump, who plays to his base and threatens to jail his political opponents. “If we can convince 10,000 Republicans, that will make a difference,” Walsh said.

BLUEPRINT POLL OF BATTLEGROUND STATE SWING VOTERS

Blueprint released robust new polling this past week on where Harris stands with voters in the swing states of Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.

When it comes to the issues that swing state voters prioritize the most (jobs and the economy,  inflation, Social Security and Medicare, healthcare, immigration, corruption, and the border), Harris enjoys her largest trust advantages on healthcare and Social Security and Medicare, while Trump retains clear advantages on immigration and the border. But among swing state independents, Harris has an advantage on every single issue except the border, immigration, and oil and gas exploration—including trust advantages over Trump on inflation and the economy.  

The policy proposals that test best in the swing states are those aimed at bringing down food and prescription costs, cracking down on drug traffickers, and reducing the deficit. 

When it comes to messages that Harris can deliver at the debate, our poll indicates that Harris should press her strength on Social Security and Medicare, hone in on her pledges to reduce costs, particularly on food and healthcare, and highlight her record of and commitment to taking on bad corporate actors.

Further:

Harris has a net favorability rating of -2 (49% favorable, 51% unfavorable) compared to Donald Trump’s -6 (46% favorable, 52% unfavorable). But with independent swing state voters, the contrast is more striking: Harris is at -1 (46% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Trump is at -30 (34% favorable, 63% unfavorable).

Harris’ net favorability is +70 with Black swing state voters, +27 with Latino swing state voters, +11 with younger (aged 18-44) swing state voters, and +10 with women swing state voters. She’s at -18 with white swing state voters and -16 with male swing state voters.

Breaking it down by region: in the Rust Belt, Harris is at -2 (48% favorable, 50% unfavorable) favorability and -1 (49% favorable, 50% unfavorable) in the Sun Belt. Trump, meanwhile, is at +1 (50% favorable, 49% unfavorable) in the Rust Belt but -10 (44% favorable, 54% unfavorable) in the Sun Belt.

40% of swing state voters have a favorable view of JD Vance, and 44% have an unfavorable view, leaving him at -4 net; he sinks to -24 among independents (25% favorable, 49% unfavorable). In the Rust Belt, Vance’s favorability is at -7; it’s -3 in the Sun Belt.

Tim Walz is the most popular candidate in the swing states, both with voters overall (+2; 43% favorable, 41% unfavorable) and independents (+3; 38% favorable, 35% unfavorable). He’s at +5 in the Rust Belt and +1 in the Sun Belt.

Blueprint also conducted a snap poll after the debate, finding:

 45% of voters who watched the debate are now more likely to support Kamala Harris after the debate, with 39% much more likely. Only 31% say they are more likely to support Trump. Among independents, 37% are more likely to back Harris compared to 26% for Trump.

 56% of debate viewers believe Kamala Harris won, including 50% of independents. Just 28% of independents think Trump won, a significant win for team Harris. 

 Harris' positive messaging outshines anti-Trump attacks,with messages focused on values, healthcare, freedom, and unity performing especially well with independents and persuadable voters.

Harris’ contrasts with Trump that resonate are those that are the least anti-Trump and rather pivot to Kamala Harris’ unique vision and plan for America—highlighting the desire for voters to learn more about her.