Let Biden Be Biden

The competitive, polarized electorate has an opening for a leader who differentiates from both extremes

Is a transformational victory possible for an American presidential candidate?

As Yascha Mounk recently wrote in “You’re Thinking About Polarization All Wrong,” the fluidity of American politics is vastly underrated - disguised by a combination of polarization and competitiveness - and makes this ripe ground for a presidential candidate to pick up the moveable middle.

… when a country’s politics is competitive yet fluid, as is now the case in the United States, such a paradigm shift is much more feasible. A candidate simply needs to pitch a sufficiently broad tent—an ambitious feat, to be sure, but one that the most important political figures of the past have repeatedly proved capable of accomplishing.

The Trump-Biden rematch is unlikely to yield a landslide in either direction. But a more aggressive differentiation with the extremes of both sides could yield Biden a significant bloc in the center.

Joe Biden sparred with the far right to great effect during the State of the Union. The next day, the Biden Administration admitted it should be doing more to demonstrate distance from the progressive left. 

The Bulwark Podcast’s Tim Miller teed up that question to White House Communications Director Ben LaBolt: “There’s a frustration that the White House is not making a more deliberate case about the ways in which this administration has distanced themselves from the progressive left.”

Such distance from the far left was key in 2020, and will be again in 2024. Independent voters are the most important factor in the presidential election, and one poll showed Biden swung this malleable group during his State of the Union, with polling showing a 17-point jump in support after a performance that featured jocular back and forth with heckling Republicans.

Biden’s Communications Director echoed this on the pod, noting that the White House “makes elements of” the pitch that Biden has distance from the far left. And, on issues like energy production, the head of White House communications said “things like that we probably could be talking more about.”

You know who distances himself from the left quite naturally? Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr.

There is a debate among pundits over whether the presidential re-election campaign should “Let Biden Be Biden.” That is, allow him the freedom to make gaffes. Those supposed gaffes are often in a conservative direction, such as ad libbing “illegals” during the State of the Union or opposing “abortion on demand” at a fundraiser.

Biden has often said “don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative”. That is more true than ever this election, where Biden would lose a referendum and must make this a start choice between normalcy and MAGA. 

But the choice between mainstream and extreme is not just Biden versus Trump. It is also Biden versus the extremists in his own party, who repel swing voters on both policy and personality.

Much of the focus has been on the lack of formal press conferences and interviews. But there’s another forum in which Biden being his jocular, moderate self could pay dividends: when he is protested by progressive activists.

NBC reported recently that the Democratic presidential campaign is avoiding college campuses due to the fear of protests.

This jells with the theory proposed by Josh Barro: voter concerns over Biden’s age are mostly not about his literal age (younger Democrats poll the same Biden in a matchup versus Trump). Voters are worried that Biden is not in charge, that he’s not strong. The State of the Union address was effective not only because he was vigorous, but because he gained the upper hand in a debate against his adversaries. That is a powerful opportunity for a moderate politician, the chance to contrast with extremist opponents. Speaker Mike Johnson pleaded with his caucus not to give Biden such an opportunity, but to no avail - Marjorie Taylor Greene and Derrick Van Orden could not be contained, and gave Biden the perfect foil.

That is not to say Biden would be a debate champion. But in that setting, he didn’t have to be. There’s an old saying about the press, “never pick a fight with someone who buys ink by the barrel.” The same could be said for a microphone, as anyone who’s had too many beverages at a comedy club may recall. The person on stage with the microphone and perfect background has an inherent advantage over the heckler.

The relative power between the President of the United States and a random heckler has, on the left, been exploited to the advantage of the extremist disruptors. The asymmetry is clear: while an elected official can pay a significant price for a misstep, the rabble rouser has nothing to lose, and notoriety to gain. Just look at the recent viral clip of a professional activist hurling abuse at Joe Manchin - the clip has more than 10m views, and the organization got significant press attention (something they explicitly tout as their key metric for success).

To date, the Biden campaign has avoided such interactions - even at the expense of avoiding college campuses, a traditional campaign rally stop for Democrats.

His performance at the State of the Union should remind his team that Biden can persuade independents, and that he can excel in a raucous format against extremist attention-seekers. To win in November, Biden needs to demonstrate that he is a better alternative to both the MAGA right and the out-of-touch left. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Derrick Van Orden gave him a fight Biden can win. Activists on climate and Gaza are trying to give Biden a fight he can win, and Independent voters would be served well if Biden gave it to them.

It may not be a transformational victory, but it would speak to the volatility in the electorate that is yearning to be harnessed into a broad coalition.