Look Down Ballot
Winning the middle with smart investments
Let’s take a break from stressful political news to discuss the tragicomedy of the commons presented by political fundraising texts that come at the end of each quarter.1
There are many problems with it, which we broke down last year in Interrupting the Rage Cycle. One major problem is that Democrats get overwhelmed with incoming requests, many of them for famous Republicans who will spur an emotion that results in a contribution. Here’s what Welcome co-founder Lauren Harper Pope told CNN about the problem:
“We get so caught up on the super villains that we don’t focus on the villains,” said Lauren Harper, the co-founder of Welcome PAC, a group that has tracked this pattern and works to expand the reach of the Democratic Party.
Unfortunately, hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent by Republicans to defend those “regular villains.” Democrats getting fired up is fine, as long as the result is in the direction that can have an impact. That’s why our team has built the WelcomePAC Win The Middle slate to identify the most important House candidates you can give to directly, without campaigns spending money (and your sanity) on text messages.
GOP Cash Coming For Our Outliers
This week a Politico story headlined “Here’s where the House GOP is spending this fall” was accompanied by an image of Jared Golden in a suit, a sure sign that WelcomePAC’s Win The Middle incumbents would be prioritized for Republicans. The article confirms:
… more than a quarter of the total spending will be marshaled against the five Democrats in districts that then-President Donald Trump won in 2020: Reps. Jared Golden in Maine, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington state, Mary Peltola in Alaska, Marcy Kaptur in Ohio and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania.
We have featured Golden (ME-2), Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03), and Peltola (AK-AL) as outliers who win over Trump voters, then govern distinctively to make Democrats more popular. They aren’t just more vulnerable electorally in a presidential year. These Blue Dog co-chairs are kryptonite to right-wing claims that all Democrats are extremists.
Centrist Stars On Offense vs. MAGA
It’s not just incumbents who need defending. Democrats still need to pick up four seats to take back the House. Here’s what Welcome co-founder Lauren Harper Pope told the Washington Post about which MAGA incumbents to pick:
Lauren Harper, a co-founder of the Welcome PAC, an organization that promotes a “big-tent” Democratic Party, said Democrats should train resources on competitive races. “We can’t just focus our energy on the people who are driving us bananas,” she said. “It’s a matter of us not using our money as wisely as we could.”
CA-41 Will Rollins is facing off against an extreme MAGA incumbent who has literally run from the cops. The pinned tweet on his profile starts with his launch video, stating “My grandparents were Republicans. The party they believed in no longer exists. Help us build a big tent coalition.”
His next video is from MSNBC last week, where he touts the endorsement from the former Republican leader in the California legislature. That’s how you Win The Middle.
NY-01 John Avlon’s primary victory last week represented a centrist insurgency worth $20 million. He earned more than 70% of the primary vote despite facing the former nominee in the district who spent roughly equally. Check out his election night victory speech calling in center-right voters.
WI-03 Rebecca Cooke released a poll showing her in a tight race with January 6th participant Derrick Van Orden - and then pulling ahead of once voters learn more about Cook’s compelling biography and positions.
GOP In Disarray
CO-03 Adam Frisch learned he will face off against Jeff Hurd. The Republican won a six way primary with just 41% of the vote. A fractious GOP primary last cycle helped Frisch consolidate the middle and force a recount against Lauren Boebert - and then her relocation to another district.
PA-10 Janelle Stelson continued the momentum earning center-right voters you saw recently on PBS NewsHour. Her opponent, former House Freedom Caucus Chair and investigation subject Scott Perry, shared an anti-semitic meme on his campaign’s Facebook page and only took it down after being contacted by journalists at Jewish Insider. Perry also got attention for his lie-filled exchange with Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
To effectively fight back down ballot, contribute through the WelcomePAC Win The Middle slate here.
Well, they come constantly but June 30 is an actual honest-to-FEC deadline