Memo: Democratic Primary Voters Want Open Convention
To: Interested Parties
From: Jason Boxt - Senior Research Advisor, PFP Research and 3W Insights
Date: July 20, 2024
RE: Polling of Democratic Primary Voters on Biden Decision and Nominating Process
Summary
Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly favor Biden withdrawing from the race and want an open convention to choose the next nominee. They prioritize electability over all other factors, favor more openness and competitiveness in a nomination process, view a convention with more excitement than anxiety, and view a nominee selected by delegates as most legitimate.
Delegates Viewed Favorably
63% of Democratic primary voters say they would prefer that delegates choose who they think is more likely to beat President Trump compared to 30% who say they prefer that Joe Biden is the nominee. This figure is almost identical among those who voted for Joe Biden in the 2024 Democratic primary, 60-33.
If Joe Biden ends his re-election campaign, Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly favor a competitive open convention and a campaign. When asked to pick between an open convention and immediately giving the nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris, 51% of Democratic Primary voters want the open convention compared to 32% who favor the nomination going directly to Harris. In the event that Harris is the next Democratic nominee, an even larger majority supports her selection after other candidates are considered (63%) compared to Biden directing the nomination to her (25%).
Priority Clear
When asked to choose what qualities they want in the next nominee, Democratic primary voters were more than three times as likely (77%) to say they wanted a nominee who is likely to beat Donald Trump than the second most desired quality (24% for “experience”).
Legitimacy
As the specifics of a nominating process come into public awareness, it is clear that Democratic voters prefer more openness and engagement offered by delegates. Overall, Democratic primary voters believe any outcome of the process would be legitimate.
If Joe Biden drops out of the race, Democratic primary voters say a nominee chosen by the convention is legitimate 78-6. Even if an outcome is specified, voters overwhelmingly believe the nomination would be legitimate. If delegates choose another nominee over Harris for electability, Democratic primary voters say the outcome would be legitimate 72-13. If Harris is chosen without an open convention, Democratic primary voters say it would be legitimate by a narrower 64-17 margin. When forced to choose, Democratic primary voters think it would be more Democratic and legitimate to have an open convention over immediately giving the nomination to Harris 57-30. Any way the process plays out, Democrats are prepared to accept results.
While Black Democratic primary voters are more supportive of Harris getting the nomination over an open convention (58-30), they would still consider the results where delegates choose a different nominee legitimate (49-32) and would be overwhelmingly likely to do so if Harris and Biden endorse the eventual nominee (64-17).
When asked who should choose Biden's replacement if he withdraws, just one in five (20%) Democratic primary voters would want Democratic National Committee members making that choice (compared to 37% for the delegates).
Convention Brings More Excitement Than Anxiety
When asked, more Democratic primary voters are excited (53%) than anxious (39%) about the prospect of an open convention. 60% of primary voters believe an open convention would lead to a more electable nominee compared to just 24% who believed it would lead to disunity. Democrats also say they would be energized by an open convention, with 46% saying an open convention would make them more likely to vote compared to 30% saying selecting Harris immediately would make them more likely to vote.
Part of the reason Democrats are excited about the prospect of an open convention might be that they’re generally unsure who they want the nominee to be. When asked, 36% said they would prefer Harris as the nominee compared to 36% who said they wanted a Senator or Governor to be the nominee. Unsurprisingly, 74% wanted debates to choose the next nominee compared to 14% who wanted to skip it. Democrats might be down to skip the process if they were all decided, but with so much uncertainty, they want all the information they can get.
Methodology:
We surveyed 2,048 Democratic Primary Voters from July 18 to July 19. Interviews were conducted via text-to-web. The survey was weighted to be representative of likely primary voters by age, race, education, and gender.
About Welcome
Welcome launched to grow the Democratic Party by engaging less ideological, less partisan voters and conducting research demonstrating why a big-tent party is both a reality and a necessity.
CONTACT
Lauren Harper Pope - lauren@welcomepac.org
Jason Boxt - jason@why3wi.com