Memo: Democratic Voter Priorities
Don’t fear the process: Democrats want an open convention and to defeat Trump.
To: Interested Parties
From: Jason Boxt - Senior Research Advisor, PFP Research and 3W Insights
Date: July 9, 2024
RE: Don’t fear the process: Democrats want an open convention and to defeat Trump
Summary
With rampant speculation about potential changes to the Democratic presidential nomination process, Welcome undertook research to understand how Democratic primary voters perceive their options.
This survey and subsequent analysis was designed both to educate stakeholders on the current views of the electorate and offer questions for potential future research.
Democrats want an open replacement process
In the midst of a robust public debate over whether President Biden remains the Democratic nominee, our survey reveals a clear preference among Democratic primary voters: They favor allowing convention delegates to select a new nominee they believe to be electable over President Biden remaining on the ballot by a solid 55-40 margin.
And in the event he does step down, Democratic primary voters prefer an open convention process to just handing the ballot spot to Vice President Kamala Harris by an overwhelming 64-28 margin. By a 73-17 margin, they believe there should be presidential debates when selecting the next nominee. Furthermore, by a 71-19 margin, Democratic primary voters favor a vote by convention delegates to choose the next nominee over Joe Biden choosing the replacement himself.
Democratic primary voters overwhelmingly believe the results of this process would be legitimate. Nearly nine in ten (87%) say that if Joe Biden were to drop out, another nominee chosen by the delegates to the Democratic National Convention would be legitimate, compared to just 2% who would consider such a nominee illegitimate.
Democrats prioritize electability
Without question, Democratic primary voters make it clear that they prioritize electability in the next nominee over all else. We asked them to select which two of several attributes they most prioritized in a replacement nominee were Joe Biden to step down. The results are as follows:
Four in five Democratic primary voters want a candidate likely to beat Donald Trump, dramatically eclipsing all other attributes. Democratic primary voters choose this more than twice as often as the next cited priority, experience.
The bylaws in the Democratic National Convention State that “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” We expect this instruction to garner significant attention in the coming days and so asked Democratic primary voters what they thought this meant in the context of an open convention. By a 75-18 margin, Democratic primary voters said this meant that the delegates choose the candidate who most reflects the voters' desires to see a candidate who can defeat Donald Trump, compared to choosing whichever candidate has a current lead in the polls among Democrats.
Methodology
We surveyed 995 Democratic Primary Voters from July 3 to July 5. Interviews were conducted via web panel using the Lucid marketplace. The survey was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, race, education, gender, and vote history, and filtered for respondent attentiveness.
About Welcome
Welcome launched in 2019 as an effort to grow the Democratic Party by engaging less ideological, less partisan voters and conducting research demonstrating why a big-tent party is both a reality and a necessity.
Contact
Lauren Harper Pope, lauren@welcomepac.org
Jason Boxt, jason@why3wi.com