To: Interested Parties
From: Jason Boxt - Senior Research Advisor, PFP Research and 3W Insights
Date: July 21, 2024
RE: Testing Alternative Presidential Nominees
Summary
Our July 9 memo on alternative presidential nominees recognized the impending conversation on potential strengths and weaknesses of candidates in the case that President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign. That research sought to address known challenging in testing hypothetical matchups between candidates with varying levels of public awareness.
Since July 9, public polling has continued to show a consistent pattern in Democratic nominees against Donald Trump: Joe Biden losing, and Kamala Harris slightly better. Other polling - including our prior polls - show a similar pattern, and also show alternative nominees potentially beating Trump by several points.
As with prior memos, additional research is needed. One potential area of further research is testing via video and more in-depth interviews with persuadable voters.
Methodology
From July 14th through July 20th, we conducted a poll of 2411 likely voters using the Lucid online web panel marketplace. To ensure representativeness, we applied weighting based on key demographic factors including age, race, education level, gender, and voting history. This methodology aimed to capture an accurate snapshot of likely voter sentiments.
We ran head to head trial heat questions with Donald Trump using several Democratic candidates and biographies sourced from campaign materials. Biographies were presented for Donald Trump and for Democratic candidates. We forced respondents who were not sure between Trump/Biden/Third parties to select either Donald Trump or Joe Biden to better account for name recognition differences.
Results
When biographies of all candidates are presented, Donald Trump leads President Biden 47-45 and ties Kamala Harris 47-47. However, Donald Trump trails all other candidates tested by between one and seven points.
Michael Bennet leads Donald Trump 48-44, Tammy Duckworth 48-44, Joe Manchin 48-42, Tim Ryan 49-45, Steve Bullock 48-46, and Cory Booker 47-46.
BIOGRAPHIES
Donald Trump:
Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, describes himself as an outsider fighting against the political establishment. He advocates for an "America First" agenda, focusing on strict immigration policies, fair trade deals, domestic energy production, and conservative social values. Trump promises to revive the economy, strengthen law enforcement, and combat what he sees as censorship and corruption in government.
Joe Biden:
Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, is an experienced statesman with a long history of public service, including 36 years as a Senator and eight years as Vice President under Barack Obama . He champions policies aimed at strengthening the middle class, expanding healthcare access, restoring national protections for abortion, and addressing climate change. Biden positions himself as a unifying figure committed to protecting democracy and America's global leadership.
Kamala Harris (two bios used for half of respondents):
Kamala Harris, the first woman and person of color to serve as U.S. Vice President. She brings her experience as a former Senator, California Attorney General, and local prosecutor to the role. She champions policies on reproductive freedom, voting rights, and economic equity, positioning herself as a progressive voice in the administration committed to strengthening the middle class and expanding access to healthcare and education.
Kamala Harris, the U.S. Vice President and former California Attorney General, is the first woman to hold her current office. She advocates for expanding healthcare access, protecting reproductive freedom, and supports policies to strengthen the middle class, including tax credits for working families and raising the minimum wage. Drawing on her law enforcement background, Harris emphasizes public safety while positioning herself as a pragmatist committed to economic equity and opportunity for all Americans.
Michael Bennet:
Michael Bennet, a U.S. Senator from Colorado, brings a blend of public and private sector experience to the national stage. As a former school superintendent and businessman, he emphasizes pragmatic solutions to issues like education reform, protecting the environment, and economic opportunity. Bennet highlights his record of bipartisan accomplishments, including immigration reform efforts and expanding the Child Tax Credit. He positions himself as a moderate problem-solver capable of bridging political divides.
Tammy Duckworth:
Tammy Duckworth, a U.S. Senator from Illinois and Iraq War veteran, brings a unique blend of military and public service to her work. She emphasizes resilience and commitment to serving others, focusing on healthcare access, veterans' issues, and economic opportunity for working families. Duckworth highlights her bipartisan accomplishments and positions herself as a pragmatic leader who can bridge divides while advocating for civil rights and support for American workers.
Joe Manchin:
Joe Manchin, a U.S. Senator from West Virginia, is known for his centrist approach and bipartisan reputation. As a former governor and businessman, he emphasizes pragmatic solutions to economic and energy issues. Manchin positions himself as a moderate who can bridge partisan divides while advocating for policies supporting working-class Americans, particularly in rural and energy-producing regions. He focuses on energy independence, job creation, and protecting Social Security and Medicare.
Steve Bullock:
Steve Bullock, a two-term Governor of Montana, brings executive experience and Western pragmatism to the national stage. As a lifelong Montanan and former Attorney General, he emphasizes practical solutions on healthcare, education, and public lands. Bullock highlights his bipartisan record in a Republican-leaning state, including Medicaid expansion and campaign finance reform. He positions himself as a problem-solver focused on rural economic opportunities and preserving America's outdoor heritage
Tim Ryan:
Tim Ryan, a U.S. Representative from Ohio, brings Midwestern pragmatism and working-class advocacy to the national stage. A lifelong Ohioan with Rust Belt roots, he emphasizes revitalizing American manufacturing, investing in infrastructure, and supporting workers in a changing economy. Ryan highlights his bipartisan record on economic development, healthcare access, and combating the opioid crisis. He positions himself as a champion for the middle class who can bridge divides.
Cory Booker:
Cory Booker, a U.S. Senator from New Jersey, brings executive experience and a focus on economic opportunity to the national stage. As a former Newark mayor and attorney, he emphasizes policy innovation, criminal justice reform, and expanding access to education and healthcare. He positions himself as a unifying force capable of bringing people together to tackle challenges, while advocating for policies to strengthen communities and increase economic mobility for all Americans.
About Welcome
Welcome launched to grow the Democratic Party by engaging less ideological, less partisan voters and conducting research demonstrating why a big-tent party is both a reality and a necessity.
CONTACT
Lauren Harper Pope - lauren@welcomepac.org
Jason Boxt - jason@why3wi.com