Memo: Survey estimating down-ballot drag
To: Interested Parties
From: Jason Boxt - Senior Research Advisor, PFP Research and 3W Insights
Date: July 17, 2024 (Survey conducted on July 8, 2024)
RE: Survey of presidential and down-ballot landscape in Senate states
State of the Presidential Race and Down Ballot
Public polls have demonstrated that Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate perform significantly better than Democratic President Joe Biden. Reporting has consistently noted that Democratic members in both the House and Senate are concerned with the effect President Biden may have “down-ballot” in their races and those of their colleagues.
Surveys of 3,044 likely voters across 11 states fielded in the days immediately prior to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump sought to test these theories by comparing the impact of different Democratic presidential candidates on senate races in each state.
Views of Joe Biden across the states tested roughly match his national approval ratings. Biden was deeply unpopular among voters, with an approval rating of 39% with 58% disapproval. Two in five voters (40%) viewed Joe Biden favorably, compared to 58% who viewed him unfavorably. Kamala Harris was slightly less unpopular, with a favorability rating of 39% and 52% viewing her unfavorably. Donald Trump was viewed favorably by 43% of the electorate and unfavorably by 55%, keeping the contest close despite the unpopularity of the Democratic presidential candidate.
Results for the presidential horse race in those 11 states also roughly matched national polling averages, as Joe Biden trailed Donald Trump 46-43, with the rest supporting third-party candidates.
To test the impact of these presidential candidates on down-ballot races, we asked respondents whether they would support the named Democratic or Republican senate candidates if Joe Biden were the Democratic presidential candidate, if Kamala Harris were the Democratic presidential candidate, and if Gretchen Whitmer were the Democratic presidential candidate. In all cases, respondents were told that the Democratic senate candidates endorsed the Democratic presidential candidate. We forced respondents to choose between the Democratic and Republican candidates. In all cases, biographies of Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Gretchen Whitmer were presented to respondents before testing.
In both cases, the Democratic senate candidates greatly overperformed the presidential candidates. However, there was a meaningful difference related to the two presidential candidates. Democratic senate candidates led 55-45 (+10) against the Republican candidates across the states tested when Joe Biden was the nominee, and led 56-44 (+12) when Kamala Harris was the nominee. When Gretchen Whitmer was the nominee, the lead for Senate candidates was even larger (57-43) +14. This two to four point difference suggests that Joe Biden may be a greater drag on down-ballot Democrats than Kamala Harris or an alternative like Gretchen Whitmer.
Modeled estimates of these results suggest that Senate candidates supporting Harris or Whitmer on top of the ticket would outperform Senate candidates supporting Biden in every state, with the difference between Harris and Biden especially large among states with higher African American populations. If Whitmer were the nominee, the differences in support would be even larger, with a particularly large difference in her home state of Michigan. Estimated differences by state are below.
Conclusions
This research suggests there may be merit to the concern about the down-ballot effect of an unpopular presidential nominee. We will continue to explore methods to understand the impact of the top of the Democratic ticket on Senate and House races, and encourage others to include these kinds of questions on their surveys.
Methodology
On July 8th, we sampled 3,044 likely voters through an online web panel. The results were weighted to match the demographics of likely voters, accounting for age, race, education, gender, and past vote. The margin of error for this survey is ±2.2 percentage points. The survey was conducted in the states of Arizona, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
About Welcome
Welcome launched to grow the Democratic Party by engaging less ideological, less partisan voters and conducting research demonstrating why a big-tent party is both a reality and a necessity.
Contact
Lauren Harper Pope - lauren@welcomepac.org
Jason Boxt - jason@why3wi.com