Memo: Voters in their own words on Biden's decision
Memo: Voters in their own words on Biden's decision
To: Interested Parties
From: Jason Boxt - Senior Research Advisor, PFP Research and 3W Insights
Date: July 19, 2024
RE: Open-ended responses from voters on Biden’s decision
SUMMARY
We surveyed 2,402 likely voters from an online national sample provided by Lucid between 7/15/2024 and 7/17/2024 (Monday to Wednesday). The survey asked both traditional closed (multiple-choice) questions and open-ended questions where respondents could answer in their own words. This allowed for more nuanced analysis of the presidential race and voters' opinions around President Biden’s decision. We find:
President Biden is behind in the national polls and losing among independents. In the presidential head-to-head, President Biden is trailing Donald Trump 47% to 43% nationally. President Biden trails President Trump by 7 points among Independent voters – a group he won by nearly 15 percentage points in 2020.
Voters view stepping aside as enhancing Biden’s legacy. We find that voters, especially Democrats, support President Biden stepping aside, viewing it as a selfless act of patriotism. Two thirds of voters, and three quarters of Democrats, report that this decision would enhance President Biden’s legacy.
Voters would view Biden as responsible for Trump’s victory if he stays in and loses. Conversely, we find that if President Biden were to stay in the race and lose to President Trump, many of his supporters would blame him.
“The Best Thing for the Country” - Voters’ Views If Biden Drops Out of the Presidential Race
When asked about President Biden's legacy if he were to drop out of the Presidential race, voters expressed a range of opinions, but sentiment was positive, notably among Democrats. This survey finds that two thirds of voters and three quarters of Democrats would look favorably on the decision to step aside. To give additional nuance to this opinion, here are verbatim quotes from voters (with their demographics) along with a summary of the open-ended questions:
If Joe Biden drops out of the presidential race, what do you think his legacy will be?
Meeting the Moment: "I think he would be remembered as a president who did what he believed to be the best thing for the country at this particular time." (Female, 45-64, College, Biden Voter, White)
The Stakes: "We cannot let Donald Trump win. It would be the end of our country as we used to know it." (Female, 18-44, College, Biden Voter, White)
Enhanced Legacy: "This would enhance his legacy because he knew when to bow out." (Female, 65+, College, Non-voter, White)
Loves His Country: “It would show he cares more about the country than himself” (Female, 65+, Education Non-college, White)
Unchanged View: "I don't think it would impact it. He knows what's at stake and if he makes that decision, then he's doing what he believes is right for our country." (Female, 45-64, College, Biden Voter, White)
We find that two thirds of respondents to this question highlighted the positive impact this decision would have on President Biden’s legacy. There is almost no negative sentiment among these responses – only warmth towards the potential selflessness - from Democrats and independents, and at most indifference from partisan Republicans.
“He Did Not Do What Was Best For America” - Voters’ Views If Biden Stays In and Loses
When asked about Joe Biden's legacy if he stays in and loses the presidential race, voters had mixed views with slightly negative sentiment. Here we look to responses only from people who supported him in the 2020 election:
If Joe Biden loses the presidential election, what do you think his legacy will be?
Negative responses center around averting a loss to Donald Trump
Negative Legacy: "It would be a negative legacy. He did not do what was best for America." (Female, 45-64, Non-college, Biden Voter, Latina)
Should Have Stepped Aside: "That will make it look like he should have just dropped out of the race and let another strong Democrat like Michelle Obama beat Trump." (Female, 18-44, Non-college, Biden Voter, Black)
Denial of Limitations: "He needs to quit denying what we all see that he may not be up to the challenge." (Female, 45-64, Non-college, Biden Voter, White)
Neutral responses defend the president for trying his best
No Impact on Legacy: "This would not impact his legacy at all. He has done a great job as president the past four years. He gave it his all, and that is good enough." (Female, 45-64, Non-college, Biden Voter, Black)
Defended Efforts: "I don't think it would tarnish his legacy at all, he tried his best." (Female, 45-64, College, Biden Voter, White)
Nearly three quarters of the responses here highlight the tarnish that remaining in the race and losing would place on President Biden’s legacy, including from Democrats and independents. Of these negative responses, about half focused on his ambition, while the other half focused on the consequences of remaining on the ticket and losing to Trump.
About Welcome
Welcome launched to grow the Democratic Party by engaging less ideological, less partisan voters and conducting research demonstrating why a big-tent party is both a reality and a necessity.
CONTACT
Lauren Harper Pope - lauren@welcomepac.org
Jason Boxt - jason@why3wi.com