Memo: Welcome test of alternative Democratic presidential candidates
To: Interested Parties
From: Jason Boxt - Senior Research Advisor, PFP Research and 3W Insights
Date: July 9, 2024
RE: Test of alternative Democratic presidential candidates
Summary
As the political class feverishly debates potential alternative Democratic presidential nominees, Welcome undertook a survey to inform the public debate. We did so because:
There is significant uncertainty in how the coming weeks will unfold
Polling and research on potential alternatives for the Democratic nomination can potentially affect decisions among stakeholders who will shape decisions
Many polls will be publicly released testing the viability of alternative candidates and the opinion of the electorate, including blocs like Democrats, Democratic primary voters, as well as age, race, and gender subgroups
Researchers have demonstrated that most horse race polling largely tests how well-known candidates are, not their electability
This survey and subsequent analysis was designed both to educate stakeholders on the current views of the electorate and to highlight the shortcomings of other survey designs, particularly controlling for differential awareness of the candidates.
Major research findings include:
Joe Biden is the worst performing candidate, losing to Trump 47-44.
Kamala Harris is in a close race with Donald Trump, trailing 45-46.
Josh Shapiro, Sherrod Brown, Gretchen Whitmer, Raphael Warnock, and Gina Raimondo all lead Trump by 4 or more points.
Future research should be considered to test these and other potential candidates, with additional biographies and messaging.
Methodology
We surveyed 2,782 likely voters from June 30 to July 5. Interviews were conducted via web panel using the Lucid marketplace. The survey was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, race, education, gender, and vote history, and filtered for respondent attentiveness. To better control for differential awareness of the candidates, those who responded "don't know" were forced to choose between either Trump or the Democrat. The survey presented respondents with biographies and issue stances sourced from campaign materials for every candidate.
Among Democrats tested, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris trail, while all other potential Democrats lead.
Ten alternative Democratic candidates were tested against former President Donald Trump. To help control for the different levels of awareness of each candidate, likely voters were provided a brief bio of each candidate, including Trump and Biden. These bios were sourced from campaign materials, specifically from what appeared on these candidates’ websites. We randomized between two biographies for every candidate to control for the idiosyncrasies of a single biography.
Every one of the alternative Democratic candidates outpaced Joe Biden in head to head polling against Trump. Joe Biden himself trailed Donald Trump by nearly 4 points, while Kamala Harris trails by a point.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown emerged as the strongest candidates from this testing. Both received 49% of the vote compared to 44% for Donald Trump. The rest of the vote went to third parties. This translates into a popular vote margin of victory of 5%. They were closely followed by Senator Raphael Warnock, Secretary Gina Raimondo and Governor Gretchen Whitmer, all leading Trump by 4 points. All five of these candidates performed roughly similarly.
Implications
Our polling suggests that the best known candidates may not be the best performing candidates. Indeed, Joe Biden is known the best, but performs far worse than lesser known governors and senators. Replacing Joe Biden on the ticket with a lesser known candidate running on sound messaging may lead to much stronger performance against President Trump.
This survey is not the final say in matters. However, this survey does suggest an approach to survey lesser known candidates and understand how well they may do against President Trump. Two elements are essential when surveying lesser known candidates:
1) Forced-choice push or impute undecided voters:
Many voters who will ultimately favor an unknown candidate will say they are undecided in a ballot question before they are forced to make a decision. In our survey, we found those voters overwhelmingly favored the lesser known candidate when pushed and had broadly previously supported president Biden in 2020.
2) Include biographies of prospective candidates, drawing from their own campaign messaging:
This can allow voters to distinguish between candidates in ways that may better predict the outcome of a campaign. Biographies can surface aspects of a candidate that may affect their success or failure in a presidential campaign.
We recommend that pollsters follow a similar approach and poll hypothetical candidates using these best practices. This can shed essential light on the state of the race in uncertain times.
About Welcome
Welcome launched in 2019 as an effort to grow the Democratic Party by engaging less ideological, less partisan voters and conducting research demonstrating why a big-tent party is both a reality and a necessity.
Contact
Lauren Harper Pope, lauren@welcomepac.org
Jason Boxt, jason@why3wi.com
Appendix: Candidate bios
Donald Trump
Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States, describes himself as an outsider fighting against the political establishment. He advocates for an "America First" agenda, focusing on strict immigration policies, fair trade deals, domestic energy production, and conservative social values. Trump promises to revive the economy, strengthen law enforcement, and combat what he sees as censorship and corruption in government.
Joe Biden
Version 1:
Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, is an experienced statesman with a long history of public service, including 36 years as a Senator and eight years as Vice President under Barack Obama. He champions policies aimed at strengthening the middle class, expanding healthcare access, restoring national protections for abortion, and addressing climate change. Biden positions himself as a unifying figure committed to protecting democracy and America's global leadership.
Version 2:
Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, brings decades of legislative and executive experience to the White House. His agenda focuses on economic recovery, emphasizing job creation and support for American manufacturing. As a global leader, Biden works to restore America's international standing and strengthen international partnerships. He prioritizes unity and bipartisanship in addressing national challenges, including climate change, creating jobs, and strengthening the nation’s infrastructure.
Kamala Harris
Version 1:
Kamala Harris, is the first woman and person of color to serve as U.S. Vice President. She brings her experience as a former Senator, California Attorney General, and local prosecutor to the role. She champions policies on reproductive freedom, voting rights, and economic equity, positioning herself as a progressive voice in the administration committed to strengthening the middle class and expanding access to healthcare and education.
Version 2;
Kamala Harris, the U.S. Vice President and former California Attorney General, is the first woman to hold her current office. She advocates for expanding healthcare access, protecting reproductive freedom, and supports policies to strengthen the middle class, including tax credits for working families and raising the minimum wage. Drawing on her law enforcement background, Harris emphasizes public safety while positioning herself as a pragmatist committed to economic equity and opportunity for all Americans.
Gretchen Whitmer
Version 1:
Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan, is a dynamic leader with a track record of bipartisan accomplishments in state government. She champions policies aimed at lowering taxes for working families, protecting reproductive freedoms, fixing infrastructure, and growing the middle class. Whitmer has a track record of electability. She won both her gubernatorial races by wide margins. She positions herself as a practical problem-solver committed to addressing everyday challenges facing American families.
Version 2:
Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan, focuses on delivering tangible results through infrastructure improvement, economic development, and education accessibility. She has prioritized repairing roads and bridges while attracting significant investments to the state. Whitmer emphasizes bipartisan cooperation, having signed over 1,000 bills with support from both parties. She positions herself as a pragmatic leader capable of addressing complex challenges with decisive action while working across the aisle.
Gavin Newsom
Version 1:
Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, is a leader with executive experience managing America's most populous state. He has championed causes such as climate action, healthcare expansion, and civil rights. As governor, Newsom has tackled issues like homelessness, gun violence, and economic inequality. He positions himself as someone ready to take the fight to what he sees as the extremism of the MAGA movement while promoting California's innovative approaches to national challenges.
Version 2:
Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, leads America's most populous state with a focus on progressive policies and innovation. He champions ambitious climate initiatives, universal healthcare access, and strong protections for civil rights and reproductive freedom. Newsom has taken on complex challenges like homelessness and gun violence, while promoting economic opportunities for all Californians. He positions himself as a bold leader ready to defend democratic values and apply California's forward-thinking solutions to national issues.
J.B. Pritzker
Version 1:
J.B. Pritzker, the Governor of Illinois, is a leader who combines entrepreneurial experience with public service. As governor, he's focused on infrastructure, criminal justice reform, and economic growth while maintaining fiscal responsibility. Pritzker champions progressive policies and job creation, positioning himself as a pragmatic problem-solver with bipartisan achievements. He aims to bring his balanced approach of social progress and economic management from Illinois to the national stage.
Version 2:
J.B. Pritzker, the Governor of Illinois, combines his business acumen with a commitment to public service. He has prioritized major infrastructure investments, clean energy initiatives, and education funding while stabilizing the state's finances. Pritzker has focused on expanding healthcare access, supporting small businesses, and addressing social equity issues. He positions himself as a leader capable of fostering innovation and economic growth, drawing on his success in managing America's sixth-largest state economy.
Pete Buttigieg
Version 1:
Pete Buttigieg, the U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is a leader who combines public service with a vision for long-term national progress. As Transportation Secretary, he's focused on infrastructure, safety, and innovation. Buttigieg champions policies addressing climate change, racial equity, and democratic reform. He positions himself as a pragmatic problem-solver with a fresh perspective, aiming to reimagine American institutions for 21st-century challenges.
Version 2:
"Pete Buttigieg, the U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, brings a new generation's perspective to national leadership. Drawing on his experience in local government and military service, he focuses on modernizing infrastructure and addressing climate change. Buttigieg advocates for economic policies to strengthen the middle class and promote innovation. He positions himself as a bridge-builder, aiming to unite diverse Americans behind pragmatic solutions to the nation’s problems.
Sherrod Brown
Version 1:
Sherrod Brown, a long-serving U.S. Senator from Ohio, is a leader known for his advocacy for working families and the middle class. He champions policies to strengthen American manufacturing, promote fair trade, and expand healthcare access. Brown positions himself as a progressive with Midwestern appeal, capable of connecting with blue-collar voters while advancing middle-class priorities nationally.
Version 2:
Sherrod Brown, a long-serving U.S. Senator from Ohio, is known for his "Dignity of Work" agenda that prioritizes the interests of working families. He champions policies to strengthen American manufacturing, reform trade agreements, and expand access to affordable healthcare. As Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, Brown focuses on reining in Wall Street excesses and supporting small businesses. He emphasizes his electability, having won consistently in the purple state of Ohio
Raphael Warnock
Version 1:
Raphael Warnock, a U.S. Senator from Georgia and former pastor, brings his experience in civil rights advocacy to the national stage. He champions policies to expand healthcare access, protect voting rights, and strengthen the middle class across America. Drawing on his background growing up in public housing, Warnock emphasizes economic equity and bipartisanship. He focuses on supporting a diverse national economy while advocating for criminal justice reform and environmental protection.
Version 2:
Raphael Warnock, a U.S. Senator from Georgia, combines his background as a pastor with his role as a legislator to address national challenges. He prioritizes expanding affordable healthcare, particularly in rural areas, and lowering prescription drug costs. Warnock is a strong advocate for voting rights and election integrity. Drawing on his upbringing in Savannah's public housing, he focuses on creating economic opportunities and supporting small businesses. Warnock emphasizes finding common ground on issues like agriculture and veterans' affairs.
Gina Raimondo
Version 1:
Gina Raimondo, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce and former Rhode Island Governor, brings experience in both public service and business to her role. She prioritizes economic development, job creation, and workforce training. Raimondo focuses on strengthening American competitiveness, expanding manufacturing, and investing in innovation. She advocates for education and job training programs to help workers succeed in a changing economy.
Version 2:
Gina Raimondo, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce and former Rhode Island Governor, combines her experience as a businesswoman with her public service record to address national economic challenges. She champions policies to boost American manufacturing, expand workforce development, and enhance technological innovation. Raimondo emphasizes the importance of public-private partnerships in creating job opportunities and preparing workers for the industries of the future.
Mitch Landrieu
Mitch Landrieu, former Mayor of New Orleans and coordinator of Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, brings extensive experience in urban revitalization and crisis management to the national stage. As mayor, he led New Orleans' recovery from Hurricane Katrina and gained prominence for removing Confederate monuments. Landrieu focuses on infrastructure development, racial reconciliation, and economic opportunity. He emphasizes bipartisan cooperation and practical problem-solving.
Mitch Landrieu, former Mayor of New Orleans and senior advisor to President Biden, brings expertise in urban revitalization and crisis management to national politics. He led New Orleans' recovery after Hurricane Katrina and gained prominence for removing Confederate monuments. Landrieu focuses on infrastructure development, racial reconciliation, and economic opportunity. He positions himself as a pragmatic leader capable of bridging political and cultural divides.
Josh Shapiro
Version 1:
Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania, focuses on infrastructure, economic growth, and growing the middle class. He champions policies that protect voting rights, expand healthcare access, and promote economic growth. Shapiro knows how to respond to a crisis, overseeing the rapid repair of the Interstate 95 highway collapse in record time. Shapiro positions himself as a pragmatist, emphasizing bipartisan solutions to create prosperity for all.
Version 2:
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania's Governor, brings a record of reform and bipartisan results to the national stage. As Attorney General, he tackled corruption and led high-profile investigations. As Governor, he's focused on economic growth, securing two clean hydrogen hub projects creating over 40,000 jobs. Shapiro emphasizes his ability to work across party lines while standing firm on defending the middle class. He positions himself as a pragmatic problem-solver who can bridge political divides and deliver results for Americans.