Middle Out Won Ukraine Funding. Is the Border next?

"Good Republicans" in the House stepped up on Ukraine, as some have in state legislatures

So turns out Congress (belatedly) worked! The bill to secure Ukraine aid worked as predicted, and the only way it could have. From the middle out.

The breakthrough of a semi-functional House renewed questions about the future of the Republican Party. Here’s how one longtime conservative commentator frames it:

One of my ongoing theses has been that (a) We are in the midst of an ongoing authoritarian attempt; (b) This attempt is fueled by despotic longings among some nontrivial portion of Republican voters; (c) Because a meaningful portion of Republican voters are not interested in democratic governance, existing Republican politicians—even Good Republicans—cannot be trusted with power.

The Case for The Good Republican

We think a lot about courageous, pro-democracy Republicans (and ex-Republicans), and how they can be welcomed into an anti-authoritarian coalition that wins. Our programming often focuses on how courageous (and former Republicans) can validate pro-democracy candidates. These party-switching leaders and ticket-splitters can - as they did in 2018, and 2020, and 2022 - join with Democrats to deliver a “Revenge of the Never Trumpers.”

But there is also a case for how current Republicans can act well on their own. Last week,

Jonathan V. Last

at Never Trump Republican Headquarters (aka The Bulwark) put out that Case for Trusting Normie Republicans. It started with the above thesis, but he subsequently cites a trio of actions in this “argument for optimism”: Mike Pence on January 6th, the 2023 avoidance of a government shutdown, and last week’s Ukraine bill. This line of thinking goes on:

Maybe we should take this as evidence that whatever a Good Republican might say in service to Trump, Americans can count on these guys in a pinch? That when push comes to shove, a Good Republican will stand up to Trump and take the hit in order to preserve the Constitution, or keep the economy humming, or fight the Russians.

JVL then rebuts this line of thinking in the big picture:

So that’s the best argument I can muster in defense of relying on Good Republicans.

Now let me tell you why I don’t quite buy it: There’s a category difference in that list up above.

It’s true that when everything comes down to one guy, Mike Pence and Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson did the right thing.

But what made the impeachment vote different is that it didn’t come down to one guy. It required collective action. And the history of the last four years is that when faced with collective action decision points, the Republican party has not been able to function properly.

The whole thing is worth a read.

Middle Out Wins (in the states)

Back to the optimism! Why, in February, did we sound a cautiously optimistic note about Congress getting a deal done?

Congress is only mostly dead. Despite a short list of able leaders in the GOP, there is a long list of bipartisan accomplishments during the Biden era (as Joe Manchin’s prayer card will show you).

That optimism is because of leaders like Blue Dog co-chairs Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Jared Golden, who emphasized that “a deal like that has to grow out of the middle, and is unlikely to begin with a one-party solution.”

That is also true in the states. Welcome friend

David Pepper

writes persuasively about how states have become “Laboratories of Autocracy” for the MAGA right to test new methods.

But states can also be Laboratories of Centrism for centrist political entrepreneurs and creative, courageous elected leaders. We juxtaposed the weakness of McCarthy and moderate Republicans with the creativity in state capitols last January:

In Harrisburg and Columbus, Republicans had the majority of votes in the chamber but moderate leverage came from outside the GOP caucus and iced out the extreme right.

In DC, bipartisan moderates did not wave the white flag — they didn’t show up to the battle at all.

Centrist politics has evolved over the past two decades from a focus on making democracy work better to a banding together of unlikely bedfellows to protect democracy itself. 

AOC famously said “moderate is a way of life - like ‘meh’.”

“Meh” doesn’t conjure up creativity or strange bedfellows. But it is required to win the middle - and strike back at the extremes from the middle-out.

Border Next? Dueling Headlines

Speaking of not being “meh”, those same two Blue Dog co-chairs went right back after the missing piece of their middle-out deal: the border.

That’s just one headline, from NPR (with an audio component, too), about Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s focus on following up securing borders abroad with action on borders at home.

But, according to POLITICO, a congressional solution ain’t likely:

As we’ve seen in the states, the middle can win when its muscles are built up. But it takes a lot of reps. Centrists need more time in the lab - and a Democratic majority.

PS - remember what Steven Dennis always says about congressional deals. It can take a lot of NO’s to get to YES. We appreciate those still trying.