Million Dollar Misses

The Angela Alsobrooks victory over David Trone makes self-funding candidates 0-33 in US Senate elections since 2020

The $60 million losing effort from David Trone in the primary race for US Senate in Maryland has spawned a reflection on the fate of self-funding candidates, including in The New York Times this morning. What that article, and many others, miss is the incredible streak of … well, misses by self-funding candidates. Check out the below research from the Welcome Democracy Institute, which conducts research on polarization and electoral competitiveness. The changing nature of electoral coalitions and campaign finance will have implications for years to come, and is worthy of future research.

May 15, 2024 - Analysis by the Welcome Democracy Institute

Over the last two full election cycles, 30 Senate candidates loaned their campaign $1 million or more. All 30 lost their elections, despite spending $203 million in 2020 and 2022. Three more have been added to that list so far in the 2024 cycle, making it 33 in a row.

That losing streak continued earlier this week, with David Trone losing the Democratic primary to Angela Alsobrooks despite contributing $60 million of his own money to the campaign, making himself the biggest self-funding loser over the last three cycles. Maryland Republican Robin Ficker lost the Republican Senate primary earlier this week, and fellow Republican Senate hopeful Matt Dolan lost earlier in Ohio. 

Those three self-funding losers have spent more than $75 million of their own money. A fourth self-funding candidate, John Rust, was removed from the ballot after spending $2 million. 

Two Republican self-funders (Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania and Bernie Moreno in Ohio) are looking to break the losing streak this November after advancing from their respective Republican primaries. In total, there are 11 remaining self-funding candidates who have self-funded $38 million so far. 

Over the last two cycles, Republicans have relied more on self-funders, with 22 self-funding millionaires being Republican, 6 Democrats and 2 Independents. 2024 is already shaping up to be the cycle of the self-funder, with 11 Senate candidates who self-funded at $1 million or more remaining, all Republicans. The 11 remaining candidates are:

2020: 11 (7 GOP, 3 Dem, 1 Independent)

In 2020, 11 Senate candidates self-funded at least $1 million. 

• 7 Republicans lost 

  • 5 Republicans lost in the primary 

  • 2 Republicans lost in the general (Kelly Loeffler in Georgia and Corky Messner in New Hampshire

• 3 Democrats lost in the primary 

• 1 Independent lost in Illinois 

2022: 19 (15 GOP, 3 Dem, 1 Independent)

In 2022, 19 Senate candidates self funded at least $1 million.

• 15 Republicans lost 

  • 12 Republicans lost in the primary 

  • 3 Republicans lost in the general (Jon O’Dea in Colorado), Leora Levy (Connecticut) & Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania)

• 3 Democrats lost

  • 2 lost in the primary 

  • 1 lost in the general (Trudy Busch Valentine in Missouri)

• 1 Independent lost in Vermont

2024 (through May 15)

In 2024, 5 Senate candidates who self funded at least $1 million have had their primaries.

• 2 Republicans lost in the primary 

• 2 Republicans won the primary

• 1 Democrat lost the primary

Sources: The 2020, 2022 and 2024 figures were taken from Open Secrets. The 2024 figures are from the Q1 reports which were filed in April, except for the Maryland numbers, which are from the pre-primary report filed in early May.