One Week Out: The First Real Tests of 2026
Primaries set the tone, from North Carolina to Texas, and Democrats need to nominate candidates who can win.
One week from today, the 2026 election cycle officially kicks off.
Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas will hold the first primaries of the year. Most of the attention is on the Texas Senate race (and for good reason), but the House races will tell us more about whether either party understands the terrain heading into November.
Texas: Ground Zero for the Redistricting Wars
It’s impossible to talk about Texas this cycle without talking about maps.
Texas is at the center of the redistricting fights that are taking place across the country. It’s both a battleground and a proving ground for how far states are willing to push things.
The Senate primaries at the top of the ticket are sucking up most of the oxygen. On the Democratic side, James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett are locked in a competitive race. On the Republican side, a messy three-way primary could easily go to a runoff. If that happens, Republicans will burn another 12 weeks and tens of millions of dollars while the Democratic nominee gets to pivot to the general.
But there are consequential fights further down the ballot.
South Texas has been the story of the last two cycles. What used to be safely Democratic territory shifted hard to the right at the presidential level. If Democrats are serious about clawing that back, they can’t just run the same playbook and hope demographic trends save them. They need candidates who fit the district.
Texas 15: Moderate vs. Progressive Test
The Texas 15 Democratic primary was featured in the New York Times last week and is becoming the first moderate versus progressive primary of the cycle.
Tejano star and Welcome-endorsed candidate Bobby Pulido is running to be the Democratic nominee who takes on incumbent Monica de la Cruz. Pulido brings something Democrats haven’t had in South Texas in a while: cultural credibility and a willingness to say what he actually thinks about issues. He has not been afraid to call out where Democrats have failed or why they have lost the trust of South Texas voters. This is crucial in a district that Trump carried by 18 points less than two years ago.
He’s facing Dr. Ada Cuellar, an ER physician and recent law school grad running to Pulido’s left. Cuellar has described herself as a working mom who understands the lives and shares the struggles of South Texans. She has also put more than $1 million of her own money into the race and has raised only a fraction of that from individual donors. That’s not just a fundraising stat, it’s a campaign theory. Cuellar’s campaign is an almost entirely self-funded operation that’s running on a progressive message in a district that has been trending the opposite direction.
The district’s recent history demonstrates the progressive message hasn’t been well received. Previous iterations of the district were represented by Blue Dog Vicente Gonzalez before redistricting shifted him to the 34th. In 2020, Gonzalez defeated Monica de la Cruz by 3 points. In 2022, de la Cruz faced progressive Democrat Michelle Vallejo and won by nearly 9 points. In a rematch in 2024, de la Cruz expanded that margin to 14 points. The story is clear: South Texas voters are willing to vote for a Democrat, just not a liberal one.
If Democrats are serious about competing in South Texas again, Bobby Pulido is exactly the kind of candidate to nominate.
Texas 35: Open Seat Chaos
Just north of the 15th is TX-35, a completely redrawn district with no incumbent running. That alone makes it volatile. It is a district that will be another test of how Democrats navigate newly configured, Hispanic-majority districts that don’t vote the way they used to.
Johnny Garcia is a sheriff’s deputy who is running as an “old school Democrat” and is part of a four-way primary that has not garnered a lot of attention or money, leaving the race relatively open. Garcia has raised the most money and is well positioned to finish first and advance to a runoff.
The Republican side is even more chaotic. There are a staggering 11 Republican candidates on the ballot, setting up a crowded and unpredictable contest that could very well head to a runoff too.
North Carolina 11: Expanding the Map
In NC-11, Jamie Ager is running in western North Carolina, an area that historically is Trump country, culturally conservative, and typically tough terrain for Democrats. But it’s also a district where the Republican lean has softened slightly in recent cycles.
Ager’s background as a farmer, small businessman, and grandson of a former Democratic congressman is tailored to the region. He’s not running a nationalized, cable-news campaign. He’s running as someone rooted in western North Carolina. He’s talking about agriculture, rural investment, small business growth, and showing up in communities that Democrats too often write off.
If Democrats want to expand the map in places that aren’t obvious on paper, this is what it looks like. This isn’t theoretical: the DCCC’s decision to include NC-11 in its first batch of Red to Blue targets is a signal that national Democrats see a real opportunity here. Ager has outraised the Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards and holds a $63k cash on hand advantage going into March, both of which are warning signs for any incumbent running for re-election.
If Democrats are going to prove they can compete in culturally conservative, working-class districts again, Ager’s race is one of the first real tests of that theory in 2026.
One Week Out
South Texas and western North Carolina are very different places, but they share one reality: voters there are not looking for nationalized messaging experiments. They’re looking for candidates who understand their communities, speak their language, and are serious about winning.
Bobby Pulido, Johnny Garcia, and Jamie Ager are early tests of whether Democrats have absorbed the lessons of the last two cycles or whether they’re going to keep assuming the map will correct itself.
In one week, we start finding out.