Playing chess while getting yelled at

Is Schumer vulnerable? Who are Democrats afraid of? Has the GOP caucus changed? Who knew Dems had no leverage?

There’s anger out there at Chuck Schumer. And some want to take their anger out at the ballot box.

Here’s CNN: AOC mobilizes Democrats against Schumer as colleagues privately urge her to consider primary challenge.

Mostly left unsaid: Schumer has 1,393 days left in his term.

How long is that in our current political environment?

1,393 days ago was May 23, 2021. These were the biggest stories:

• Supreme Court takes up case challenging Roe v. Wade

• White House releases Biden 2020 tax returns

• Coronavirus cases down in all 50 states

A lot can happen in 3+ years.

Here’s an example of another New York statewide elected official: in far fewer than 1,393 days, Andrew Cuomo has gone from Governor of New York, to a scandal that led nearly every elected Democrat in the state to call for his resignation, to resigning the office, and then coming all the way back to being frontrunner for Mayor of New York City (endorsed by some of those who called for him to resign).

Between now and mid-2028’s hypothetical AOC-Schumer primary, America will:

• Host the World Cup

• Hold Midterm elections

• Have a Democratic presidential primary

• Have a Republican presidential primary

• … and a zillion other things we cannot predict

Thirteen Democratic Senators hold seats up for election in 2026. The only one to vote for the controversial measure avoiding a government shutdown was Dick Durbin of Illinois, who turns 81 in November and is unlikely to run for re-election.

Five of the fifteen Democrats up in 2028 voted for it, including Schumer.

But 2028 is a long way away.

Miles from Median

So the Democratic Senators who “caved” to keep the government open will not face voters anytime soon. But they will face pressure from activists.

It is hard to overstate just how much the median Democratic elected official fears progressive activists more than they fear swing voters.

Democrats hold 47 seats in the Senate. The median Senator is from the 12th most-Democratic state - Illinois, which Kamala Harris won by 11 points.

This distance between medians is even more dramatic in the House, where Democrats hold 215 seats. The median Democrat is the 108th most-Democratic - by one measure, that is Hawaii’s 2nd congressional district, where Trump got 34% of the vote.

People joke that politicians play 5D chess, that Trump and Schumer are playing a game far more complex than our three-dimensional world.

But being a modern Democratic politician is more like playing regular chess in the park while surrounded by an angry mob of alleged supporters demanding that each individual move of a chess piece be an exciting offensive maneuver.

For 90% of Democratic elected officials, the primary election is a greater threat than a general election. Appeasing angry supporters with each individual move trumps winning the game.

Gone to battle with no ammo

It is not just progressive activists who are upset. There is tension between the chambers. And even within the Senate, even the most sober of leaders are showing frustration with Schumer.

Michael Bennet was pissed, saying Democratic leaders had "No strategy, no plan, and no message on this spending bill"

NBC reporter Sahil Kapur:

Democrats’ fatal flaw on govt funding: clinging to 30-day CR as their only counter-offer. Not viable when the speaker & president made clear they were done with FY25 approps. Whatever you think of Schumer’s move, his party had gone to battle with no ammo.

Who knew last week that there was no leverage?

The “Hollow Resistance”