Purple District Parlay
Updates from each of our Win the Middle districts.
A month into football season, it’s clear which sleeper picks have become big winners on the gridiron.
When it comes to U.S. House races, we’ve got another month to see which underestimated congressional districts surprise at the ballot box. In the meantime, there’s more promising data for centrist Democrats coming in each week.
“Sleeper seats suddenly in sight” headlined a recent Politico story that captures what is happening in our Welcome races. These are districts where Trump won in 2020 (but not by much) and where extreme MAGA incumbents are out of step with their mostly moderate voters. And, most importantly, where a dynamic Democratic nominee is actively depolarizing by reaching out to flip votes in the middle - and flip the House back to the Democrats.
That Politico story’s biggest news was a recent poll showing Rebecca Cooke up two points over GOP incumbent Derrick Van Orden (the guy who yells in libraries and at the Capitol).
Races like these are “suddenly in sight” thanks to under-the-radar work by groups focused on winning over swing voters. This was a problem last cycle, as
reported on last week in “How Democrats Plan to Flip Seats”:Last quarter, Democratic challengers out-raised their incumbent opponents in 17 of the 29 most competitive districts. As a result, they’ve been able to air more ads.
This is a departure from where the party stood last year. The Democratic Party has maintained a sizable cash advantage in recent election cycles and, subsequently, been able to air more ads. But last election cycle, that money didn’t necessarily make it to the candidates who needed it the most. According to an analysis by Welcome PAC, “In 8 of the 29 GOP-held districts where Trump received 50-54% of the vote in 2020, Democratic nominees had raised less than $100,000 across the entire cycle.”
I asked Welcome PAC co-founder Liam Kerr if he thought Democratic challengers were better positioned this time around. He noted that “the share of races under $100k has dropped from 8 of 29 to 7 of 32 thus far this cycle.” And ultimately, “Democrats are conceding fewer districts, and positioned to fully compete in more districts.”
Rebecca Cooke is a prime example, and it isn’t just about the money. She’s following the centrist path to win the middle. Just check out a key quote in her latest ad, “Too Far:
It seems like everyone in Washington is either too far left, or too far right. I’m Rebecca Cooke, and like most folks in Wisconsin, I’m somewhere in the middle.
This race may have been a sleeper to Politico, but not to those of us on Team Normal. For more than a year, moderates have worked to ensure Democrats fielded a dynamic centrist candidate who could win the middle in Wisconsin’s 3rd, drawing in independent voters turned off by the extremist behavior of incumbent Derrick Van Orden. WelcomePAC has invested more than $500,000 in this race, with Blue Dog co-chair Marie Gluesenkamp Perez pitching her mentee in The New York Times, and NewDems funding a major ad campaign in the primary.
Parlaying Sleepers Into Wins
We’ve often written about our broken political marketplace. This time last cycle, we noted how it is “Predictably Bonkers” to spend billions and leave some winnable seats untouched.
But candidates like Cooke are starting to get more play from the national party: House Majority PAC, the Democratic Party’s largest super PAC, announced a $400k spend in support of her race, and ratings agencies that mostly missed shockers like Adam Frisch and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez last cycle have been paying more attention — Sabato’s Crystal Ball upgraded Wisconsin’s 3rd from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”
PA-10
This momentum isn’t rolling just in Wisconsin, nor is it shared only among party institutions and elections ratings agencies: more donors and media are tuning into these winnable races, like Pennsylvania’s 10th.
Janelle Stelson just announced a whopping $2.7 million raised in the most recent quarter. A deep dive on Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district from New York Magazine’s Intelligencer is a must read. Check out some of our favorite parts:
“Perry is the only member of the Freedom Caucus to represent a swing district and, despite that, he has not changed his political views an iota even though the swath of central Pennsylvania he’s represented for six terms has become more moderate. A traditionally Republican-leaning area that includes the state capital, Harrisburg, the district has recently moved thanks to the mid-Atlantic transplants filling subdivisions over what used to be farmland. It is almost a stereotypical middle ground …
At one point during our sit-down interview, a man named Omar recognizes her while riding by on his bike and stops for a picture, proclaiming that Stelson is his “idol.” After nearly 40 years on TV, Stelson is particularly gifted at retail politics for a first-time candidate, telling starstruck locals, “I’m out of my box. I have legs.”
CBS News also featured this race, noting “Democrats bullish about TV anchor Janelle Stelson's chances against GOP Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania.”
And a crew of pro-democracy PACs led by Defend The Vote and democracyFirst PAC launched a $1.1 million ad featuring a veteran, who served with Perry, blasting the incumbent as an extremist with ties to QAnon conspiracies and January 6th.
CA-41
The Will Rollins team is on a high after a new non-partisan poll from USC and college partners show Rollins and Republican Ken Calvert tied at 46%. More than a quarter of all voters in the district freely described Calvert as “corrupt,” demonstrating that Rollins’ reform-driven campaign is resonating with voters in the 41st District. As seen in Politico:
Republican incumbent Ken Calvert and Democrat Will Rollins are dead even, each receiving the support of 46 percent of likely voters. Their race in CA-41 (Palm Springs and Riverside County) is perhaps the most competitive in the state due to Rollins peeling “off a small but significant number” of GOP-leaning voters. Calvert was the only GOP candidate included in the poll who underperformed Trump and Garvey in his district.
Rollins released a new ad featuring Riverside County police officers sharing their support for his campaign, noting:
Will spent his career in law enforcement. As a counter-terrorism prosecutor, he took on ISIS and Al-Qaeda terrorists, and went after MS-13 and the Sinaloa cartel to stop illegal drugs from crossing the border. In Congress, Will Rollins will go after corruption in both political parties.
His ads have also hit Calvert on his support for a nationwide abortion ban and vote to punish doctors.
Welcome has a new ad airing in CA-41 hitting Calvert for corruption and highlighting Will’s bipartisan credentials.
NY-01
John Avlon was added to the DCCC’s coveted Red to Blue list, joining fellow Welcome candidate Whitney Fox on last week’s Red to Blue additions. With the additions of Avlon and Fox, all 6 Welcome candidates are now officially Red to Blue districts.
Avlon is out hitting Trump on the SALT promise and LaLota on the end of Roe v Wade. Local news has covered how Avlon is running his campaign from the center:
Now Avlon, who already had been claiming the middle, has announced the formation of a committee called "Republicans for Avlon." He characterized it as a boon to voters "looking for bipartisan, common sense solutions to rebuilding the middle class and the middle of our politics, lowering the cost of living, securing the border and reducing gun violence." Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois is with the group; he broke with the Trump-dominated party and retired last year from the House after playing a prominent role in the legislative investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol that targeted House members and Vice President Mike Pence.
FL-13
Our prayers are with the residents of Florida’s 13th congressional district who are still recovering from last week’s Hurricane Helene. Whitney Fox and her team have been out helping with recovery and clean-up, and her campaign tweeted ways we can support Floridians affected by the storm.
Meanwhile, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has been dodging stating a position on Florida’s abortion referendum, and she isn’t willing to put her record in front of voters, refusing to participate in any debates ahead of the election.
WelcomePAC is out with a new ad, “Who’s Better,” contrasting Fox’s bipartisan credentials with Luna’s extremism on abortion, healthcare and Social Security.
CO-03
Adam Frisch has been on the road, traveling across one of the country’s largest congressional districts to meet voters, host meet-and-greets and attend events. Meanwhile, like GOP incumbents in other Welcome districts, his opponent is dodging debates.
Frisch has a new ad out knocking Republican opponent Jeff Hurd for “wanting to send rural water to Denver and raise electric rates, and another noting Hurd’s law firm “brags it helps foreign interests buy up Colorado property.”
Hurd also ignored an invitation to a forum hosted by The Colorado Sun and Colorado Mesa University's Hutchins Water Center to discuss hot topics like water, public lands, and environmental policy issues alongside Frisch. Frisch noted, “I was eager to attend, but my opponent ghosted them.”
Localizing Incumbents in Alaska, Washington, and Maine
ICYMI, Welcome published our endorsement of Rep. Peltola this week featuring the reasons why we think Peltola can win her tough re-election bid this November.
Fellow Blue Dog co-chairs Reps. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Jared Golden are similarly depolarizing their Trump-won districts by localizing issues.
MGP has been touting local issues like funding the waterfront and cracking down on fentanyl smuggling. Local media coverage has focused on Gluesenkamp Perez’s independent voting record:
With a race so tight, independent voters will have to be swayed.
“I am the third-most independent member in terms of voting history. I'm always going to put our community first and our values,” Perez said.”
Golden is similarly keeping it local - and independent. He boasts the support of “Lobstermen for Golden,” showing his dedicated focus to local issues. His latest ad touts how Golden is “standing up to Joe Biden and his own party” to protect them.
Why Moderates Win the Middle: Third Way analysis
If you’re wondering why we believe so emphatically in our candidates, Third Way released a new memo this week that helps with proof: “The Majority Makers: Why the House Will Be Won Through the Middle.”
In the memo, they note:
Far-left groups have been arguing for years that the more progressive the congressional candidate, the better the chance of winning, saying their candidates will energize base voters, increase turnout, and deliver victory. Yet, for three election cycles in a row, mainstream Democrats have outperformed far-left candidates in the races that determine who holds power in Congress. Candidates endorsed by the New Democrat Coalition have flipped 43 seats from red to blue since 2018, while Our Revolution and Justice Democrats have not managed to flip a single Republican-held seat over the last three cycles.
Follow the data (and the vibes), and support the Win The Middle slate today. We can hit the parlay of underrated races, giving our Blue Dog incumbents a bigger team — and giving Democrats the majority.