Putin’s Man in Pennsylvania
Leverage for Ukraine in the center-right joining the Big Tent in key districts
Last week saw two more steps in the Right’s lurch away from Ukraine funding. Both serve as a reminder that the Never Trumpers who stopped the red wave in 2022 hold the swing votes against Russia.
The 2024 GOP Vice Presidential debate saw the two top-polling candidates echo Trump’s calls to slow that anti-Russia funding. As it stands now, no Republican presidential candidate polling at 5% or greater supports continuing Ukraine funding without restrictions.
The debate did not lack for lacking courage. Asked whether they would support a nominee Trump after a criminal conviction, six of the eight raised their hands, with varying degrees of delay. Vivek raised his hand immediately, followed by DeSantis and three others after they tentatively looked around.
Attention then shifted to the Unhung Mike Pence and Chris Christie, who blames Trump for nearly killing him with Covid.
Pence, with his neck still intact enough to look both ways, eventually raised his hand. The survivor from New Jersey had enough leftover antibodies to resist the urge.
Last week also saw just how much the executive branch aspirants on the anti-anti-Putin wing of the GOP have backup on the outside. Hours before the debate, the Heritage Foundation’s top defense expert resigned over its campaign against Ukraine funding. Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts had declared in The Hill that, “The case for supporting Ukraine is weaker than ever” and “It’s time to turn off the tap.”
The pro-Ukraine wing of the GOP may be getting squeezed, but they have a secret weapon: their voters whose party-switching tendencies swung races against extremist Republicans in 2022.
The Best Defense is a Good Offense
It is not just the conservative think tanks down the road from Pennsylvania Ave. The Fifth Column has a whole caucus in Congress, led by a former sewage inspector from Pennsylvania who is their weakest link.
Rep. Scott Perry chairs the Freedom Caucus, which will figure prominently in the upcoming spending debate and has already laid down a marker against additional aid to Ukraine. He is one of six legislators to oppose requiring the preservation of evidence of Russian war crimes. The others represent districts that favor Republicans by 11, 14, 16, 19, and 22 points.
Perry, however, is vulnerable. His Harrisburg-based district gave Trump just 51% of the vote in 2020. He is the archetype of an opponent that Democrats and their Never Trump allies must target in the 2024 elections.
Perry once admitted to doctoring sewage reports related to the illegal dumping of sludge on the bank of a local creek. He was placed in the “Accelerated Rehabilitative Disposition probationary program for first-time nonviolent offenders”
Hours after the Capitol riot, Perry voted against certifying Pennsylvania’s results. Days earlier, he texted with federal indictee Mark Meadows about a “cyber forensic team” seeking possession of voting machines, suggested the NSA “seize” communications about foreign tampering, and, in a sure indication of sound judgment, said he was “talking with Rudy’s folks in Philly.”
The FBI took Perry’s phone. Then Perry sued to get it back. Then un-sued.
The most disturbing part? Perry then won re-election with no primary opponent and a meekly funded general election challenge. This was a supply problem, not a voter demand problem. Perry won the district by 7 points on the same ballot that voters in the district gave Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro a 12-point victory. Plenty of anti-extremist Republican voters went to the ballot box and rejected the problem on the top of the ballot, they just weren’t given another lever to pull.
What Would Putin Do?
Defeating Perry would be good for Democrats and empower independents and moderate Republicans. It also provides tremendous leverage against Russia.
As no bracelets say, What Would Putin Do?
In a rarity, Putin would probably just go practice democracy in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.
Putin understands leverage. Troll farms to meddle in elections? Hiring former German chancellors to threaten energy reduction? Millions of rubles down for billions of value. Massive ROI.
Swing voters in almost-competitive districts? Massive leverage. None have more than the center-right voter living in a district with an extreme GOP nominee. The ones who stopped the red wave in 2022.
Last year when Perry was up for election, Democrats spent less than $500,000 against him.
The throughline between thwarting Perry and opposing Russia is a short one. America has sent more than $76,000,000,000 in aid to Ukraine. The tiniest fraction of that, and the practice of democracy, may be the best leverage available to the battle between democracy and authoritarianism.