The New York Times posed an essential question this week:
The House battleground map is increasingly filled with alluring possibilities for Democrats as President Trump’s support has cratered. But with their financial resources limited, one question keeps coming up as Democratic strategists puzzle over where to invest during the crucial final four weeks of the campaign.
Do they seek to rent — or own?
National political correspondent Shane Goldmacher goes on to break down those options for the party committees and PACs working to maximize Democratic gains:
Democrats are trying to figure out where their money goes furthest. Are they better off seeking to run up their numbers by competing in less expensive races or for open seats in Republican areas? If they do, they might struggle to hold onto many of those seats in a couple of years, when there is less likelihood of a blue wave.
Or is it a better bet to spend more and go all-in to try to oust a handful of entrenched Republican incumbents who represent more Democratic areas, a difficult path that, if successful, could put those seats in the Democratic column for a longer time.
We offer a third option: back the most valuable candidate - the next Mary Peltola.
The Empty Bench
Do Democrats have a strong bench? We often hear that optimism.
But for the most important candidates - candidates with a proven track record of winning swing voters states with GOP Senators - the pipeline is practically empty.
Republicans hold Senate seats in 27 states, and there are 214 Democrats in the House.
But zero of those 214 Democrats meet the following criteria: under 55 and running for reelection, and represent a Trump district in a state with a Republican Senator.
Zero!
It should not be a surprise that a new organization literally called The Bench is backing two senate candidates in red states who come from state legislatures and one from the pulpit. And then Mary Peltola.
Peltola’s Value
By now, you are likely familiar with the concept of WAR. Borrowed from baseball analytics, Wins Above Replacement seeks to capture the value of a player in terms of the number of wins he delivers beyond the baseline replacement player. WelcomePAC-backed candidates have had the highest WAR of any group over our first two cycles.
But to capture the value of Mary Peltola, who in 2022 at the age of 49, captured the statewide House seat between 10 and 13 point victories by Trump, we cannot look at a single cycle. It is not enough to know that Peltola put up WAR scores of 22 points and 9 points in her House races. Because, as The New York Times articulated, the choice is also about the future.
We have to think like a baseball team allocating resources between different players at different stages. We have to determine the Future Value (FV).
Candidate Quality is Still Underrated
Recent senate polling shows that Democrats are closer in Alaska and Texas - states that Trump won by more than 13 points - than in Maine, which Harris won by 7 points. Candidate quality is clearly very important.
But given the billions of dollars flowing into the late stages of elections, it is still wildly undervalued.
In the Senate, Nate Silver gives Democrats a 63% chance to flip Alaska but just a 14% chance to flip Florida. There is a 50% gap despite both states both voting for Trump by 13 points in 2024.
That 50% - effectively half a Senate seat - is worth many hundreds of millions of dollars.
In 1918, the Red Sox had two corner outfielders who ended the season with similar WAR scores. Harry Hooper, a 31 year old star right fielder, finished with 4.8 WAR. The team’s 23 year old left fielder, who also pitched, finished with 4.7 WAR.
Some winners this cycle will be like Harry Hooper. Others will be like Babe Ruth - and Mary Peltola.
Rent or Buy … or Flip?
There are 50 Senate seats in states that Trump won three times. Democrats currently hold 0 of those 60 seats. The majority of Democrats who won have competitive Senate seats previously held federal or statewide office, building a brand distinct from the national party.
All nine challengers backed by WelcomePAC this cycle are in Trump-won districts in states with a Republican Senator. These are candidates whose value may be in the billions in future cycles, raising the odds of Democratic flips in Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Iowa.