The Adam Frisch Endorsement

Why the guy who came within 546 votes of beating Lauren Boebert in 2022 can flip CO-03 blue this November.

During the 2022 cycle, Welcome identified a top Democratic overperformer when we chose to support Adam Frisch. 

A Welcome candidate through-and-through, Adam’s 2022 race can be seen as a blueprint for competitive races to come – showing up, running as part of Team Normal, and cutting through the partisan noise to speak to what matters most to voters. 

In January 2023, we flew out to Colorado to talk to Adam about the race he ran in Colorado’s third congressional district. We thought it was important to capture the lessons from his decision to run and the way he campaigned, especially in a district that was viewed by pollsters as unwinnable. You can see the lessons yourself in the video here.

Adam is the quintessential Welcome candidate.

Now that Adam scared Boebert out of the 3rd, he is continuing his run in Colorado’s 3rd congressional district, which Trump won by 8 points. 

At first glance, Adam’s challenge this cycle appears to be just outside of the range of districts Democrats can successfully contest. But Adam is one of the Democratic Party’s most powerful over-performers, and we are confident he can bring this district into the Democratic column this cycle. 

Why Adam Frisch Can Win

After shocking the political establishment by coming within a few hundred votes of winning a deep red Trump district, Frisch immediately got to work, building relationships with voters in the district and building an enormous war chest. He currently boasts more than $3.7 million cash on hand. His Republican challenger, Jeff Hurd, has only $220,000.

Frisch has proven brand-differentiated appeal. When Frisch saw Lauren Boebert’s antics, he was motivated to replace her with a member of the “pro-normal” caucus. However, every pundit online and every politico he asked told him the race was unwinnable.

But none of that mattered to Frisch, who ran the numbers and realized he only needed to flip roughly one out of every 20 Trump voters in the district to win the seat. After securing a narrow victory in the Democratic primary, he took his promise on the road, criss-crossing the district and reaching out to voters of all backgrounds and persuasions with a bipartisan promise to restore sanity and common sense.

Not only did Frisch meet CO-03 voters where they were physically, but he met them where they stood ideologically, too. His campaign centered around building a “tri-partisan coalition” of Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans. His website described him as a “patriotic mainstream businessman” with “the experience to work with both parties” on kitchen table issues like inflation, jobs, and public safety and highlighted his endorsement by Boebert’s moderate Republican primary challenger, Don Coram. The result: historic overperformance relative to the top of the ticket. 

The District

If any state is ripe for a pick-up down-ballot, it’s Colorado. Colorado has trended more Democratic than the country for several election cycles, and the state’s libertarian attitudes make it a poor home for MAGA extremism. Trump won the district 52.9% to 44.7% in 2020, while he won it by 53.1% to 39% in 2016, suggesting the district is becoming more competitive. In 2022, Democratic Governor Jared Polis, also seen as a Democratic overperformer, won the district by 2.2 points. And of course, Frisch came within a point of winning this district last cycle, the same year.

Consider the facts about CO-03:

• At the start of the 2022 cycle, it was considered a “Safe Republican” seat by the parties and independent ratings agencies … but it wasn’t. We included it in our quarterly “Conceding Democracy” reports as ignored-but-winnable because of incumbent weaknesses and potentially volatile electorates.

• During the 2022 cycle, CO-03 got $0 from the national parties, but Frisch ran an aggressive independent-themed campaign targeting voters in the middle. Accordingly, we made it one of only two House-specific investments.

• After the 2022 election, Frisch was rated as the number-two overperforming challenger, across all districts in the country, relative to how Democrats were expected to fare. He ran a centrist campaign with ads about how he was a conservative businessman who supports the Second Amendment and wants to secure the border. 

• After declaring another challenge to Boebert in 2023, Frisch raised more money than any other challenger in the country. The fact that Frisch is the number one-fundraiser tells you everything you need to know about where the Democratic “base” actually is. 

Frisch scored the endorsement of the Blue Dog caucus, led by the trio of dynamic rural Democrats who won Trump districts last cycle.

The Republican Challenger 

Jeff Hurd is a pro-life conservative who defended Trump on the day his indictment was announced. He supports a border wall, is against women’s reproductive freedom, and is being backed by the Koch Brothers and their Americans For Prosperity dark money arm.

Join Us

Support Adam Frisch and help him flip CO-03 blue in November via our Win the Middle slate.