The Chart That Made Us Double-Take
Young people are concerned about the price of groceries and energy bills, not student debt and Gaza
A lot of digital pixels have been spilled dissecting the policy preferences of young voters, a bloc that increasingly does not include the not-so-young Obama millennial generation. Even a casual observer has likely heard the following narratives:
Young voters are slipping away from Biden, particularly young voters of color.
Young voters are frustrated by Israel and Gaza and motivated by student debt cancellation.
Over the past few days, there has been growing empirical and statistical evidence that each of these statements is… wrong.
The annual Harvard Institute of Politics (IOP) youth poll – closely watched as a comprehensive barometer of “what the kids think” – finds that student debt cancellation and Israel and Gaza are the least important issues for young voters among the topics listed. It also found that a majority have sympathy for both Israel and Palestine.
The survey, overseen by pollster John Della Volpe (
) finds that among the 18-29 age cohort, pocketbook and digital wallet issues far outweighed the issues that we see on Twitter/X: 64 percent of young voters called inflation their top concern, 59 percent said health care, and 56 percent named housing. Surprisingly, ranked last were Israel/Palestine and student loan debt, clocking in at 34 percent and 26 percent, respectively. (Another issue that dominates so much of the online discourse – free speech – ranks above them as third least important).The chart made us do a double-take: Israel and student debt cancellation, the things we hear most associated with young voters, are the things they care about… the least?!
Enter yet another instance of narrative contortion: the media and the Far Left of the Democratic Party have done a tremendous disservice not only to the overall electorate but to the nation’s youngest voters. By permitting the loudest, shrillest voices to dominate the coverage and conversation with no real statistical basis for granting this outsized megaphone, young voters are painted completely inaccurately and led to believe their peers are concerned about issues that aren’t actually top-of-mind. The chart disproves a false narrative that young voters are fleeing Biden because he is not sufficiently to the left on hot-button issues.
Among other issues that dwarf younger voters’ concerns with those polling around 30 percent are areas in which Biden has an irrefutably strong record: jobs at 53 percent, protecting democracy at 52 percent, and women’s reproductive rights at 50 percent.
These results track closely with what the polling group Blueprint has found: In their polling, far more young voters say that Biden’s accomplishments on health care and the deficit have done more to improve their lives than the policies the administration has been touting, like student debt cancellation and electric vehicle subsidies.
The Harvard/IOP survey also finds that young people are not fully on board with liberals on immigration:
A majority (53%) of young Americans — including at least a plurality of every significant subgroup — believe that the United States is experiencing an immigration crisis at the Southern border; only 16% disagree with this notion, while 29% neither agree nor disagree.
Blueprint polling similarly finds strong youth voter support for more funding for border security.
The Harvard/IOP poll also finds that the young voters who are most likely to show up are also the young voters who are most like to be supportive of Biden:
Among young Americans under 30, President Biden leads former President Trump by eight percentage points; among likely voters, Biden's lead expands to 19 points.
And casts doubt on the idea that Black and Hispanic youth are abandoning the party:
President Biden's lead among white voters is 3 points; among non-white voters, his lead is 43 points.
In addition, recent data from Pew and the polling averages suggest that Biden’s weakness among voters of color is being strongly overstated by the media. Here again, though, to the extent that Biden has troubles, they lie in voters of color seeing him as too far left, not too far right.
It’s time for a reality check on young people. They simply aren’t Far Left, but rather, they are independents who need to be courted in the same manner in which we win over older independents: by focusing on mainstream issues like lowering healthcare costs, bringing down the price of – well – everything, and protecting reproductive rights.
Let’s put an end to the online obsession over Ivy League protestors and start paying attention to the actual lived experiences of young people frustrated by high costs of living. As we called for last week, it’s time Biden focuses on voters – of all ages – in the center.
Excellent piece! This is the Achilles heel of online discourse - when you really drill into it (as you've done here), young people - or really any broad demographic subgroup, really - are mostly just normies! That's the beginning of wisdom in thinking about appealing to them.