Thankfully, we’ve got 50 weeks ahead without having to see my least favorite genre of political headline: “How to Argue at Thanksgiving.”
There is one piece of research nugget about that topic worth pondering, though. Turns out that the surest way to avoid a political argument at Thanksgiving is … traffic.
Distance traveled for Thanksgiving is negatively correlated with familial political disagreements, which means that people who travel the longest for Thanksgiving fight the least.
Sacrifice has a way of sharpening priorities.
Travel time serves as a reminder of what’s important. Those hours in traffic or pulling your laptop out at a TSA line primes you to savor time with family more than partisan point-scoring.
A similar dynamic is at work in Congress. Those who sacrificed the most to get there seem most focused on getting the most important things done.
What is Jared Golden worth?
We have been asking that question for four years as a thought experiment to understand how to get more Democrats in Trump districts.
Dollars are what we had in mind: Figure out how much it’s worth to have a candidate who holds a district Trump wins (by ten points, in Golden’s case) and you know what you’d be willing to invest for a program that delivers a 10% greater chance of yielding one.
In 2022’s Are Democrats Conceding Democracy, we asked if Democrats were giving up in the “Golden Zone:”
These slightly-red districts — salmon or light coral colored on the partisan rainbow — are important because Democrats like Jared Golden (ME-02) have proven them winnable by building independent brands that appeal to center-right swing voters. With the right candidates and resources, Democrats can win in the “Golden Zone”: districts where Trump got less than 54% and Jared Golden-level over-performance would deliver a win.
As years pass, we have made progress in answering that question to understand how Democrats can stretch the map.
But a more basic question looms.
What is it worth to Jared Golden?
Golden’s resignation op-ed is worth reading in full, via The Bangor Daily News. The most consistent winner of the past decade saw the rising cost of winning:
I don’t fear losing. What has become apparent to me is that I now dread the prospect of winning. Simply put, what I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son.
To get more Jared Goldens, people like Jared Golden - selfless, humble public servants with their priorities in order - need to view the sacrifice as worth it. And things are trending in the opposite direction.
Back to Golden:
Whoever wins will have a tough road ahead. I have spent almost eight years in Congress opposing the forces of polarization. This is critical to fair leadership in a district like Maine’s 2nd, where robust ideological diversity requires elected officials who are willing to represent the district as it truly exists — not as their party’s most vocal extremes might wish it did.
It’s also a moral imperative, because polarization tends to move in only one direction …
I fear Democrats are going down the same path. We’re allowing the most extreme, pugilistic elements of our party to call the shots. Just look again at the shutdown. For as long as I can remember, we have opposed shutting down the government over policy disputes. We criticized Republicans for taking hostages this way. But this year, reeling from the losses of the last election, too many Democrats have given into demands that we use the same no-holds barred, obstructionary tactics as the GOP.
All of this is a symptom of the larger challenge of our political culture, where social media algorithms fuel division and turn it into corporate profits; public figures weaponize our disagreements and vilify their fellow Americans; and gerrymandered districts leave most politicians more beholden to their out-of-touch base than to the average family.
Luckily, while powerful special interests are pushing us further apart, most Americans are not hyperpartisans. In this district, as competitive as it is, it remains true that most people are neither diehard right-wingers or resistance progressives.
Running for office in a swing district is far more costly to human beings than coasting to re-election in a safe seat. That is true not only for the candidate but for their family and staff. The most wrenching part of Golden’s op-ed is a reminder that his family spent last Thanksgiving in a hotel after a death threat.
I still believe, perhaps more than ever, that politics can be a positive force. But having devoted decades of my life to service, I look forward to my next chapter: raising my young daughters with Izzy — who has shouldered more than her fair share of caring for our family and our home for years — and spending more time with our family and friends.
Thanks, Jared
Days after Jared’s announcement, his roommate Rep. Jake Auchincloss took to The Boston Globe to shake his fellow Democrats to understand why this was such a big deal:
It’s the right decision for him and his family, but it’s a loss for Congress and the country. Democrats should be seeking out more candidates like Jared to run for office at all levels. His emotional connection to disengaged voters, his authentic approach, and, most of all, his willingness to buck party orthodoxy make him a model for Democrats in districts that the party needs to win back.
But that requires Democratic activists and elites to stop deriding his Blue Dog approach. Blue Dogs are Democrats who tend to be debt and defense hawks, social moderates, and, increasingly, economic populists. There are few in Congress. But they win.
Like spending more time in traffic for a healthier family holiday, these candidates who win in Trump districts behold a counterintuitive truth. Candidates with the right priorities and willingness to sacrifice are appealing enough to voters to win, but those same attributes make public service less alluring in an era of toxic polarization.
So what is Jared Golden worth?
As a candidate, hundreds of millions of dollars.
As an exemplar and wakeup call, he’s priceless.
The system must change, and, for that, Jared Golden is both a model and a motivator.
I hope the Goldens had a much better Thanksgiving this year.
And hope the distance we’re willing to travel — in politics and in life — extends far enough to give us the right priorities. And to get us back in the Golden Zone.