The GOP’s Gerrymander Gamble
The Republican efforts to gerrymander show they don't have confidence in their own agenda
Redrawing of maps and gerrymandering has become one of the hottest political topics of the summer. Entering the 2026 cycle, just one state was expected to redraw their maps. Ohio is legally required to redraw their maps based on a clause in the Ohio State Constitution that mandates maps be redrawn after four years if they were not passed on a bipartisan basis.
Beyond that, not a lot of action was expected outside of a court challenge. That is because the bulk of redistricting takes place every 10 years following the Census and reapportionment. That norm was shattered earlier this month when Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced, at the urging of President Trump, a special session of the Texas legislature to take up mid-cycle redistricting in an attempt to create more Republican seats heading into the 2026 midterms.
As Liam wrote a few weeks ago in a piece about the Texas gerrymander, the Welcome team has two optimistic hypotheses when it comes to Democrats’ chances of winning the House in 2026 (which currently sit at 68%):
First, the betting markets are realizing what we’ve been pitching for four years: amid intense political polarization, voters are still volatile and the political chattering class is overly confident in its predictions. See: here, here, and here.
Second, candidates really matter!! A few good Senate candidates can juice the odds, and a full slate of strong House candidates - including in stretch districts - is needed to keep GOP odds lower in the lower chamber.
But here’s a problematic third factor contributing to higher GOP odds in the House: gerrymandering is driving up the GOP’s odds of keeping the House.
But they are also driving up the odds of a dummymander. And we need more groups focusing on the dummymanders.
Texas proved that third factor to be true with the release of their new map yesterday, which could potentially net Republicans 4-5 seats in the midterms. This map could change as it winds through the legislative process, but according to Punchbowl's initial analysis:
Democrats have declared that Republicans are at grave risk of spreading their voters too thin and creating districts that could flip blue in a bad year for Republicans. This kind of redraw is known as a “dummymander.”
Republicans feel their map avoids that outcome. They expect that every seat that Trump carried with at least 60% of the vote under the current Texas map will remain at that margin or better under the new map.
Trump won all the GOP-held seats or expected pickups by 10 points or more in 2024. GOP Reps. Beth Van Duyne and Troy Nehls will likely see the partisan voter indexes of their districts increase, while those of Reps. Tony Gonzales and Monica De La Cruz will stay roughly the same.
We’ve got a few details on how Republicans expect the five new red districts to look:
– One new seat will have a PVI of R+7. Trump won it by nearly 16 points.
– One new seat will have a PVI of R+3. Trump won it by 10 points.
– One new seat will have a PVI of R+8. Trump won it by nearly 18 points.
– Two new seats will have a PVI of R+4. Trump won them both by 10 points.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) would have carried all five of these seats, while Gov. Greg Abbott would have won four of them.
At first glance, it may look like Republicans would sweep these seats. However, look closer, and they are not in as good of a position as they’ll make it out to be. Given the expected favorable environment for Democrats, their performances in special elections so far this year, and Trump’s declining favorability among voters, most of these seats may be in play and should be contested. As political analyst and Split Ticket CEO Lakshya Jain has been saying, anything that Trump won by 15 should be on Democrats’ target list.
It is not unprecedented for Democrats to compete and win in these types of “red” seats, and with the right candidates, they can win. Mary Peltola came into Congress by winning an R+8 seat in Alaska, and Jared Golden has continued to win in what was an R+6 seat.
There is no reason why Dems should not be contesting all of these seats, especially the 4 that are R+7 and under.
What’s Next?
Texas’ actions could be just the start of what may be multiple new maps across the country, most of which will likely favor Republicans, though Democrats have some opportunities to retaliate.
As mentioned, Ohio will have a new map for 2026. Given the trifecta Republicans have in Columbus, it is widely expected that Republicans will try to make the current 10-5 delegation in favor of the GOP into a 12-3 (or even a 13-2) split, netting 2-3 seats for Republicans.
Florida is the other big state that could net multiple seats for Republicans. The current 20-8 GOP split could add a handful more red seats depending on how aggressive Gov. Ron DeSantis (who has already floated new maps) and the state legislature want to be in adding a few additional seats for Republicans.
Democratic-controlled states like California and New York have indicated that they would respond in kind if/when Texas moves forward with their plans. However, California has a state constitutional amendment that created an independent redistricting commission, so any changes to maps would almost certainly face roadblocks and court challenges. If California is able to pass a new map, it may be possible to net 6 new seats for Democrats, creating a 49-3 split among the delegation.
New York would face similar challenges, as their constitution bans mid-cycle redistricting without a court order (they just redrew their maps ahead of 2024 due to a court order). There are a number of legal and legislative avenues New York could take in an attempt to redraw before 2026, but it would be a heavy lift.
Outside of these big states, there are more opportunities for Republicans than there are for Democrats, should they choose to redraw. Republicans may be able to squeeze 1-2 seats out of states like Missouri, Kansas, Indiana, North Carolina, and even New Hampshire, whereas Democrats are more limited in the options, looking at places like Maryland, and states with court-drawn maps like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
What does all of this mean?
Gerrymandering may be redrawing the political map, but it doesn’t have to redraw the outcome if Democrats respond strategically. While Republicans are using mid-cycle redistricting to create more favorable maps, this type of overreach can easily backfire, especially in a cycle that could be 6-8 points more favorable for Democrats. The emerging “dummymanders” in Texas and Ohio and potentially other states like Florida aren’t just attempts to pad margins, they’re signs of vulnerability. If you need to cheat the system, what does that say about how you're governing and what you think about your prospects in 2026?
Instead of retreating or waiting on courts, Democrats should go on offense —especially in these newly-created red seats. With the right candidates and messages, the same volatility that makes gerrymandering tempting can make it dangerous for those who push it too far. Republicans may end up spreading themselves too thin, and districts they redraw today could flip blue in 2026.
This is a moment for action, not hand-wringing. We can’t control the maps, but we can control the organizing. If we meet this moment with ambition and urgency, we can turn a GOP power play into a Democratic over-performance.