The Joe Reagan Endorsement
Joe Reagan is the veteran who can flip CO-05 blue in November as challengers vie for a new open seat.
In the 2022 election cycle, Welcome identified the top Democratic overperformers when we supported Will Rollins and Adam Frisch. Since then, we’ve worked to perfect a formula for how Democrats can take on and beat MAGA incumbents in districts that the party’s formal machinery doesn’t deem competitive. Give or take a few elements, we’ve found that this formula boils down to three critical components: a center-right district, a villainous extremist Republican, and a dynamic moderate Democratic challenger who elevates all that is wrong with MAGA – and right with Democrats.
U.S. Army combat veteran Joe Reagan running in Colorado’s 5th congressional district is another 2024 candidate who fits the Welcome mold.
As the only candidate in the race with military experience running in a district that’s home to Fort Carson, Peterson Space Force Base, Schriever Space Force Base and the United States Air Force Academy, Joe stands out as one who knows how to best serve veterans and military families in CO-05.
We’re proud to add him to this year’s Win The Middle slate as he takes on a progressive Democratic primary challenger endorsed by the Working Families Party and looks to keep a MAGA extremist out of Congress in November.
At first glance, CO-05 appears to be just outside of the range of districts Democrats can successfully contest (Trump won it by 10 points). But now that Republican Rep. Doug Lamborn’s retirement has left the seat up for grabs, Joe running as a moderate candidate in a purple district makes this a seat worth investing in.
Welcome Track Record of Picking Overperformers And Our Process
Welcome has an excellent track record of finding the races that pundits and race-raters miss. In 2022, we targeted two races, Colorado’s 3rd and California’s 41st — districts that pundits and race-raters said were “safe” Republican seats. We recognized that the incumbents, Lauren Boebert and Ken Calvert, are embracing the politics of the extremist right, which don’t represent the interests or sentiments of their constituents.
Adam Frisch and Will Rollins are two moderate, pragmatic Democrats committed to welcoming people into the Democratic coalition – not to turning voters away with purity-test politics. With strong candidates like them, these districts became tightly contested battlegrounds. Frisch’s strong performance led Boebert to seek employment elsewhere in a more reliably Republican district, while CA-41 has become one of the most closely contested races in the country.
This year, we put together a group of advisers from the center-left and right. We solicited input from dozens of practitioners and analysts. We pored over national data and talked to on-the-ground experts to deepen our analysis of the races. We followed local media to determine which incumbents were getting out of touch with their districts.
We look for those aforementioned criteria as we continue to build out our slate of endorsements for the 2024 cycle:
Under-the-radar districts. It’s a fact: politicos understate the variance in politics. This leaves them vulnerable to missing districts that are outside of the traditional bounds of party competition, races like Boebert’s and Calvert’s as well as Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s Washington seat.
Non-traditional Democrats who welcome independents and moderates. The theory that you can “mobilize” your way to victory has been a proven failure everywhere it has been tried. The path to victory is distinguishing yourself from the national brand of the Democratic Party and welcoming moderate Republicans and independents into the anti-authoritarian coalition.
Extremist incumbents. To pull moderate voters into the Democratic Party, we need a push in the form of extremist Republicans. That’s why we look for Republicans who are out of touch with their voters, pushing voters to consider moderate options. Rendering themselves even more beatable, extremists like Lauren Boebert have made the districts they represent ripe for disruption with their antics.
Colorado’s 5th has these crucial components.
Why Joe Reagan Can Overperform
Joe Reagan has dedicated his career to serving others. After 9/11, he joined the U.S. Army from Norwich University, the oldest private military school in the country. Joe served two combat tours in Afghanistan. He was injured by a suicide bomber during his first tour, his life saved by an Afghan guard. Post-combat, he transitioned to intelligence, focusing on global threats like China's influence and Russia's aggression. After leaving active duty, Joe earned an MBA from the University of Virginia and worked across industries in healthcare, technology, national security and nonprofits, all with a strong focus on supporting veterans and working families. His awards include the Purple Heart, Meritorious Service Medal, Bronze Star, Combat Infantryman’s Badge, Norwich University's Sustained Service Award and the National Intelligence Meritorious Unit Citation.
Joe is the only candidate in the race (on both the Republican and Democratic sides) with military experience in a district that is home to one of the largest installments of military families in the country in the Colorado Springs metro. In the district’s Democratic primary next month, Joe is running against a progressive candidate endorsed by the Working Families Party.
The District
Colorado’s 5th is rapidly shifting in a more Democratic direction. In 2016, Trump won the district by 21.8 points. In 2020, he won by only 10 points, a 10 point swing. Polis lost the district by only 3.1 points in 2022. In 2023, Independent Yemi Mobolade was elected as the first non-Republican mayor of Colorado Springs. If this shift continues, Democrats could miss an opportunity as no major Democratic institutions are currently planning to invest in the district.
The Opponents
Joe is anticipating a match-up this fall against MAGA extremist Dave Williams, who was barred from the ballot in 2022 because a judge ruled he could not list his name as Dave “Let’s Go Brandon” Williams.
Williams is currently the chair of the Colorado Republican Party, and fellow Republicans have condemned him for ejecting journalists from GOP events and using his position as chair to try to usher himself into Congress. Mr. Go Brandon has bragged about having Trump’s number saved in his phone, has allegedly using the state party’s email list to announce his campaign for Congress, and spent party money to purchase mailers that included an attack on his GOP opponent.
Republican challenger Jeff Crank is yet another far-right extremist. A highlight from a recent debate hits the tenor of the discourse:
"Get your kids out of public school right now," he said, addressing the audience. "Home-school them."
Crank, meanwhile, said he would push to abolish several federal agencies and programs, including the U.S. Department of Education.
When a congressional district has moved 10 points to the center in the last election, these are not the type of front-runners a party wants to see.
Join Us
Dave “Let’s Go Brandon” Williams is an extreme MAGA who has no business being an elected member of Congress. Joe Reagan is a legitimate, healthy-for-democracy challenger, and flawed Republicans can put the unlikely within reach.
You can contribute to Joe Reagan via our Win the Middle slate.