The other “Centrist Insurgency” in NY
Election night watching WelcomePAC investment in John Avlon and multiple Colorado races
Pundits have focused their attention on Jamaal Bowman’s potential defeat as the best story for centrists (we chimed in too). But a more important story is occurring on Long Island: centrist superstar John Avlon competing with proven underperformer Nancy Goroff for the chance to take on Nick LaLota in New York’s 1st Congressional District.
WelcomePAC was proud to invest $2 million to back Avlon against Goroff for two reasons:
Moneyballing a higher-ROI investment than most general election spending to increase the chance Democrats can win this seat and take back the House. A significant investment was warranted because Avlon was running against a self-funding former nominee, making outside support crucial for the first-time candidate. And the expected value is high:
We estimate an Avlon victory would give Democrats a roughly 25% chance to win this seat versus 5% with Goroff.
We estimate the value of durably flipping a US House seat at $100m.
Avlon winning the primary is worth 0.2 x $100 million = $20 million.
Elevating a potential centrist superstar who can not only “Win The Middle” voters on Long Island in November, but be a forcefully eloquent spokesperson knocking Democrats back to their senses in DC - and showing the media and electorate a pragmatic party.
Polls close at 9pm EST in New York, but they count slowly. So expect to hear results earlier in mail-heavy Colorado, where polls close at 7pm MT. Keep an eye out for depolarizing Coloradans Adam Frisch and Joe Reagan, and another eye on their potential GOP opponents in vulnerable ultra-MAGA primary candidates Ron Hanks and Dave Williams.
Moneyballing moderates to the forefront of frontier districts
Tonight’s win follows a series of successes ensuring moderates represent the Democratic Party in November, including Janelle Bynum in Oregon’s 5th against extremist Jamie McLeod-Skinner.
According to the modeling from SplitTicket, Democrats have only a 13% chance of flipping this race. But race-raters have been wrong before and we’ve been right before. With Avlon as the nominee, Democrats can meaningfully contest LaLota. While Goroff clung to a strategy of mobilizing a mythical “base,” Avlon has been focused on winning the middle, something necessary in a swinging area like Long Island.
Goroff’s past results speak for themselves. The self-funding millionaire was the Democratic nominee in 2020, and lost by 10 points in a district that Biden only lost by 4 points on the same ballot (in the district’s previous boundaries).
Elevating eloquent spokespeople for the centrist insurgency
Avlon could fill a vacuum within the Democratic Party if it regains balance and chooses to – by sticking resolutely to policy positions that entice the electorate's middle plurality instead of repelling it – continue winning elections. Like other centrists who have found success in the Biden Era, he navigates and articulates policy with an eye on moderation rather than polarization; unlike the others, he arrived with a nationally recognizable voice after years as a CNN analyst.
And, unlike some other media-pedigreed candidates, Avlon packs an intellectual punch, authoring several books including canary-in-the-coal-mine tract on "How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America" – way back in 2010, before the hijacking was complete.
Avlon’s book about the “lunatic fringe,” Wingnuts, is an in-depth exploration of how the polarizing extremes are destroying American politics, and his experience researching the Tea Party and 9/11 Truthers has prepared him better than most for the MAGA era. He’s committed to winning the middle, focused on public safety and a centrist approach to immigration. Avlon wrote speeches for Mayor Rudy Guilani before the former mayor’s more recent descent into the type of “wingut” politics Avlon has written on. Avlon has been inspired by Tom Suozzi, who won a solid victory running to the center on immigration and criminal justice.
Avlon isn’t just a candidate who can win the middle – he’s also a candidate who can stand up for centrist values and moderate politics if he wins his race for the House this fall.
ABOUT WELCOMEPAC
The New York Times called WelcomePAC a “Centrist Insurgency,” after launching in 2022 to win the middle. After identifying and supporting the top-two overperforming MAGA-challengers of the 2022 cycle, WelcomePAC’s Win The Middle slate has expanded in 2024.
Learn more at WelcomePAC.org and read analysis from the front lines of the center left at WelcomeStack.org.
Another "centrist insurgency"race to watch is Don Samuels's primary challenge of Ilhan Omar in Minnesota CD5. Polls show them neck-and-neck at 41% each. She is very unpopular in the the Minneapolis suburbs. Last cycle, Don lost to her by 2% and she's even more unpopular now for many of the same reasons that Jamaal Bowman is. I'm working on Don's campaign and watching the race closely. Feel free to reach out to me if you want more info and to talk to campaign staff.