The Progressive Paradox

Progressive Caucus still freaky in the tweets, but pragmatic to compete

At Welcome, we have a promise: we’re online so you don’t have to be. We did catch a Twitter (X?) feud that merits comment: Will Stancil and Matt Yglesias dishing it out on popularism. Stancil tweeted that people who support the theory of “popularism” had “failed completely and utterly” and “was wrong about everything.” Yglesias proposed a cease fire writing:

“Happy to declare peace in the popularism wars on the basis of: 

— We were completely discredited and wrong about everything 

— For unrelated reasons, nobody anymore thinks it’s a good idea to run on legalizing illegal entry and banning private health insurance.”

Ygleisas’s tongue in cheek response hits on a key point. Last Thursday, the Congressional Progressive Caucus released a litany of policy goals that, surprisingly, mark a pivot toward a more pragmatic approach from the progressive wing of the party. Gone are the calls for socialized healthcare and defunding the police that were common during the 2020 lurch left.

Here’s how NBC described it:

The agenda is also notable for what’s not included. “Medicare for All,” a rallying cry of the left for years, is excluded. Foreign policy issues like Israel and Gaza, which have sparked fiery pro-Palestinian protests across the country, are also kept out. Jayapal said that’s partly because the caucus decided to make it a domestic-issue-only blueprint and partly out of pragmatism — to focus more on unifying issues for Democrats and steer clear of the ones that divide them.

This document marks a key moment: progressives quietly acknowledge that extreme slogans like “defund the police” only motivate our opponents and won’t ever come to pass, as Yglesias noted. However, progressives have not walked away from other electoral theories. Yet, in a statement accompanying the release, Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Pramila Jayapal said:

“We have to excite our base. We have to show them what the path forward is — not just say, ‘This is the most important election of your life, and we expect you to vote.’ I don’t think that’s going to turn people out. And so I think this agenda, really, speaks to the needs of poor people, working people, progressives across the country who want us to make that case to them,” Jayapal said.

The progressive pitch in 2020 was to sell a giant wishlist and claim that wishlist would motivate voters to the polls come November. Progressives are backtracking on advancing unfeasible ideas, but curiously, still claiming their turnout argument. So the question is, what changed? Why is Medicare for All no longer a rallying cry for our base? And if we don’t actually need Medicare for All to rally our “base,” what other policies will be quickly jettisoned come next cycle? 

What Happened to 2020?

Making empty promises for radical policy change that won’t occur doesn’t excite anyone beyond financially invested interest groups. Voters aren’t dumb — they aren’t going to vote for things that won’t happen. So let’s promise what we can do: stop Trump from further eroding our democracy and rule of law, strengthen health care protections, and prevent Trump from indefinitely extending his tax cuts for the rich. 

Our base is worried about the threat of authoritarianism, the end of abortion choice, and the extremist agenda Trump wants to put into place. That’s what excites them and what stirs them into action. 

Now, we have to nail down what exactly wins the middle. 

Political science research shows that extremist candidates (like Trump) suffer an electoral penalty because they mobilize voters who are opposed to their extreme policies. 

There is an argument from the Far Left - that we described in Bad Math or Bad Intentions - that defines swing voters as base voters. In the words of Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal, the choice is not between Biden and Trump but between Biden and The Couch:

But the polling shows this is simply not true. 

Biden won millions of voters in 2020 who voted for Trump in 2016. Now, those voters are considering Trump again, and we need to win them. 

As a correction, it’s actually not Democratic voters who are choosing the couch: Democratic turnout has been through the roof in special elections, and polling shows that the most motivated voters are the most pro-Biden. Rather, it is Republicans who might choose the comfort of the couch. 

The Progressive Caucus has taken the welcome step of giving up on Medicare for All and other pipe dreams. But it’s time they finally reject the flawed turnout mythology. Persuasion is real, and Democrats need to do it to win in 2024.