What About Wu?

The New York Times conjured up a Bernie rally in Boston, but it was Charlie Baker fans who sent a progressive-who-didn’t-need-progressives to City Hall.

“What about Wu?” a reader queried after reading our Massachusetts case study comparing (unpopular) Senator Elizabeth Warren and (very popular) Governor Maura Healey.

The reference to Boston Mayor Michelle Wu makes for a good question.

National media would lead you to believe that Wu’s mayoral win was just another step in the march towards far-left domination of the Democratic Party. This New York Magazine headline from May hyping the far-left candidate in the recent Philadelphia election is typical: 

The accompanying article opens by stating if “Helen Gym wins Tuesday's Democratic primary in Philadelphia, the city will join Boston, Chicago…” as part of the “progressive takeover.”

The New York Times offered similar analysis, explicitly linking Wu’s victory with endorsements from Bernie Sanders, teacher unions, the Working Families Party, and AOC:

Nearly two years ago, left-wing Democrats were bitterly disappointed by New York, as the relatively moderate Eric Adams swept into Gracie Mansion on a message of law and order.

But since then, mayoral candidates identified with the more liberal wing of the party have notched other notable victories, including Michelle Wu in Boston …

The Philadelphia mayor’s race offers the next significant, if imperfect, citywide test of progressive power. Some of the same players who engaged in other key races — including Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, teachers’ union activists and organizations like the Working Families Party — are backing Ms. Gym.

That makes for a nice and clean narrative: there are plenty of pictures of AOC and Sanders with the far-left candidates in Chicago and Philadelphia — and plenty of stories about how teachers unions powered Brandon Johnson's victory.

The only problem? 

None of the above endorsed Wu, much less campaigned with her.

Bernie Sanders? Did not endorse (Wu campaigned for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 primary).

AOC? Did not endorse. 

The Boston Teachers Union? They haven’t donated to Wu since 2019 — a year where the Boston Police Patrolmen's PAC also donated to her city council campaign.

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Wu Broadened Appeal Beyond the Far-left Fifth

In blue cities around the country, mayoral candidates have been endorsed by Bernie Sanders and AOC. And those candidates repeatedly demonstrate the narrow appeal of that disruptive and uncompromising far-left variant of progressivism.

In contrast to headlines chronicling a “progressive takeover” of blue cities, the reality is quite different. A recent Win The Middle case study compiled the data showing the far-left lane is good for about 20% of the vote in blue cities around the country. From The Far-Left Fifth:

Recent election results show that even in the bluest battlegrounds, the far-left faction only appeals to 1 in 5 voters. Take the 2023 Philadelphia and Chicago mayoral contests and the 2021 New York City mayoral race, where far-left leaders such as Sanders and AOC were highly engaged, drumming up support online and hosting lively GOTV rallies.

• Philadelphia: 21.3% voted for Helen Gym in Democratic primary (87% of vote reported)

• Chicago: 21.6% voted for Brandon Johnson in the first round of nonpartisan election

• New York City: 21.4% voted for Maya Wiley in the first round of Democratic Primary

How did Wu fare in the first round of Boston’s voting without rallies with far-left celebrities? Far better than the rally headliners, at more than 33% of the vote in a crowded field.

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Big Tent Beats Empty Threats

Wu has been straddling the line between progressive superstar and pragmatic leader since her first campaign — and first action as a councilor when progressive activists attacked her vote for a moderate council president. As covered in this 2014 Boston Globe story, Wu’s own husband told some tough truths about how her appeal extends beyond the leftist echo chamber:

Wu’s husband, Ward 4 Democratic Committee chairman Conor Pewarski, poured salt in the wound Thursday when he took to Twitter in an attempt to defend his wife, seemingly arguing that she does not need progressive support.

“Delete all Wu votes from “progressive” wards 4, 5,11,19 and Wu still wins by over 14,000 votes.” Pewarski wrote in a tweet Thursday afternoon, adding: “#YouDontOwnWu.”

The Boston Globe article kicker, quoting a critic:

“Unless [Wu] changes her mind around this vote, she’s done … She’s a one-term city councilor.”

Wu did not change her mind, and went on to top the ticket in 2017 and 2019 (Boston elects four at-large councilors).

Seven years later, she was sworn in as mayor with 64% of the vote. 

What voters drove Wu beyond the low ceiling of the far-left fifth? Not voters who follow Bernie or AOC, but appreciated Republican Governor Charlie Baker. As leading nonpartisan pollster MassINC’s mayoral poll found:

Wu’s lead was larger among voters who were favorable to Republican Charlie Baker (61%-25%) than among the electorate overall. 66% of Wu’s primary voters had also had a favorable view of Baker.

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Pragmatic, Progressive, and Popular Can Coexist

Nationally, polarization professionals divide Americans into rigid — and warring — ideological camps, despite an abundance of real-world election data showing that the electorate is far less polarized (and far more volatile) than they claim.

Many try to do the same within the Democratic Party, distorting data to overhype the electoral strength of the far-left.

Did Wu work for Elizabeth Warren, endorse her for president, and support a Green New Deal? Yes. 

Did Wu also work for Boston Consulting Group, run a campaign as a business owner focused on cutting red tape, and recently veto a city council budget that would have defunded the police? Yes.

Political science is clear that moderate candidates do better. Polling — in Massachusetts, and around the country — shows very few voters are on the far-left. As do election results, even in big cities.

As the party of science, Democrats should heed these lessons. 

But it is also true that every case is different.

Case studies like Wu’s may be more helpful than hard and fast rules. They can illuminate that ideology is not a binary. Labels like “progressive,” “moderate,” and “conservative” are useful distinctions, but not determinative.

There are many ways to be a “progressive” in the same way that there are many ways to be a “conservative” — a banner flown proudly by everyone from our anti-Trump GOP allies at The Bulwark to the most Trump-loving Jan. 6th rioters.

There are also many ways to be popular — and unpopular. The far-left is only a fifth of blue city voters, but expanding beyond that is a lesson self-styled progressives can learn too.

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Case Study Continues

So what about Wu’s future? Will she be a popular mainstream leader like Healey, or take the divisive, unpopular path of Warren? 

Wu made a major misstep in 2022, picking the Warren faction over the Healey faction in the Commonwealth's most contested race, for Attorney General. The results demonstrated the power of Healey and her pick for AG, Andrea Campbell. They became what the Boston Globe called “The State’s New Political Power Duo.”

This race was telling … It pitted the clout and coattails of Healey against those of Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and US Senator Elizabeth Warren. 

… there’s a new Democratic team on top in Massachusetts — and that’s Maura Healey and Andrea Campbell.

Wu must have aced her BCG case interview to get her first job. To get her next big job, she’ll need to become a Win The Middle case study.

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