What Is Electability?

James Carville, Elaine Kamarck, and Jackie Payne join Sarah McCammon to discuss electability, moderate women, and why the first woman president will probably be a veteran

James Carville started off the WelcomeFest electability panel with a clear message, telling the audience: “First of all, I am not a centrist Democrat. Let me be clear. I’m a winning Democrat. My philosophy is winning.”

Sarah McCammon of Third Way moderated, joined by James Carville, Elaine Kamarck of Brookings, and Jackie Payne of Galvanize Action. They agreed on one key premise: Democrats keep relitigating questions the electorate has already answered about electability.

The myth hasn’t changed.

McCammon opened by asking Kamarck, co-author of the 1989 “Politics of Evasion,” which myths Democrats are believing now. The answer was the same one she diagnosed 37 years ago:

“There’s a belief out there, particularly in our brothers and sisters on the left wing of our party, that somehow if only we were more pure in our radicalism, more pure in our left wingism, that there would be millions of people who never voted for us who would suddenly come to the polls. That has never happened, and I can safely predict it’s not going to happen. This is a center-right country, and until the Democratic Party really internalizes that, we’re going to win sometimes when the other party screws up.”

Carville’s reaction was visible enough from the stage that McCammon called it out.

“I gag at the thought that there are untapped, unresolved people just waiting for the bugle of true progressivism. Every time they go find out who the 50 million are, more of them vote for Republicans than vote for us.”

Fifty million moderate white women, and they think both parties are corrupt.

Payne has spent nine years at Galvanize Action researching moderate women, with a specialty in moderate white women, who will be key to determining the outcome of the upcoming midterm election.

“There are almost 50 million moderate white women in this country right now. If you look at the toss-up races, they are 24% or more of the vote share in a large number of those toss-ups. So if you don’t understand what’s going on with moderate women, you’re not serious about winning.”

The numbers she brought are the affordability story, plus a corruption story that should worry Democrats.

“About 80% say they are worried about corruption right now. And the bad news for Democrats is it’s not just Republicans they think are corrupt. 66% of them disapprove of President Trump, but 76% of them disapprove of Congress, and 57% say they disapprove of both Democrats and Republicans. They do not feel like there is a party for them right now.”

She also reported that 73% plan to turn out in the midterms, and 22% of those don’t yet know who they’re voting for.

Harris didn’t lose because she was a woman.

Asked directly whether gender cost Democrats 2024, Payne said no, and pointed to the movement among the voters most often blamed.

“Sexism exists out in the world with voters and in this room. But Harris did not lose because she was a woman. If you look at white non-college women, they moved four points to the left. More of them voted for Harris than voted for Biden.”

The obstacle she identified is upstream of the electorate.

“The real problem with women getting elected is not the voters. It is the gatekeepers, the donors who don’t invest in women early because they’re asking this question: can a woman win?”

Check the strength box, then talk about affordability.

Payne’s framework was the most portable thing on the panel. Strength isn’t the message, but it’s something Democrats want to hear from Democrats before they listen to the rest of the message.

“What has been going on with Spanberger and Slotkin and Sherrill, they are using their military backgrounds to check the box. You can trust that I’m strong enough. And when that box is checked, voters turn to: now, are you going to focus on affordability? Do you care about me? And are you competent enough to get things done?”

Kamarck took the same logic to the presidency, which she argued is a different office than any other Democrats run for.

“The first female president of the United States will be a decorated combat veteran. Decorated combat veteran. Because nothing short of that gets you past the notion that women are not strong. The presidency is different because it’s not just strength in the American context, it’s strength in the entire world.”

One thing to get right.

McCammon closed by asking each panelist for the one thing a 2028 woman nominee has to get right.

Payne: “Focus on affordability and say you’re against corruption. That’s who’s going to win.”

Kamarck: “Be strong.”

Carville: “I’m not a criminal.”