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What Should We Make of the Midterm Polling?

A conversation with TLV and Patrick Ruffini.

The Long View was delighted to host pollster and friend Patrick Ruffini today for a wide-ranging conversation. Ruffini and TLV’s Ruy Teixeira covered a host of topics, including:

  • Methodological questions about the midterm polls

  • Differences between key election models and forecasts

  • Possible outcomes for the midterm elections

  • Whether a good midterm for Democrats complicates the “realignment” thesis

  • The rise of the DSA in the Democratic Party

  • In what direction the Democrats and Republicans might go in 2028

And much more. We greatly enjoyed the conversation with Patrick. Be sure to check out his work with his polling firm, Echelon Insights, as well as other original analysis on his Substack, The Intersection.

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