Why Will Rollins Overperformed
Will Rollins shows the Welcome model in action
Welcome supports centrist candidates who can overperform the partisan fundamentals of their districts by contrasting with extreme incumbents and welcoming voters into the Democratic Party. Will Rollins exemplifies this ethos. His candidacy in California’s 41st Congressional District twice defied expectations, showing how to move a district from Safe GOP to a toss-up.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Rollins’ Overperformance
In 2024, despite a nearly five-point shift toward Trump in CA-41, and a nine-point margin for Republican Steve Garvey in the Gubernatorial race, Rollins improved his performance in every municipality compared to his 2022 run. He flipped La Quinta, a key battleground, and recorded the highest vote total ever against long-time incumbent Ken Calvert with 171,000 votes.
Among California’s “Red to Blue” races, Rollins overperformed both Harris and Schiff by more raw votes than any other candidate. Just two overperformed both Harris and Schiff, and Rollins outperformed Schiff by a larger margin than any other California challenger. His biggest margin of overperformance came in Corona —notably, Ken Calvert’s hometown —where he over-performed Harris by 4.4%.
Nationwide, Rollins ranked #6 among top Democratic overperformers compared to Harris by percentage. According to Split Ticket’s “Wins Above Replacement” model, Rollins was the #1 highest overperforming Democratic challenger in California and #5 nationwide.
A Grassroots-Powered Campaign
The financial side of the race tells an even more compelling story. Rollins' race was the fifth most expensive Democratic challenger race in the country. Unlike other high-dollar contests, Rollins’ fundraising was the primary driver of competitiveness—his campaign alone accounted for more than 50% of total Democratic spending in CA-41, significantly outpacing independent expenditures. While progressive activists say Democrats need to take extreme far-left stances to over-perform, Rollins’ campaign ran ads explicitly targeting moderate and conservative voters highlighting Rollins’s Republican family members. Rollins’ fundraising success shows small donors aren’t excited by idle promises but by compelling candidates who can win.
Will Rollins was the first Democratic challenger identified by WelcomePAC, and we invested more than $700,000 in his first campaign in 2022. His strong performance in that cycle helped put CA-41 on the national radar, transforming it from a "solid Republican" district into one of Cook Political Report’s top toss-up districts in 2024. We believe that in 2026, this race is among the most likely to flip into Democratic hands.
Why Will Rollins Overperformed
Rollins’ appeal lies in his compelling profile. A former Arnold Schwarzenegger aide and federal prosecutor who brought insurrectionists and cartels to justice, Will represents the kind of centrist Democrat who can win crossover support. Raised in a Republican family, he speaks credibly about bipartisanship, and his message has resonated across party lines.
This credibility has helped him rack up surprising endorsements. The Palm Springs Police Officers Association, which backed Calvert in 2022, flipped to support Rollins in the 2024 cycle, and even Fox News had to take notice. Rather than reject support from law enforcement, Rollins embraced it and built it into his ads. He also wasn’t afraid to confront voters’ concerns about immigration, blasting Calvert for refusing to support the toughest bipartisan border security bill in a generation, garnering attention from national press.
Rollins ran an ad that featured Republicans touting their support for Rollins. They pointed to his counterterrorism work going after the Sinaloa Cartel and MS-13 to secure the border and stop the flow of fentanyl. Republicans also praised Rollins for saving taxpayers billions of dollars working with Republicans and taking on corruption in both parties as a prosecutor.
Will Rollins shows what it takes to over-perform. Define your enemy as an extremist, and yourself in the middle. Make promises that you can keep, not ones that will increase taxes on the middle class. Focus on the issues that matter to voters, not activists.
Welcome was grateful to be on Team Rollins the past two cycles, and we plan to empower more leaders like Rollins to run in 2026 and cycles to come.