When the history of the Trump era of American politics is written, historians should pay particular attention to the voters who live in the counties the American Communities Project calls the Middle Suburbs.
This collection of blue-collar counties heavily concentrated in the Industrial Midwest has been a linchpin to President Donald Trump’s political success, giving him the margins needed to win crucial states—including the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Now, as we near the final big Trump-era election, the Middle Suburbs bear close watch not just for what they tell us about 2026—in tight races in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and even Iowa—but for what they may tell us about the nation’s future, politically and otherwise.
These “swingy” voting communities may be ripe for more change as American politics prepares to enter a new era.
Swinging in the Suburbs
Most of the community types in the ACP rubric are easy to understand politically. Their voting habits have only deepened in the last 26 years. The Urban Suburbs voted for Al Gore for president by about eight percentage points in 2000 and for Kamala Harris by about 13 in 2024. Rural Middle America voted for George W. Bush by about 15 percentage points in 2000 and for Donald Trump by 37 points in 2024.
The Middle Suburbs defy that trend. They voted for Al Gore by one point in 2000 and for Donald Trump by 13 points. In between, they voted for George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama, twice.
Only two other types have swung at all since 2000: the Hispanic Centers and the Native American Lands. The rest have consistently voted for the same party’s presidential candidate in that time, albeit by shifting margins.
But the Middle Suburbs stand out because of their geography and potential political impact. They are based in states where the vote is often close, particularly in presidential election years.
Middle Suburbs
In 2024, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by fewer than two percentage points each. They were his closest wins—and they may be ready to swing again.
Reasons for Unhappiness
Why do the Middle Suburbs have a history of swing voting, and why did they swing so hard to Trump? Because these counties are full of voters who are perpetually displeased with their representation—and the data help show that they have good reason to be unhappy.
Manufacturing, a key component of what built a lot of these communities, has been shrinking all over, but to a greater extent in the Middle Suburbs than nationally.
The numbers are down in other communities as well, but the dip arguably matters more in the Middle Suburbs because these manufacturing jobs tended to pay well. Many were union jobs with good salaries and benefits that allowed families to live comfortable lives. These were the jobs that built these communities.
These job losses also help explain another challenge in the Middle Suburbs: real losses in economic standing. Consider the average median household income of the Middle Suburb counties in 2000 and 2024, adjusted for inflation.
Overall, the number has declined by almost $7,000 since 2000, the biggest drop of any community type in the ACP rubric. This came as the overall average adjusted median household income rose slightly in that time.
To double-check the numbers and ensure they weren’t being driven by one or two outlier counties, we looked at the Middle Suburb counties individually. Of these 57 counties, 50 had seen their real median household incomes decline in that period.
To be clear, these numbers are complicated. The 2000 figures come from the decennial census and are based on 1999 incomes, while the 2024 figures come from the 2024 five-year American Community Survey data. The 2024 numbers may actually understate the impact of post-Covid inflation. But this measure is the best possible with the data available—even if the figures are not perfect matches, the general direction and size of the drop are both noteworthy.
The numbers help explain why the voters in these places have been routinely unhappy and swung from party to party in presidential elections. The jobs that built these communities are going away and incomes are suffering. People are falling behind relative to where they once were. They want someone to fix an economy that is not working for them—and has not been for quite some time.
This also helps explain why Donald Trump has been popular here. Note that big jump in the GOP presidential vote in the chart above. Trump didn’t just offer a new approach; his entire rise to the presidency has been something of a nostalgia play. The key word in “Make America Great Again” is again. It’s a promise to return to an earlier time—a time that was much better for the Middle Suburbs.
Now What?
But promising a return to a better time and delivering it are two different things.
There have been ups and down in manufacturing, of course, but the overall trend in manufacturing jobs has been downward since their peak in 1979. And though manufacturing jobs are up slightly in the last few months, they are still down by about 20,000 from when Trump took office.
Additionally, inflation has hit people across the country, but it has hit less affluent communities harder. And remember that median household incomes in the Middle Suburbs have struggled to keep up with inflation for decades.
Taken together, these factors could play a big role this fall in the close races everyone is watching.
What happens in the Middle Suburbs on November 3 in Michigan, where there are seven of these counties and a close U.S. Senate race? Or in Ohio, where there are ten such counties, and both the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races look tight? Or even Iowa, where there are only two Middle Suburb counties, but the Senate race looks to be neck-and-neck?
Whether the Middle Suburbs swing back or stay true to their Trumpier form could have huge impacts in all those races. Shifts in these communities are potentially about much more than November. They are about 2028—and beyond.
The big swing in votes in these places took place when Trump entered the political scene. He will soon be exiting it through term limits, and his presidency has not brought back what these communities were promised—at least not yet.
The Middle Suburbs have been swinging for a quarter century. The question now is whether they are swinging back toward the Democrats, staying with Trump’s Republicans, or looking for something else entirely. Whatever they decide, their choice could tell us a great deal about where American politics goes after Trump.
Editor’s note: this piece first appeared in the American Communities Project Substack.
Dante Chinni is a political and data journalist and director of the American Communities Project at Michigan State University.
This is an excellent article—helps in putting the issues together more clearly. Thanks
Anybody from the suburbs understands this. Suburban people are educated and don't necessarily vote party. In fact...many usually don't. I'm probably oversimplifying...but, don't count on it:)