Will Rollins Answers the Question
Will Rollins Answers the Question
Candidate announcement: WelcomePAC’s top challenger is back. Time to finish the job, and answer the question facing our democracy.
Writing for the New York Times last summer, the late Blake Hounshell asked “Is Jan. 6 a Winning Political Issue?”
In his words:
In California’s newly drawn 41st Congressional District, a pro-business Republican who voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election faces a primary for a House seat against a Democratic former federal prosecutor who worked cases against several alleged Capitol rioters. No race provides a starker contrast between voters’ usual kitchen-table concerns and what the leading challenger cast in an interview as a battle for “the future of democracy.”
In the aftermath of the attack on the Capitol, Democrats were faced with a choice. Would they meet the moment with the brand of big-tent, normie politics that could win over disillusioned moderates in the middle — or would they let ideological puritans co-opt the moment? Would the attack be a turning point for democracy, or just another footnote?
Challengers to incumbent Republicans would decide the answer. As we wrote in The Bulwark on the riot’s one year anniversary, Will Rollins epitomized the leadership required. The dynamic former aide to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) challenged insurrectionist Rep. Ken Calvert in CA-41 last cycle:
There are potential leaders with bipartisan credentials who have stepped forward to try to win back districts held by Trump-allied Republicans. These are January 7th Democrats: citizens with appealing backgrounds working across the aisle who have since emerged as strong candidates in winnable Republican-held congressional districts. There’s Will Rollins, a former aide to Governor Schwarzenegger, who credits January 6 with his decision to challenge GOP incumbent Ken Calvert (who supported Trump’s attempts to overturn the election).
Rollins announced his second campaign today, and there is a clear path to finishing the job.
In 2022, Rollins’ campaign focused on building bridges and finding common ground, rather than stoking partisan division. His bipartisan background, especially his work in a moderate Republican administration, was a key selling point, as was his emphasis on the future of democracy. This approach appealed to a broad range of voters, including independents (“No Party Preference” voters in California parlance) and moderate Republicans disillusioned with the current state of the GOP.
And there was proof in the results: despite being written off by the experts, Rollins was one of the cycle’s top overperformers.
Rollins was one of WelcomePAC’s top candidates in 2022, and we are again proud to support him today as he kicks off his campaign for a rematch against Calvert.
Below is a recap of what Rollins was able to accomplish last cycle and why his district is one of the most undervalued pickup opportunities for Democrats in 2024.
A Centrist Insurgency in CA-41
The newly-drawn 41st district looked ripe for what Hounshell described in his NYT piece as “a centrist insurgency”: not only had Donald Trump had won it with less than 50% of the vote share in 2020, but Rollins was the kind of dynamic, big-tent challenger capable of offering disaffected moderates a compelling alternative to the sclerotic, democracy-undermining, and scandal-ridden politics of Ken Calvert.
CA-41 had also topped WelcomePAC’s initial list of targets in late 2021 (WelcomePAC co-founders Lauren Harper and Liam Kerr went on the record in NBC News and Slate calling out Calvert as a beatable incumbent). Hounshell noted WelcomePAC’s early investments in the district despite the lack of interest from core party committees:
Official Democratic Party groups, daunted by President Biden’s low approval ratings and by a national map that is forcing them to defend dozens of seats, have yet to show interest in the race.
But Rollins has drawn about $65,000 in support from Welcome PAC, a relatively new Democratic-aligned outfit that applies insurgent tactics to support center-left candidates in swing districts.
Liam Kerr, a founder of the group, said that Rollins was the committee’s first major investment because Calvert had rarely faced a serious challenge, and because the district ought to be winnable for the right Democratic candidate.
WelcomePAC’s support would grow, and so did Rollins’ ability to flip swing voters. As the primary results began to trickle in, an NPR politics reporter did a literal double-take and declared that “Will Rollins has a shot at unseating longtime Republican incumbent Ken Calvert.”
As WelcomePAC continued to bang the drum for Rollins and produce polling and messaging to persuade on-the-fence voters in the middle, Rollins proved the experts wrong.
In line with what our polling showed was most resonant with voters, Rollins highlighted his bipartisan background (especially the work he did for Gov. Schwarzenegger and touted endorsements from Republicans and members of law enforcement). He emphasized common ground in the face of extremism. He went on Fox LA and called for a “new generation of moderates” to take up the mantle.
The result of Rollins’ mainstream, big-tent campaign against Calvert was a stunning overperformance in November. On Election Day 2022, Rollins shocked the political world and came within a mere 11,100 votes of Calvert in the general election. He lost by 4.6 points, not the 10-point blowout FiveThirtyEight had forecast. And not only was Rollins the only California Democratic challenger to win among independent (“No Party Preference”) voters, but data guru David Shor found that Rollins was the third highest performing challenger in any GOP-held seat in the country in 2022.
Second Time’s the Charm
The story of Will Rollins’ 2022 campaign in CA-41 is a testament to the potential of next-generation centrist politics in our polarized current political climate.
Recent analysis from Split Ticket finds that Democrats generally improve on their performance in their second run for office. This applies to general elections, although it should be noted that far-left insurgents have also proven this out. For example, Justice Democrats-backed Cori Bush was elected in a rematch against the incumbent in her district after losing by nearly 20 points the cycle prior.
In the case of Rollins and CA-41, one thing is clear: this is the right candidate, running for the right seat, at the right time.
The Politico story announcing the rematch is titled “A do-over in the desert.” Sometimes, you don’t get a second chance. Let’s finish the job and answer that question.
Good to see the focus on supporting more moderate/centrist candidates. Love some of our progressives out there but they simply aren’t pragmatic enough. We should be crushing these authoritarian menaces