Window into the Walz Problem
Permission structure to "run a pick six"
Former Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz is being mercilessly mocked after he claimed he was chosen to join Kamala Harris on the losing ticket because he could “code talk to white guys.”
The Minnesota governor drew the derision of conservatives after he said on his national tour stop Monday that he was picked because of his ability to “code talk to white guys watching football, fixing their truck” and “put them at ease.”
Walz added he was the “permission structure” to win over white men from rural America to vote for Democrats.
This is another chapter in a story we’ve written about: the Democratic White Guy Problem, epitomized by the Tim Walz tweet about knowing how to “run a pick six”.
Days after the Vice Presidential pick last summer, we wrote “what worries us” about Walz:
Data vs. Shapiro: Walz was picked for a vibe that can win swing voters … but the data says otherwise — Shapiro has actually been winning over swing voters in recent elections.
Vibes From Who? We have an uneasy feeling that Walz may be what very online, highly-educated liberals think that non-college white voters like. See point #1 on the data.
Pressure Groups: Walz was “the person with no organized group working against him.” The most cynical read is from Tim Miller: “might be a sign of left bullying Kamala.”
Uneasy Feeling
Why did we have that uneasy feeling in point #2?
Democrats moving towards the “power of social media” has been fun for the last two weeks (reminder: this was written last August). But it was disastrous four years ago. As Lauren wrote last year, Twitter Democrats vs. In Real Life Democrats is still a battle within the party. The hint of concern amidst this revelry about the VP pick is summed up by this Twitter user:
The “they” here is concerning - a caricature of swing voters. As one X user wrote:
And another:
Listen to the Winners
Back to 2025 … the most recent article on the Walz goof closes with a doozy:
Walz made the comments at a Harvard Kennedy School forum on Monday night on a stop of his national “listening tour.”
Democrats need to stop listening to the losers, and focus on the winners who overperform. Join us in DC at WelcomeFest on June 4 to keep the focus on the winners.
VP picks have minimal direct impact on voting behavior, even in their home state. (Sources below)
The most widely cited example of a VP pick influencing anything about a presidential election is JFK’s pick of LBJ in 1960. Johnson was the most powerful politician in Texas at a time when parties were machines. While party affiliation data of the day are not consistent, Democrats likely held a 2 to 3x advantage. Democrats had won every single statewide office and US Senate election in Texas for 90 years, i.e., since Reconstruction. Johnson’s decision not to endorse Democratic nominee Adlai Stevenson in 1952 and 1956 - he tacitly backed Eisenhower by supporting Democratic governor Shivers after he endorsed the Republican - resulted in Stevenson losing the state twice. With all of Johnson’s sway in his home state, Kennedy-Johnson carried Texas by just 24,000 votes. And on the other end of the spectrum, when one searches for VP picks that truly hurt the nominee one finds Dan Quayle. Vice President Quayle to you.
Based on the data Shapiro would not have flipped Trump’s 2% win in PA. Few if any serious analysts have suggested Tim Walz hurt Harris. So, why are we talking about this? Respectfully, it seems as though it is only because you prefer Josh Shapiro to Tim Walz (as would I, BTW).
This is all to say, dig deeper in your analysis. You’ve got better stuff in you. I’m sure of it, well sure enough to have invested $40 anyways.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227714512_Evaluating_the_Impact_of_Vice_Presidential_Selection_on_Voter_Choice?utm_source=chatgpt.com
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Histogram-of-Vice-Presidential-Home-State-Advantage_fig1_259077703
Was Tim Walz not a winner from his 2006 win and then every election in the House from that point on. He also won two Governors races? I tend to agree that he struggled a bit keeping the brand as he attempted to court the leftier flake of the Minnesota DFL but overall I liked him because of his winning track record.. A track record spanning 16 years of winning was seriously impressive.