Winning the "Somewhats"

Kamala Harris is winning the “somewhats” as she appeals to the middle.

Since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee for President, the 2024 election has been entirely upended. Trump’s chances of winning have fallen dramatically, peaking at a high of 67% on July 17 to dropping to just 48% last week.

Who are the voters who were undecided on Biden but are now supportive of Harris? Who are the voters who supported Trump when he was Biden’s opponent but are now supporting Harris against Trump? 

If this narrative for November’s election is true, there must be millions of such voters: voters who supported Trump against Biden but are now backing Harris against Trump. But this also appears to be the narrative that’s fundamentally missing from the discourse: The majority of stories have focused on the Democratic base voters who have come home, re-energized by a Harris-Walz ticket. Looking under the hood, we find a different, more compelling truth: this election is going to come down to the decisions of the “somewhat” voter.

Defining the Somewhat Voter

The “somewhats” are an intriguing pocket of the electorate. These are the people who tell pollsters they have “somewhat” favorable or unfavorable views of Trump. Despite the fact that Trump has spent nearly a decade as one of the most polarizing, controversial and divisive figures in American politics, roughly a quarter of Americans have only “somewhat” positive or negative feelings toward him. While many analysts have focused on the “double haters,” we argue that the “somewhats” are the most important voters in the electorate right now. And they’re more accurately described as the “double mehs.” 

Most Americans who feel strongly about their partisanship also have strong feelings toward one party or the other. The “mehs” just feel apathetic about politics as a whole. 

Harris’ recent polling surge can be attributed to her ability to win over the “somewhats,” who have remarkably shifted from a Trump +11 to a Harris +36 group, a net change of +46 points. No other group’s shift comes even close to the movement of the “somewhats.” 

Additionally, Harris has gained 17 points with young people of color and 16 points with women under 45. She has gained 13 points with moderates and 14 with “somewhat” liberals.

What can we attribute to Harris’ success in an exceptional shift among these undecided “somewhat” voters? She is winning them over by running to the center and winning the middle. That’s why we’ve been hammering home for weeks that Harris is a moderate. 

Understanding Undecided Voters

In a recent New York Times column from David Leonhardt, we got a deeper understanding of undecided voters. 

If you assume that most swing voters are disaffected liberals because of their youth and diversity, however, you will be wrong. For one thing, uncommitted voters are slightly more likely to be male than decided voters are. Most also do not have a four-year college degree, and working-class voters tend to be more socially conservative.

Overall, swing voters are more likely to identify as conservative than liberal, a potential advantage for Trump. Most swing voters, not surprisingly, consider themselves moderates, separate polling by YouGov has found.

Further, 48% percent of swing voters consider themselves moderate, and 25% of committed voters identify as moderate. 

These voters are most concerned about pocketbook issues, with inflation and prices at the top, followed by jobs and the economy, immigration, and healthcare. They are also less likely to prioritize abortion, climate change and civil rights. Harris can focus on bringing down costs and addressing the national deficit to win over these voters, who also want to hear a positive vision about Harris, not just anti-Trump messaging. 

The polling also shows that broad issues have a strong appeal to voters: things like protecting Social Security and Medicare, ensuring affordable housing, and strengthening healthcare access for all Americans. The “somewhats” don’t want to hear extensive policy plans – they want to see a candidate who aligns with their values. 

Voters also have more favorable views of Obama’s economic policies than those of Biden, so harkening back to tactics of Obama’s success could help us strengthen our hand with them.  

As we close in on Election Day, the triumph of the Harris-Walz campaign will be in making values-based appeals to voters who may have considered voting for Trump just a few weeks ago. They’ll join our Welcome candidates who are also working to earn the support of nuanced voters – some of whom may still be supporting Trump this election cycle. 

It takes a true pragmatist to thread the needle on appealing to this unique set of voters and a broad swath of the electorate. At the end of the day, winning the middle is the key to Democratic victories up and down the ballot.