Women Winning the Middle
Welcome's slate of women candidates are uniquely qualified to win over voters in competitive districts.
In our second electoral cycle, Welcome has endorsed nine candidates as part of our Win The Middle slate. Each member of the slate is running in a congressional district that voted for Trump in 2020, yet each brings a compelling story and background that resonates with center-right voters.
We’ve published extensive analysis and research on each candidate and district. One fact we have not yet surfaced: the majority of our Win the Middle candidates are women, whose ability to connect with a diverse set of demographics in competitive districts is critical when challenging MAGA extremists.
This memo outlines why these candidates and others are Women Winning the Middle – women uniquely qualified, positioned and equipped to flip districts blue this November.
Recent Electoral Successes
Recent election cycles have underscored the significance of the impact of women, particularly moderate Democratic women, in swing districts. Take 2018 for example:
In 2018, 64 new Democratic members were elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. 35 – more than half – of them were women.
More than 60% of the candidates who flipped swing seats that year were women.
On the Republican side, 37 new Republican members were elected to the House. Just 2 of them were women (who won in Lean/Likely Republican seats). Republican women also fared better in 2020, when they made up 40% of newly elected House Members (18 out of 45)
That 2018 Democratic freshman class included stars such as Reps. Abigail Spanberger, Elissa Slotkin, and Mikie Sherrill – all of whom are now eyeing higher office. In addition, now-seasoned incumbents like Reps. Chrissy Houlahan, Madeleine Dean, and Sharice Davids were first elected that cycle, marking the first cycle of many where women demonstrated resilience and electoral success in frontline districts.
In the 2024 primaries, Democratic women continued to show strong performances. Recent analysis by ABC shows that in the 2024 primaries, Democratic women candidates over-performed by 9 points. This trend indicates that they make up a larger share of primary winners compared to their representation among candidates: women made up 37% of all candidates and now make up 46% of all Democratic nominees for House, Senate and Governor.
These women are not just running in safe seats; they are going on the offensive in competitive and Republican-leaning districts. In races that Cook Political Report rates as “Toss Up,” women make up 44% of Democratic nominees. In Lean/Likely Republican races, that number jumps up to 55% of Democratic nominees.
Five of those women candidates in the Toss Up and Lean/Likely Republican categories are part of WelcomePAC’s Win the Middle Slate.
Slate Overview
Rep. Mary Peltola, Alaska’s at-large congressional district
Mary Peltola was first elected in a special election in 2022 and went on to win a full term later that year, becoming the first native Alaskan and first woman ever to represent Alaska in the House. She also became the first Democratic representative from Alaska in 50 years. She ran an “Alaska first” campaign and described herself as “pro-fish, pro-family, pro-freedom.” Peltola was able to localize her campaign and appeal to voters who typically were not part of the Democratic coalition, namely Republicans and independent voters.
Pelola’s Republican opponent is Nick Begich, who she has beaten twice before. Begich is a businessman who comes from a well-known political family in Alaska. He’s been endorsed by President Trump and the Freedom Caucus and has a history of extreme positions, including supporting a nationwide abortion ban. This race is widely considered a toss up and is hard to poll due to there being four candidates in the race as a result of the top-four primary system, and the fact that they use rank choice voting.
Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Rep. Peltola.
Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Washington’s third congressional district
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is a first-term member who had the surprise victory of the cycle in 2022. Despite forecasters giving her just a 2% chance of winning, MGP (as she’s known) stunned the political world by beating Republican Joe Kent by less than 3,000 votes. Prior to running for Congress, MGP was co-owner of an auto shop with her husband. As a member of Congress, she’s not afraid to vote independent of her party when it’s in the best interest of the people of her district. Alongside Peltola and ME-02 Rep. Jared Golden, Gluesenkamp Perez is a centrist leader as one of the co-chairs of the Blue Dog Coalition.
In 2024, MGP is set for a rematch with 2022 Republican opponent Joe Kent. Kent is a far-right extremist and conspiracy theorist who defeated moderate Republican incumbent Jamie Herrera Buetler following her vote to impeach former President Trump. Since Kent’s loss last cycle, he has continued to promote right wing conspiracy theories and has been tied to white supremacist groups. This race is widely considered to be a toss up, with millions of dollars expected to pour in from both parties.
Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez.
Whitney Fox, Florida’s 13th congressional district
Whitney Fox is a lifelong Tampa area resident and mom of two. She cites the future of her children as one of the primary reasons she’s running for Congress this cycle. A first time candidate, Fox but is new to the political scene, but she’s no stranger to working to provide solutions for her hometown. Prior to running for Congress, Fox worked for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority, where she worked with Democrats and Republicans at every level of government to deliver results for the people of Pinellas County. With an abortion referendum on the ballot that’s expected to energize Democratic turnout in Florida this fall, Fox has made reproductive freedom a primary focus of her campaign.
Fox is facing off against Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus who proudly called herself a “pro-life extremist”. She has been accused of lying or embellishing parts of her background, and her constituents have seen her prioritizing building a national profile over the needs of the district. Luna is seen as the favorite in this race, but recent polling has shown a closer than expected race.
Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Whitney Fox.
Janelle Stelson, Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district
Janelle Stelson spent nearly 40 years as a news anchor in Central Pennsylvania. A household name and trusted source of information throughout the district, Stelson’s nonpartisan journalism background has proven to be a huge boost to her name recognition and support in the district. Stelson is also a former Republican who became a Democrat last year after seeing her party drift too far to the right. She has been able to use her independent, trusted background to reach out to and appeal to center-right Republicans and independent voters in a district that voted for Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro by 12 points in 2022.
Her opponent in this race is Rep. Scott Perry, former head of the far-right House Freedom Caucus who has routinely taken extreme positions on many issues, including being supportive of government shutdowns and national abortion bans. Perry was also an active participant in the Jan. 6 insurrection intended to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Perry was initially seen as the favorite for this seat, but the race began to shift soon after Stelson’s primary election victory in April. Now, the race is close, and Stelson holds a fundraising advantage – a rare feat for a challenger facing a longtime incumbent.
Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Janelle Stelson.
Rebecca Cooke, Wisconsin’s third congressional district
Rebecca Cooke is a small business owner and sixth generation Wisconsinite who grew up working on her parent’s daily farm. A native of western Wisconsin, she understands the importance of reaching out to rural voters who typically don’t hear from Democrats. Her experiences growing up in the district have helped her connect with voters from across the political spectrum, making her a formidable candidate in this race.
Her opponent is freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Van Orden may be best known for his outbursts, from screaming at young Senate pages who were taking pictures in the Capitol to his rant at administration officials during a briefing. Van Orden entered this year’s general election favored to win, but Cooke has proven to be a strong fundraiser, and national Democratic groups have signaled that they will invest in this race after failing to do so in 2022.
Read Welcome’s full write-up on our endorsement of Rebecca Cooke.
Join us to Win the Middle in November
Each of these candidates brings unique experiences and compelling narratives that resonate with voters in traditionally conservative districts. With a strong focus on unity, moderation, and creating real solutions, they embody a forward-thinking approach that challenges the extremism prevalent in today's political landscape.
Join us in investing in these Women Winning the Middle to flip the House blue this November and restore common-sense governance in some of our country’s most competitive congressional districts.