Yes, Even Massachusetts
No state is too blue for leaders to recognize political reality: focusing on voters in the middle is the only way to gain popular support. Elizabeth Warren and Maura Healey are yet another case study.
High-profile Democratic strongholds have become a major problem for the national party. San Francisco’s “doom loop” is a caricature of the most damaging aspects of the Democratic brand. Losses in New York and California congressional districts that voted overwhelmingly for Biden made the difference in losing control of the House in 2022.
Massachusetts is the epitome of a blue state. Its voters are the most-Democratic of any state, and its per capita production of Democratic donors, political operatives, and presidential candidates is unrivaled.
Like many blue states, effective government remains elusive: Boston Public Schools is number one in spending per-student at $32,000 (with average results). The second worst traffic in the country also happens to be in the only big metro without congestion pricing. Housing shortages help make it the third most expensive state to live in.
National Democrats have been spared electoral blowback from the Commonwealth in the decade since Scott Brown, but Massachusetts still has something to teach the party.
Win The Middle is an emerging bank of case studies showing how Democrats can protect democracy and govern effectively by focusing on voters in the middle. Massachusetts fits the pattern.
Even in the most Democratic-dominated state in the country, political leaders who focus *only* on the overwhelmingly white, highly educated, and ideologically most liberal “progressive activist” cohort will not be broadly popular. The two most well-known politicians in Massachusetts are a classic case.
Senator Elizabeth Warren and Governor Maura Healey appear to have a lot in common. Both lawyers. Harvard grads. Live in Cambridge. Highest name recognition of any Massachusetts politicians. Beloved by progressives for battling corporations and Trump.
But they are unalike in one critical way: Healey is popular, Warren is not.
Why is Elizabeth Warren unpopular?
By 2017, reporters in Massachusetts were asking Why Is Elizabeth Warren So Hard to Love?
The data points were clear. Fewer than 45% of voters thought she deserved re-election, and she was far less popular than the state’s Republican governor — even in the Trump era.
As the 2020 presidential primary unfolded, the national press started asking similar questions: Why isn't Elizabeth Warren more popular in Massachusetts? The data points again abounded: even in the wave election of 2018, Warren won fewer votes than the Republican governor she shared the ballot with. FiveThirtyEight ranked her as the least popular Democratic senator in the country relative to state partisanship.
Heading into her 2024 re-election, Warren remains on shaky ground with Massachusetts voters. Just 43% think she should run again. Polling from Warren’s own former strategist has her within the margin of error in a hypothetical matchup against Republican Charlie Baker.
Warren will cruise to re-election, but the tension between her national profile and local unpopularity still holds important lessons — as does the gap between her popularity and that of the new Massachusetts Governor.
Why is Maura Healey popular?
Dozens of think pieces were spawned from Warren falling flat in the presidential primary — and being less popular than her home state GOP governor.
But it is the new Governor who is deserving of comparison, and more national attention as a model for how to maintain your base while winning the middle.
For progressives, this is important because making progress only happens after winning. For Americans in the center who want democracy to survive, this is important because of who these Democrats can beat in general elections (authoritarian Republicans) by taking this approach.
On the campaign trail, and now in the corner office, Healey has focused in the mainstream lane. She launched her gubernatorial campaign by pledging to “continue what’s working” under GOP Gov. Charlie Baker. One of her first acts as Governor was to unveil a tax cut plan targeting the state’s competitiveness for business and talent.
As headlined in POLITICO’s “Moderate Massachusetts”, a March poll from PFP shows a highly popular Healey. The new governor enjoyed a large net positive (+38) — nearly triple that of Warren.
Both Warren and Healey are grounded in progressive values, with unassailable credentials on core Democratic issues.
So why is Warren unpopular with Massachusetts voters, especially compared to Healey? For the same reason Warren remains so very popular with a small but influential group of progressive activists — she is viewed as far, far to the left of the median voter.
PFP asked voters to place themselves on an ideological spectrum from 0 (extremely liberal) to 10 (extremely conservative). Then it asked them to do the same for Healey and Warren.
Voters place themselves just left of center middle on average (4.5) and give Massachusetts Democrats overall a 2.8. Warren on average is viewed as even more liberal than her party (2.3) while Healey is viewed as more moderate (3.2).
More than two-thirds of voters place themselves in the middle (3-7), and nearly 6 in 10 view Healey as within that range.
But a majority (53%) rate Warren as extremely liberal (0-2). A full third of voters give Warren the most extreme rating, compared to just 13% who give Healey a 0.
Elizabeth Warren’s problem in Massachusetts mirrors the Democratic Party’s problem nationwide. Both are seen as too far to the left, and both pay a popularity price as a result.
A pre-midterm poll conducted by Biden pollster Impact Research for Third Way and WelcomePAC found that Americans (especially swing voters) view Democrats as out of touch on the issues and ideologically.
Nationally, voters place the Democratic Party far to their left on the same scale on which they graded Warren — and as with Warren, they placed themselves closer to the GOP than the Democrats.
The whole writeup from Third Way is worth checking out, especially this visual:
To solve their national problem, Democrats will have to solve their blue state problem. Looking for what’s broken — and what’s working — is essential to learning how to win the middle. PFP will have a Q2 poll out soon, and there are plenty more blue state lessons left to learn in blue states like Massachusetts.